As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes an integral part of global societies and states’ nuclear postures, the need for responsible nuclear policies has never been more urgent. Heightened competition to master new security-related technologies is raising concerns about substantial shared security risks such as climatic catastrophes or uncontrollable proliferation. Although AI provides a promising future in many fields like healthcare, agriculture, and climate change, even leveraging the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The inevitable risks involved in bringing cutting-edge technologies and an arms race among nuclear states raise significant questions.
The nuclear conundrum is no longer what it was in earlier nuclear ages. The emerging strategic environment is significantly different from the Cold War, characterized by the involvement of multiple actors in the picture. The precarious security environment in Eastern Europe can quickly escalate into a nuclear war and needs reliable solutions from the Nuclear Weapon States (NWS). The last legally binding agreement between Russia and the US, the NEW START Treaty will end in 2026, which opens the door for states to pursue their aggressive military operations.
In the age of advanced weaponry, the ramifications of even a limited nuclear conflict are unimaginable. One of the greatest threats to human security is the environmental effects of even a small-scale nuclear conflict. There has never been a more pressing need to reevaluate the nuclear winter theory.
Nuclear Winter Hypothesis
The foundation of the theory rests on the idea of Curtzen and Birks (1982), pointing out that nuclear war can ignite extensive forest fires causing dark smoke in the troposphere. However, Richard P. Turco, Owen B. Toon, Thomas P. Ackerman, James B. Pollack, and Carl Sagan in 1983 at the peak of the nuclear arms race, coined the term “Nuclear Winter” to analyze the effects of limited nuclear war between nuclear giants. The researchers caught political attention and were recognized as ‘TTPAS’ based on their surnames. There is a known fact of physical phenomenon produced by the atomic explosion- causing heat rays, electromagnetic waves, and radiocarbon shock waves. The theory posits the idea that the soot and smoke caused by the nuclear explosion, especially in cities and industrial areas can rise and linger on into the stratosphere, dropping the earth’s temperature to its lowest. The smoke in the atmosphere would block out the sunlight, inducing a cooling effect on the earth’s surface as well as heating the stratosphere, destroying the ozone layer and producing high-frequency ultraviolet rays altering the planet’s climate.
While TTPAS only used a one-dimensional radiative-connective model, Aleksandrov and Stenchikov (1983) were the pioneers in implementing a three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM), that included the effects of oceans in nuclear explosion. The advanced research showed that there would be a spillover effect of nuclear war that might cause the collapse of global agriculture and the hunger of billions of people, even in areas that were not directly participating in the war, while also killing hundreds of millions in battle zones.
Despite detractors and scrutiny, the theory stands its ground and got more standing in the 21st century through advanced models like the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The evolutions of computing and climate modeling fueled the discussion on the deadly climatic impacts of nuclear war, spurring negotiations on arms control and disarmament among NWS. As the magnitude of impacts depends on the number and yield of nuclear weapons, the advancement of nuclear arsenals through AI development is only making them more deadly.
In 2007, Robock et al. conducted new climate model simulations with contemporary state-of-the-art, GMC-ModelE. This comprises a module to estimate aerosol particle movement and removal. Using a scenario with nuclear warfare, the model was used to estimate the climate reaction producing 50 and 150Tg of smoke. The amplitude of the case was compared to the previous millennium’s climate change. The smoke can produce a cooling effect larger than that experienced 18000 years ago during the last Ice Age.
At the crossroads
The past decade has witnessed the rapid acceleration of AI capabilities and their intersection with military purposes. Military integration of AI has the potential to impact deterrence architecture and the strategic stability of nuclear-armed states. Incorporating machine learning programs in early-warning missile systems, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), and nuclear command, control, and communication (NC3) impacts the culture of secrecy in the nuclear domain. Increasing the chances of miscalculation and misinterpretation among nuclear-armed states. States are investing heavily in the adoption of advanced AI technologies, increasing the potential risk of nuclear war.
India is exploring possibilities for the application of deep learning in radar technology and intends to launch a fleet of 50 AI-enabled surveillance satellites. Meanwhile, the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency intends to spend heavily on data-labeling services over five years to improve machine learning skills for geospatial and satellite imagery analysis. Enhanced sensing networks and capturing complex statistical data would help confidence building in one way, but in another way, it increases the insecurity and ambiguity among NWS.
Conclusion
With the ongoing technological arms race and advancement in nuclear capabilities through incorporating AI systems, states need to study the climate impacts of nuclear war. Against this backdrop, the research on nuclear winter theory advances with AI-powered climate models that provide stronger grounds for the theory, but it still hasn’t gained much-needed attention in the strategic environment. Though the initial research emphasizes limited nuclear war, in the digital age even limited nuclear conflict will have catastrophic climatic impacts on the planet and humans.
In April 2021, US Congress stipulated the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) to study and evaluate the climate effects of nuclear war. The study focused on the detrimental effects of soot and other fragments on weather, agriculture, and long-term ecosystem viability, as well as current models of nuclear explosions with regard to fires and atmospheric transport of gases from nuclear war-related explosions.
The study on nuclear famine provides new input for understanding the environmental impacts of nuclear conflict. It is evident from the conversation thus far that the nuclear winter theory still has significant ramifications for global security in fields where scientific understanding has been inadequate since the 1980s. And now it is significant that the recent findings from nuclear winter studies should be incorporated into contemporary deterrence thinking to minimize the chance of nuclear war.