Production and deliveries of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, the Pentagon’s most advanced stealth fighter, are set to ramp up in 2025 and 2026. Over 100 aircraft are expected to reach international customers amid rising geopolitical tensions.
First Polish F-35 built, sent to Arkansas as a training platform
Photo credit: Lockheed Martin
Yet, recent weeks have seen murmurs of doubt from nations like Canada and Germany, where officials have hinted at reevaluating their commitments to the jet over concerns about a rumored “kill switch”—a hypothetical feature that could allow the United States to remotely disable the planes.
Lockheed Martin has firmly denied the existence of such a capability, and analysts argue that despite the rhetoric, walking away from the F-35 program remains improbable for these countries. The combination of contractual obligations, production realities, and a lack of viable alternatives suggests that such talk may be more political posturing than a genuine shift, potentially tied to the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. As deliveries loom, the question remains: could any other aircraft fill the void if these nations did pull out?
‘There is no kill switch’—The F-35 'kill switch' rumor has been debunked.
“After weeks of speculation, the Pentagon formally denies having the ability to remotely disable @LockheedMartin’s F-35 fighter jets.”
— F-35 Lightning II (@thef35) March 18, 2025
The F-35 program, a cornerstone of modern airpower, is on track to deliver between 170 and 190 aircraft globally in 2025, up from 110 the previous year, according to Lockheed Martin’s latest projections. Of these, roughly 40 to 60 are slated for international partners and customers outside the United States, with that number climbing to 50 to 70 in 2026 as new buyers like Germany and Canada join the roster.
This escalation follows years of production hurdles, including delays tied to the Technology Refresh 3 [TR-3] software upgrade, which enhances the jet’s sensors and weapons integration. Lockheed Martin resolved most of these issues by late 2024, clearing the way for a backlog of planes to ship out.
The United States itself expects to receive around 70 to 80 F-35s annually across its Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps, but the international focus has sharpened as allies bolster their defenses against threats from Russia, China, and beyond.
Wistikles | Canada is ramping up its military spending to strengthen defense and reduce reliance on the U.S. Plans include boosting Arctic security, reassessing F-35 jet purchases, and exploring European defense partnerships. #wistikles pic.twitter.com/qy5EE7N1lK
— Wistikles (@wistikles) March 22, 2025
Canada, for instance, finalized a $14 billion deal in early 2023 for 88 F-35As, with initial deliveries scheduled for 2026. Germany, meanwhile, committed to 35 F-35As in 2022 to replace its aging Tornado fleet, with the first jets due the same year.
Both nations are NATO members, deeply integrated into Western defense frameworks that rely on interoperability with American systems. Yet, in recent weeks, voices within these governments have raised eyebrows. Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair, speaking at a security conference in Ottawa, suggested a need to “reassess our procurement strategy” amid unspecified concerns about reliance on U.S. technology.
In Germany, a senior lawmaker from the Green Party, part of the ruling coalition, questioned whether the F-35’s capabilities come with “hidden risks,” fueling speculation about a kill switch—a feature that could theoretically allow Washington to neutralize the jets in a crisis.
Lockheed Martin swiftly rebutted these claims. “There is no such thing as a kill switch in the F-35,” a company spokesperson told Defense News in February 2025. “The aircraft’s systems are designed for sovereignty and security, with each nation maintaining full operational control.”
The Pentagon echoed this, with a Department of Defense official noting that the F-35’s software and hardware are subject to rigorous oversight by partner nations, many of whom contribute to its development through the Joint Strike Fighter program. Still, the rumors persist, amplified by online chatter and posts on platforms like X, where users have speculated about U.S. leverage over its allies.
Some tie the unease to President Trump’s return to office in January 2025, pointing to his administration’s “America First” stance and tough rhetoric on NATO burden-sharing as a potential catalyst for allied skepticism.
Despite the noise, experts see little chance of a mass exodus from the F-35 program. Richard Aboulafia, a managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, argues that the geopolitical stakes outweigh domestic political pressures. “These countries aren’t just buying a plane—they’re buying into a strategic alliance,” he said in an interview. “Russia’s actions in Ukraine and China’s moves in the Pacific mean NATO and its partners need the F-35’s capabilities now more than ever.”
Canada’s aging CF-18 Hornets, for example, are nearing the end of their service life, while Germany’s Tornados lack the stealth and networking features required for modern conflicts. Walking away would leave significant gaps in their defense postures, gaps that few alternatives could fill.
Production realities further complicate any potential retreat. Lockheed Martin’s Fort Worth, Texas, facility is already churning out fuselages and wings for the 2025 and 2026 batches, with international orders locked into multiyear contracts like Lots 15-17, which cover 375 jets through 2026.
Canceling these deals would incur hefty penalties—potentially billions of dollars—and disrupt supply chains involving hundreds of subcontractors across the globe. For Canada, backing out now would mean forfeiting deposits and delaying its fighter modernization by years.
Germany, having retooled its airbases for the F-35, would face similar logistical headaches. “The sunk costs are enormous,” noted Caitlin Lee, a RAND Corporation analyst specializing in airpower. “These nations are too far down the road to turn back without massive disruption.”
So, what are the alternatives? The F-35’s blend of stealth, sensor fusion, and multirole versatility sets it apart, but other fifth-generation fighters exist. Russia’s Sukhoi Su-57 Felon, introduced in 2020, boasts stealth features and supercruise capability, allowing it to exceed Mach 1 without afterburners.
However, its production has been sluggish—fewer than 20 are operational, per the International Institute for Strategic Studies—and its reliability remains unproven in combat. Western sanctions have also crippled Russia’s aerospace sector, making the Su-57 an unlikely choice for NATO members.
China’s Chengdu J-20 Mighty Dragon, another fifth-generation contender, offers stealth and advanced avionics, with over 200 built by 2024, according to Jane’s Defence Weekly. Yet, its export potential is limited by Beijing’s tight control over military tech, and its compatibility with Western systems is nonexistent.
For NATO countries, purchasing either the Su-57 or J-20 is not only improbable but effectively impossible due to alliance commitments and security protocols banning reliance on adversary technology.
Among Western options, the Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale stand out as fourth-generation-plus jets. The Typhoon, used by Germany and the UK, excels in air-to-air combat and can carry advanced munitions, but it lacks the F-35’s stealth profile and data-sharing capabilities.
France’s Rafale, a favorite of nations like India and Qatar, offers multirole flexibility and independence from U.S. oversight—Paris has pitched it as a “sovereign alternative” amid the kill switch debate. Still, its radar cross-section is larger than the F-35’s, and its sensors don’t match the American jet’s networked warfare edge.
Boeing’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, which Canada once considered, provides a proven platform with lower operating costs—around $18,000 per flight hour versus the F-35’s $35,000—but it’s not a stealth aircraft, leaving it vulnerable to advanced air defenses.
Operationally, the F-35’s advantages are hard to replicate. Its ability to penetrate contested airspace, share real-time data with allies, and strike targets with precision munitions like the Joint Strike Missile makes it a linchpin for modern coalitions. The Su-57 and J-20, while stealthy, lack the interoperability that NATO and its partners prioritize.
The Typhoon and Rafale, though capable, can’t match the F-35’s survivability against systems like Russia’s S-400 or China’s HQ-9. “There’s no direct substitute,” said Lee. “You’d need a mix of platforms—fighters, drones, electronic warfare assets—to approximate what the F-35 does alone, and that’s neither cheap nor simple.” For Canada, whose northern borders face Russian patrols, or Germany, eyeing threats from the east, this gap could prove decisive.
The kill switch controversy, while grabbing headlines, appears overstated. Defense analysts point to the F-35’s track record—over 1,000 aircraft delivered worldwide by early 2025, with no evidence of remote disabling—as proof of its reliability. Partner nations like the UK and Israel, which operate their own variants, have access to the jet’s source code and maintenance systems, ensuring autonomy.
Even so, the specter of U.S. dominance lingers, especially under Trump, whose administration has pushed allies to buy American while criticizing their defense spending. “It’s a bargaining chip,” Aboulafia suggested. “Countries float these doubts to negotiate better terms or signal displeasure with Washington, not because they’re ready to ditch the plane.”
Looking ahead, the F-35’s international footprint is poised to grow. Japan expects 8 to 12 jets in 2026, including F-35Bs for its carriers, while Finland kicks off its 64-plane order with 6 to 10 deliveries. Poland, South Korea, and Italy are also on deck, each tied to the same production pipeline that Canada and Germany would abandon at their peril.
Lockheed Martin’s goal of 156 annual deliveries by mid-decade hinges on this momentum, with the Fort Worth plant already scaling up. Any defections would ripple through the program, raising costs for remaining buyers—a dynamic that further binds nations to their commitments.
The debate over the F-35’s future, then, seems more theatrical than substantive. Political leaders may grumble, and kill-switch rumors may swirl, but the jet’s operational edge and the inertia of global defense networks keep it aloft.
For Canada, Germany, and others, the real question isn’t whether they can walk away—it’s whether they can afford to fly anything else. As the first 2025 deliveries roll off the line, that answer looks clearer by the day.
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