Manchester City are waiting to hear the verdict into the Premier League charges they face, so what happens if they clear the most serious allegations?
Comments
Sport
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - MAY 19: MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - MAY 19: Khaldoon Al Mubarak, Chairman of Manchester City, and Pep Guardiola, Manager of Manchester City, poses for a photo with the Premier League title trophy following the team's victory in the Premier League match between Manchester City and West Ham United at Etihad Stadium on May 19, 2024 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
Pep Guardiola and Khaldoon Al Mubarak would have plenty to say
The charges verdict is coming. Repeat: the charges verdict is coming. Nobody knows exactly how or when, which is why chancers have been speculating for weeks that it is imminent.
Whatever else you can say about the Premier League and Manchester City, and whether for better or worse, they really have both excelled at keeping all details of this private arbitration out of anyone's sight. But logic and a bit of educated guesswork will tell you that it won't be far off.
Article continues below
Pep Guardiola should never be taken too accurately in these kind of things, but safe to say when he said last month that the verdict would be in a month he won't have been too far off. And as judgement day approaches, so the possibilities come closer.
City could be chucked out of the league or handed a massive points deduction, permanently placing an asterisk over their successes over the last 10 years. Or they could be fully vindicated, picking up 115 victories to leave the authority of the Premier League a smouldering pile of ruin.
Somewhere in the middle is more likely, and it will hinge on whether the major charges relating to nine years of misrepresenting finances are proven. If they are, the worst possible punishments are in play for City but if all they are found guilty of is not co-operating with the investigation then it will have embarrassed the Premier League.
Enough has been explored about the Premier League winning, so what would definitely happen if City come out with a victory on points?
Premier League issue denial
It's really not so long ago that the results of the clash between the pair over Associated Party Transactions came out. Both sides claimed victory, with City insisting that the unlawful bits of the rules made them null and void and the league stating publicly that they were just a few minor bits that could be tweaked with a vote.
It was then made apparent that it was the league who were spinning more than a Shane Warne ripper but that won't stop either side from trying to claim they have won this one. The stakes are too high, and the likelihood of victory on at least some counts for the league given the scant information we do about City's lack of co-operation means that even if City win on most points their beaten opponents will not let them enjoy it.
An appeal will almost certainly follow as well, so more legal fees. Joy.
Conspiracy theories and caveats
If City are not guilty of the most serious charges, there will be no shortage of amateur lawyers from Caveat Chambers queueing up to explain why they're not really innocent. Timebarred FC may have to be retried but no doubt there will be investigations into whether any of the judges have ever been on an Etihad flight.
The Court of Arbitration for Sport made clear that it was not frivolous for UEFA to bring their case, and the same has to be true of the Premier League. There will be evidence that looks bad and is bad for City.
The key is whether that will be enough to convince the three-man independent panel that City are guilty of what they are accused of. Even if that isn't deemed to be the case, anyone deluded or desperate enough will cling to any conspiracy theories they can as to why the result did not go in the way they have been telling everyone on social media it will go for years.
Pep brings receipts and popcorn
Guardiola's press conference after City were charged was one of the best he has ever done in his career. The fire and the emotion was raging as he slammed the reaction to the charges for 'already condemning' the club and vowed to go down to League One with Mike Summerbee if needed.
At first, the City boss was happy to let things play out but his patience disappeared and he has been itching for a verdict for ages. Recently, he has been looking forward to speak his mind about not only the charges but everything that has been said about the club in the meantime.
Guardiola keeps receipts - remember how viciously he snarled Burnley after CAS? - and he won't be short of things to bring up in press conferences if the result goes City's way. Those attending may just sit back with popcorn and let him go.
Party at the Etihad
Jurgen Klopp promised a party in Ibiza if City are found guilty to celebrate league titles that Liverpool will feel should have been awarded to them. The most serious charges actually pre-date Klopp's Liverpool challenging for the title but there we are.
Still, if it is the reverse result then it will be some atmosphere at the Etihad for the next home game. The first match after City were charged, it electrified the home crowd (after Guardiola's rousing press conference) and helped inspire the team to win the Treble.
They can't do anything like that this season, but it would still represent a huge uplift in a stadium where the atmosphere has been stale in recent months. There may even be a return for the Lord Pannick banner or a new one made to mark the result.
Chairman doubles down
City have maintained from the outset that they have an irrefutable body of evidence to support their position and the mantra since 2022 has been 'business as usual'. That has been seen on the pitch, in sponsorship deals, but also with new deals such as the ones signed by Guardiola and Erling Haaland this season.
Whatever the verdict, Khaldoon Al Mubarak has promised to air his 'very blunt views' and that will surely come at the summer by the latest if not in an official statement from the club when the verdict drops.
"Obviously I cant talk about them, unfortunately, for legal reasons. What I would typically do is always comment after," he said previously in an end-of-season interview with club media.
"We're going through the legal process, these are proceedings that take whatever time they take. When we're done, we'll have a conversation and I'll give you my very blunt views. I have very strong views on that but I will unfortunately be restrained today."
Nothing changes
Let's be honest, everybody has already made their mind up. Quite inexplicably given nobody has seen any of the evidence, football fans and pundits up and down the country are unlikely to be moved by a lengthy document of legal and financial scrutiny that few will bother to read.
Whether it is the OJ Simpson or Lance Armstrong gifs online or in the media through the likes of Jamie Carragher, Javier Tebas and Jose Mourinho, the verdict will not shift many opinions that have been so entrenched. As the Manchester Evening News explained earlier this week, it is unlikely that City will be able to get damages for their case so it isn't like there is going to be a widespread clampdown for anyone spouting things that aren't true.
City are still a Premier League member so still have to deal with the league all the time. The world will keep on turning.
Everything changes
At the same time, it can't be the same. As football finance expert Kieran Maguire told the Manchester Evening News on the day that the charges dropped: "Such is the severity of the allegations and accusations that the position for one of the two parties is going to be untenable by the end of this."
If City lose, senior resignations have to come and the same must be the case if the Premier League are beaten. If Richard Masters has presided over nearly five years of investigation and then an arbitration process of more than two years, only to fail to produce the evidence to back up an almighty claim, a new broom has to come sweeping through the league.
Then there is the day-to-day, where everything can stop being linked to the charges. Kitmen can leave and new signings can join without every move being seen through the prism of a world potentially being turned upside down.
Lastly, and most seriously, it will bring closure for City fans. All of them have trusted in the club but they can't have known whether they were or were not guilty because they - like everyone else - haven't seen the evidence.
If City are cleared of the most serious charges, it would be the best consolation possible for the last few years where they have seen all kinds of allegations and comments hurled at their club and aspersions cast on the successes they have seen with their own eyes.