The verdict of Manchester City’s long drawn-out Financial Fair Play case vs Premier League is due ‘any day’ and until this drops, the footballing world realistically has no idea what the outcome, which will inevitably be dragged out for a few extra months via an appeal, will be.
It’s unclear how Man City‘s Associated Party Transaction (APT) victory will impact their FFP situation (if at all), but they have remained bullish in insisting on their innocence**, as their massive January spend on transfers**, plus lucrative new deals for Pep Guardiola and Erling Haaland, shed light on their unrelenting confidence.
So, City chiefs would be left mightily red-faced if the verdict goes the Premier League’s way, with relegation (likely via an insurmountable points deduction) mooted as one of the harshest possible punishments.
Assuming the worst outcome for Man City does happen (it probably won’t, but just indulge us as a far more feasible fine would be a colossal anti-climax), a large portion of their current 28-man squad (as listed on Transfermarkt) would surely leave if a guilty verdict precedes relegation from the Premier League.
With that, from least to most likely, we have ranked Man City’s entire 2024/25 squad on the likelihood of them departing after an FFP-enforced relegation…
We also did a version of this article with Man City’s 2023/24 squad as we foolishly did not foresee this situation dragging on for more than two sodding years… so give that a read too, if you like).
28) Scott CarsonHe’s never leaving.
READ: Man City stars reassigned after guilty FFP verdict leads to Premier League relegation
27) Claudio EcheverriEarmarked as a top talent for the future, Echeverri was only plucked from River Plate in January 2024. The 19-year-old would benefit from an unlikely relegation as he’d be eased into the first team and get more minutes in the Championship than this season’s tally of zero.
26) Nico O’Reilly20-year-old O’Reilly is further along than Echeverri on Man City’s development line and scored a blushes-sparing brace in this season’s FA Cup win vs Plymouth Argyle. Were they to be relegated, Guardiola would be wise to bed in O’Reilly and other academy products in one of five steps to make the most of their road back to the Premier League.
25) Vitor ReisWhile Man City’s other January recruits already have a first-team footing, £29m signing Reis is yet to make his debut. But like Echeverri, it would not be a disaster if he was forced to spend a season in the Championship.
24) Oscar Bobb
Bobb’s return from his cruciate ligament injury is not too far away and this cannot come soon enough for Guardiola, with Man City’s sudden decline increasing his chances of becoming a regular starter upon his comeback. Provided his knee issue has not stunted his development too much, Guardiola has a gem on his hands heading into next season, especially if they are in the Championship *wink*.
23) Abdukodir KhusanovThe second of City’s January signings to feature, Khusanov was thrown in at the deep end against Chelsea on his debut and floundered, but he’ll be better for that performance and clearly has huge potential. You could see the Uzbekistan international and Reis as Guardiola’s starting centre-backs in the division below.
22) Rico LewisThe 20-year-old England international – already with 87 senior appearances – has been part of the decline suffered by City’s knackered squad and desperately needs a rest. Still, Kyle Walker’s likely long-term replacement has the necessary tools to kick on again, and his affinity with the club as an academy product would likely lead to him staying loyal.
21) Stefan OrtegaOrtega has fumbled the opportunity to become City’s new N0.1 as he and Ederson have each been shaky (to put it kindly) this season. Thinking ahead, Guardiola will need a top-tier replacement for his current shot-stoppers. But for now, the German is more likely than his Brazilian counterpart to stick around for at least another year.
20) Nico GonzalezFaced with the unenviable task of replacing Rodri, it remains to be seen whether Gonzalez is up to the task or proves another Kalvin Phillips. He would be at risk of slipping to the bench when the Ballon d’Or winner returns, but that may not be the case with relegation thrown into the mix.
19) Omar MarmoushThe clear standout of Man City’s January signings, Marmoush is the type of Julian Alvarez-esque forward they sorely missed at the start of this season and he’s already established himself as the best of Guardiola’s supporting attackers behind Haaland.
If his arrival hadn’t come during the most recent window, his placing on this list would have been much different with several Premier League and European sides sniffing before Man City landed him.
MORE MAN CITY FFP COVERAGE ON F365…
👉 Man City FFP: Ex-Premier League chief reveals verdict prediction after hearing from ‘trusted sources’
👉 Man City FFP: Verdict to ‘explode’ before ‘chaos’ ensues as Sky Sports ‘problem’ explained
👉 Man City FFP: Relegation ‘tariff’ set by commission upon guilty verdict amid ‘corporate fraud’
18) Phil Foden
Foden has gone to sh*t after sparkling for Man City as he stepped up in Kevin De Bruyne’s absence last season.
A truly special footballer who has a tendency to leave you feeling frustrated, which was proven by his woes against Albania on Friday night. The local boy factor suggests he would be more inclined than City’s other biggest stars to remain post-expulsion, though there have been lingering murmurings of interest from Europe.
17) James McAteeGuardiola’s use (or lack thereof) of McAtee must leave the talented midfielder wondering what he is doing wrong as his performances have warranted more game time. The head coach admitted in December that he’s “unfairly” treated the 22-year-old, who could not be blamed if he showed the finger to the boss to leave relegated City in the dust for grander pastures.
16) Mateo KovacicThe ex-Chelsea man has been a snip at £25m and his experience would come in handy in the Championship alongside City’s young guns. While a considerable portion of Guardiola’s squad would attract more interest than 30-year-old Kovacic, a shock move to La Liga has been mentioned.
15) Manuel AkanjiAkanji has been another bargain buy for Man City, though his performances have declined this season as he and his fellow defenders have made errors with increasing regularity. Like Kovacic, Akanji is also under contract until 2027 and won’t be flooded with offers.
14) Jeremy DokuFor a long time, it felt inevitable that Doku would end up signing for Liverpool, though they won’t be too dismayed at missing out having witnessed his showings for Man City.
The Belgium international is capable of being electrifying or infuriating in equal measure as he’s yet to master the final pass or shot. Mind, it would be bloody fun to watch Championship defences attempt to deal with his flashy skills.
13) Nathan AkeSimilar story to Akanji, really. Overall, the Netherlands international has surpassed expectations at the Etihad after his arrival was met with bemusement, but his injury record, mixed recent form and age lends you to think that Man City would have a better chance of ousting other defenders.
12) Matheus NunesNunes’ £53m move to Man City is one of the most pointless transfers in recent Premier League history; he barely got a look-in before becoming Guardiola’s utility man this season. The 26-year-old midfielder is under contract until 2028 (gulp), but he has enough credit from his Wolves days to earn a decent move when the time comes.
11) SavinhoCity’s only 2024 summer signing for a fee, Savinho has shone in flashes this season but has resembled Doku more than he would like in recent months as he’s had supporters tear their hair out. Still, he’s a player with immense potential and several elite European clubs would not mind having him.
10) Josko GvardiolThe less we say about the defensive side of Gvardiol’s game this season, the better. But in attack, he remains a revelation as one of Guardiola’s most threatening players.
With his slack defensive work, Gvardiol’s transition into left-back under Guardiola may eventually be to the detriment of his overall game, but he would be a perfect fit for Arsenal with Mikel Arteta’s obsession clear.
READ: Pep Guardiola backed to leave Man City before ‘next season’ for two reasons with replacement mooted
9) John StonesThis has been a season for injury-plagued Stones to forget and it’s been reported that a summer exit would be ‘right for all parties’.
8) Ilkay GundoganGundogan’s legs have gone as his return to Man City has been another fine example of why you should never go back. But he loves the Cityzens and they love him, so it would not be overly surprising if he gave them another year after his current deal expires in the summer if worse comes to worst.
7) Ruben DiasThe Dias vs Virgil van Dijk debate ended for now amid the Liverpool star’s resurgence and the City centre-back’s 24/25 slump.
There may be an element of Dias being dragged down by his teammates and we should get a true reflection of where he’s at after a much-needed summer of rest for City’s weary stars, but Dias would still have no trouble getting a really good move if he doesn’t fancy the Championship.
6) Jack GrealishGrealish’s exit from Man City is long overdue as Guardiola’s pursuit to turn him into the perfect winger has taken away his stardust. With several wingers ahead in the pecking order, the Englishman needs a fresh start no matter what happens with the FFP hearing.
5) Bernardo SilvaSilva has been perennially linked with Barcelona and PSG in recent years and these moves could still be on the table for the veteran midfielder.
4) EdersonHeavily linked with the Saudi Pro League last summer, that is presumably where the Brazil international is heading soon whether Man City get relegated or not. He’s among several faded, once-great stars in this past-it squad.
READ: Ten reasons why this has been the worst Premier League season ever
3) RodriMan City have sorely missed Rodri and their rapid decline this season would not have been so sudden had the Spaniard been available, but his immense contributions would have only delayed the inevitable as this squad was only heading in one direction.
Rodri’s return cannot come quickly enough for Man City, but they might need to make the most of him while they can as relegation would only expedite his potential move to Real Madrid, which feels inevitable in the next year or two.
2) Erling HaalandSpeaking of Man City stars signing for Real Madrid, Haaland could join Rodri in becoming a Galactico if various Spanish outlets are to be trusted (spoiler: they are not).
Haaland is reportedly deadset against missing out on a single Champions League campaign, so don’t get him started on the prospect of a season in the Championship.
1) Kevin De Bruyne
The fifth most valuable footballer due to be out of contract this summer, De Bruyne would much rather finish his career against Inter Miami than Oxford United, which is fair enough.