Come NFL Draft Night, it would be something of a football bummer if a bad NFL team selects running back Ashton Jeanty.
Graded by former NFL scouts as a top-five player in this draft class, the Boise State alum has the talent to succeed with any team.
But at what cost?
If the 5-foot-8 ½, 211-pounder is getting clobbered every week within a low-talent offense that has no realistic shot at the Super Bowl for a few years, he may lose some of his edge before his drafting team can acquire enough talent to make a big run.
So while Jeanty would provide a lift to teams like the Patriots, Jaguars, Raiders, Jets, Panthers and Saints who hold picks No. 4 through 9, here’s hoping he goes to a roster that’s more capable than those five.
The Bears, who seem to have improved their blocking and hired a bright offensive coach in Ben Johnson, may be a better landing spot than any club in the above quintet. They hold the 10th overall pick.
But Da Bears still have a long way to go, and second-year quarterback Caleb Williams has to improve at throwing on time and on target.
Potential better spots for Jeanty would be the Cowboys (12), the offensively loaded Bengals (17), the Bucs (19), Broncos (20), Chargers (22), Packers (23) or Rams (26).
The same logic applies to another running back graded highly by former NFL scouts, North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton.
A counterargument is that Saquon Barkley’s NFL career wasn’t badly hurt by the mediocre Giants drafting him second overall in 2018.
Despite the hits he took in four-plus seasons with the Giants, who fielded bad offenses for the most part, Barkley still had ample ability when he became eligible for his second NFL contract.
He joined the Eagles last March. He then put together the best season of his excellent career.
Barkley, appearing as explosive as ever, averaged 5.8 yards per carry and 125.3 rushing yards per game. He went for an additional 499 rushing yards in four postseason games, abetting Philadelphia’s run to its second Super Bowl trophy.
The dominance showed how much better a great running back can be when he is supported by a first-rate line and other standouts. Barkley led the NFL last season in yards before contact. Late in games, running against exhausted opponents tenderized by Eagles blockers, he often broke off long touchdown runs.
Barkley, 28, is believed to have so much life left in his body that sharp general manager Howie Roseman this month issued him a two-year, $41-million extension that made him the highest-paid running back in NFL history.
A draft-time comparison between Jeanty to Barkley must allow for Barkley’s ultra-rare traits.
When he entered the NFL, the Penn State alum weighed 233 pounds and ran the 40-yard dash in 4.41 seconds. He had run away from lighter defenders throughout his college career. He outsprinted USC speedster Adoree Jackson, a cornerback he outweighed by 40 pounds, in the Rose Bowl. The Titans would draft Jackson 18th overall, after he matched Barkley’s 4.41 clocking at the NFL combine.
Barkley had the bulk and breakaway speed to weather his Giants tenure, in which he also sat out 14 games after tearing a knee ligament in 2020.
Jeanty is elusive, quick, powerful and fast. But he has neither Barkley’s home run speed nor comparable bulk.
In style, he was more of a power runner with Boise State than Barkley was at Penn State.
Jeanty looks capable of gaining ultra-contested yards in the NFL, in addition to defeating defenders downfield. But make no mistake: he’ll be spending his Sundays in heavy traffic. That’s where his greatness stands out. His first four to five seasons on his first contract will put a lot of hits on his body.
It’s a strange dynamic. If Jeanty goes higher in the draft, he’ll get a lot more money, which is a much-welcomed outcome for any football player but particularly someone who risks his bodily and brain health to the extent a running back does. At the Raiders’ slot, No. 6, he’d get about $30 million guaranteed. It would be exciting to see him get that payday. But on the football field, he’d likely be better off at a draft slot that pays him less money. The same applies to Hampton, a 6-foot, 221-pounder with 4.46 speed.
Jeanty to the Broncos or Chargers would be a good football outcome. Both of those AFC West teams made the playoffs last year, have a franchise quarterback under age 28 and should be improved next season.