Regression?
Few things made Joe happier than to see Bucky Irving bust out as a rookie to become the first dynamic Bucs rookie back in a long time.
And Joe for weeks (months) just assumed that any rookie would improve in his second season because that’s what NFL players did: get better after their rookie seasons.
But in doing research on rookie running backs, Joe found a disturbing recent trend. This decade, all but one rookie running back who totaled over 1,000 yards rushing had a regression his second season. In some cases, a significant setback.
There have been six running backs, including Bucky, who have run for 1,000 yards this decade in their rookie seasons. Of the six (excluding Bucky because, obviously, he hasn’t yet played his second season) only Jonathan Taylor finished with more yards in his second season.
In his rookie year in 2020, Taylor ran for 1,169 yards. In his second season, he topped that number with 1,811 yards.
Here are the [five running backs](https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/rookie-running-backs-to-rush-for-more-than-1000-yards-in-rookie-season) who ran for over 1,000 yards their rookie seasons this decade and what they did their second seasons (Bucky had 1,112 yards his rookie season):
**RB, season, rookie yards, second-year yards** Najee Harris 2021 1200 1034 Jonathan Taylor 2020 1169 1811 James Robinson 2020 1070 767 Kenneth Walker 2022 1050 905
Tyler Allgeier 2022 1035 683
Factors for Bucky that may break up this trend? Bucky only started one game in the Bucs’ first 15 games last season.
Also, Bucky will have the very same offensive line blocking for him. They are now used to how he cuts, weaves, times his runs, etc. Bucs offensive linemen took a few weeks to get a feel for how to block for Bucky. (Don’t believe Joe? Just ask the Bucs’ offensive linemen if you cross paths with them. They’ll tell you.)
The key thing here is, will new Bucs offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard use Bucky in the very same way that his predecessor Liam Coen did?
For Bucs history, Molly Hamster Doug Martin ran for 1,454 his rookie season in 2012 but only had 456 yards in his injury-riddled 2013 season. Martin missed the final 13 games of the year with a bum shoulder.