On Tuesday, the Taiwanese Defence Ministry released a report to local lawmakers stating that the Chinese military could invade the island nation as soon as 2027.
Taiwan prepares for a Chinese invasion in 2027.
The Chinese military has been steadily increasing pressure on its neighbor through large-scale military exercises around the island nation. Indeed, Beijing has been sending record numbers of combat aircraft and warships around Taiwan, while it continues to build up its capabilities that would enable it to invade.
In response, Taipei is strengthening its defenses—with the uncertain hope that it will be able to stop an onslaught.
Taiwan Mulls How to Stop a Chinese Invasion
On Tuesday, the Taiwanese Defence Ministry released a report to local lawmakers stating that the Chinese military could invade the island nation as soon as 2027. Alongside the report, the Taiwanese military announced upcoming war games that will simulate a Chinese invasion.
On the same day, the Chinese military conducted a large-scale deployment of naval and air assets near the island nation.
Taiwanese Defence Minister Wellington Koo Li-hsiung told reporters that “a large-scale deployment of PLA air and naval forces [was] approaching Taiwan’s 24-nautical-mile line.”
Chinese sorties often cross into Taiwan’s “air defense identification zone”—an area around its airspace where Taiwan requests that incoming planes identify themselves, though short of its airspace proper. “Forty-three of those sorties crossed the median line [which serves as an unofficial boundary] of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s northern, central, southwestern and eastern air defence identification zone,” the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense stated.
Exercises like that are far from unusual. Indeed, the Chinese military conducts combat patrols near Taiwan almost every week. However, the latest deployment was unusual because there was an escalation of forces.
“Their warships remained in the area after Monday morning’s drills, and additional warplanes entered Taiwan’s ADIZ in the afternoon,” Koo said in his statement. “They are deliberately creating instability in the Taiwan Strait through repeated grey-zone provocations, once again proving that they are the troublemaker in the region.”
Although a potent military force in its own right, the Taiwanese military is far inferior to its Chinese neighbor.
The Chinese Communist Party has repeatedly insisted that it will eventually “reunify” with Taiwan, subjugating the island to its control. Beijing has said that it would prefer peaceful reunification, but is ready for war if Taiwan does not agree to peaceful means.
America’s Longtime Ambiguity on Taiwan
What makes the situation more complicated is the fact that the United States remains ambivalent about coming to the aid of Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. Successive U.S. administrations have held a pro-Taiwan position, but they have invariably declined to firmly commit U.S. forces to Taiwan’s defense in the event of a conflict.
Even without such a commitment, the United States is the most important backer of Taiwan, with regular foreign military sales and joint training events. American special operations forces are often training with their Taiwanese counterparts, honing skills such as unconventional warfare and direct action. Earlier this week, the U.S. and Taiwan signed an agreement to expand their military cooperation and intelligence sharing.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing inspecial operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured inBusiness Insider,Sandboxx, andSOFREP.
Image: Shutterstock / Jeng Bo Yuan.