Matisse Thybulle made his long-awaited season debut earlier this week after missing the first 67 games of the Portland Trail Blazers’ campaign. While the team had managed without him, the absence of Thybulle’s defensive prowess had been noticeable.
The 28-year-old underwent a procedure during the preseason to address inflammation in his right knee. In late November, he suffered an ankle sprain as part of his ramp-up to return to the court.
The Australian national representative has consequently played a grand total of four games this season. Despite the convalescence, the Thybulle has returned largely as he was before. An elite team defender who causes havoc for opposing offenses, sniping at stray balls with pressure and savvy.
As if to remind us of his impact, Thybulle sealed his first game back against the Toronto Raptors last Sunday, blocking a three-point attempt with seconds remaining. While his offensive output should never be counted on, Thybulle has shown an ability to hit the three-ball, maintaining a career long-ball rate of almost 34 percent.
The question now focuses on his pending player option and his place on this young Blazers roster.
The skillset
Thybulle has been aptly described as a defensive savant. A two-time All-Defensive Second Team honoree who might be one of the most disruptive and opportunistic steal and block fiends currently active in the NBA. This is exemplified by the fact that he’s never finished a season below the 94th percentile in both categories among wings.
Standing 6’5, it’s Thybulle’s seven-foot wingspan, elite instincts, quick lateral movement and experience allow him to cause problems in passing lanes and in one-on-one scenarios.
Unlike defensive-minded teammate Toumani Camara, who always looks like he’s on full tilt, Thybulle uses smooth, stealth-like movements to put himself in the right position. His measurements allow him to poke and steal loose balls, seemingly appearing out of nowhere in passing lanes.
On offense, it’s beyond the arc and in the dunker spot where he operates with very little in between. He’s not putting the ball on the floor for long and he’s not a playmaker and that’s fine. The Blazers need wings who can move without the ball and pull up competently from three at least a couple of times a game.
Through four games, he’s scored 3.8 points on a combined 2 of 7 from three (28.6 percent), while averaging 3.8 boards, 1.3 assists and 2.3 steals. Aside from the steals, hardly numbers to crow about but again they’re on the smallest of sample sizes.
The contract situation
This summer, Thybulle has a player option worth $11.6 million. My guess is that he picks it up, but nothing is etched in stone. While the amount is probably appealing to a defense-first wing who’s barely seen the court this season, it’s still below the $14.1 million non-taxpayer Mid-Level Exception for next season.
We know other teams have had serious interest in Thybulle in the past. Let’s not forget his current contract was the product of an offer sheet signed with the Dallas Mavericks during the 2023 offseason. Granted, he played 71 games during the prior campaign, however his recent convalescence shouldn’t signal any future issues.
I still think it’s unlikely another franchise puts that amount of money before Thybulle, given his lack of playing time this past season. But it only takes one team to offer him a Mid-Level-like amount for multiple years, for his head to turn. Especially if a contender feels they are an elite wing defender away from figuring prominently in the postseason.
The fit
Assuming Thybulle picks up the option, there could be a depth issue. The rebuilding Blazers have recently been able to develop a number of young wings, namely Toumani Camara, Shaedon Sharpe, Kris Murray, Dalano Banton and, to a lesser extent, Rayan Rupert.
Camara and Sharpe are serious parts of this franchise’s future, Banton is a pending free agent and Rupert is still a project. But what about Murray?
The 24-year-old has likely been the biggest beneficiary of Thybulle’s absense this season. While his 4.1 points on 24.2 percent from three, 2.5 boards and 0.9 assists might not be anything to spruik, Murray has enjoyed a productive year. He’s contributed as a defense-first wing, yet nowhere near as impactful as Thybulle’s.
However, Murray may have the edge on Thybulle when it comes to offense, offering a touch more versatility being able to put the ball on the floor a little more frequently.
As we’ve seen in recent months, the Blazers might be looking at the NBA Playoffs earlier than most of us thought. If that’s the case, how would they feel about redundancies at the same position? While Murray is younger, he’s already 24. Has his development gone as far as it can go?
Thybulle is older but, if his body is right, is arguably in his prime. Do the Blazers want a veteran wing with real defensive ability on hand if they make a serious run sooner than later?
All questions that need to be answered.
The next 11 games
The Blazers have 11 games left. That’s 11 outings for Thybulle to level out his shooting, maintain a two-plus steal average and at least, hint, that he might be capable of edging closer to that All-Defensive form. The guy that played a key role in the Australian Boomers’ bronze-medal performance at the Tokyo Olympics.
Could General Manager Joe Cronin be using the next few games to ensure he’s convinced either way on Thybulle? Could he be watching him while also projecting where Murray might be 12 months from now?
If the Blazers truly are looking at a serious run at the NBA Playoffs in the next 24 months, they could start nipping and tucking at this roster by removing superfluous skillsets.
For me, Thybulle is obviously the better defender. On offense, it might be a wash. The argument that Murray is younger and still has time to grow is fast becoming irrelevant with him mere months away from his 25th birthday.
As we’ve seen over the past week, Thybulle has returned to the court without missing a beat defensively. If he’s able to maintain this over the next three weeks and he opts into his player option the Blazers should hold onto him, providing his body his right.
Whether they’re willing to relieve logjams at his position remains to be seen. But it’ll be interesting to see how the roster comes together and whether it features both Thybulle and Murray.