Manchester City are approaching the end of arguably their worst season in the last fifteen years - which is a testament to just how good they have been.
The drop off of other big clubs has been startling. Local rivals Manchester United are in 13th place and out of both domestic cup competitions. Tottenham are even worse off in 14th place and are the most inconsistent team in the league, though both Spurs and United remain in the Europa League.
Just a few seasons ago, Chelsea finished 12th. That same season, Liverpool finished outside the top four and Spurs outside the European places.
Arsenal, despite their upturn in form and expectations, have failed to turn that into a real trophy of any kind, with all of these teams, particularly United and Chelsea, spending similarly to City.
The last time the Blues finished a season lower than fourth in the league was the 2009/10 season, meaning they’ve qualified for the UEFA Champions League every season since.
The last time they played in the UEFA Europa League was in 2012, having finished third place in their Champions League group the year they won the Premier League for the first time.
And the last time they went an entire season trophyless was the 2016/17 season, Pep Guardiola’s first in charge.
Obviously, the Catalan would be the first to tell you that City aren’t going to finish the season empty-handed after they beat United on penalties to win the Community Shield in August, but no supporters will count that as a trophy.
Compared to the expectations City have set themselves, this season has been terrible, but in the grand scheme of things, every other club in the league would be at least satisfied with a realistic chance of both top four and winning the FA Cup.
Add to that having to contend with long-term injuries to Ballon D’Or winner Rodri and breakout star of pre-season Oscar Bobb, as well as frequent injuries to John Stones, Manuel Akanji, Ruben Dias and Nathan Ake and the drop off in form of a few older key players, then City have coped remarkably well with a few very good results mixed in with the mediocrity.
It can still be a salvageable season for City if they make the top four and win the FA Cup. It could go very much to plan, or go pear-shaped. Let’s see how it may turn out:
Worst case scenario
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The worst case scenario would include something that has plagued City all season - an injury to a key player on international duty.
Dias, Nico Gonzalez and Erling Haaland would be the worst players to lose, such is their influence on the defence, midfield and attack respectively when fit.
Dias in particular has struggled with fitness this season and it would be typical for him to be injured with Stones, Akanji and Ake all sidelined for the foreseeable future.
A turgid performance and loss against Bournemouth to knock them out of the FA Cup would further the misery, as it’d confirm a trophyless season.
But ultimately it’d be a poor run in the Premier League, reminiscent of the one from November to New Year of this season, that’d make it a truly bad end to the season for City.
Dropping points against struggling Southampton and Leicester City, as well as the Manchester derby for local pride reasons and the likes of Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Fulham who are challenging the Blues for Europe, would epitomise City’s campaign so far and would have to be part of the worst case scenario.
Finishing outside of the European places also isn’t out of the question, which would be a real disaster. And that’s not even taking into account what might happen with the ongoing legal dispute with the Premier League and the 115 charges they’re holding against the club.
Essentially, there’s plenty that could go wrong, and I’m not entirely confident anymore that this current crop of players can dig something out of the bag to finish the season strongly.
Best case scenario
Manchester City v Manchester United: Emirates FA Cup Final Photo by Justin Setterfield - The FA/The FA via Getty Images
But if any manager can get the best out of the players, it’s Pep Guardiola and if any group of players can make it click at the end of the season, it’s these players.
City are on the other side of a really tough run of fixtures, winning half of them. For a team struggling with injury and form, they’ve held their own reasonably well.
They’re obviously far from a team that can dominate like they have done in the last few years. But Rodri coming back from his anterior cruciate ligament injury will significantly improve things, and it’d be ideal to get him a few minutes under his belt before the start of the Club World Cup.
Getting him fit and ready to start for a potential FA Cup final would be the goal, but perhaps not likely or worth the risk.
I’m not a big fan of the Club World Cup, and I think it could cause more problems than it’ll solve, but there are a few undeniable bonuses that we could see.
It’d be a low stakes way for Rodri to build up match fitness again, but also it’ll be financially beneficial too if City progress far into the competition.
It’ll strengthen the warchest to be unleashed this summer to rebuild City’s squad, which balances the disadvantages regarding the lack of rest for the players.
But even if City win the FA Cup and win the Club World Cup, it’d be somewhat overshadowed by finishing outside of the Premier League’s top five, so that is a major priority for the end of the season.
The likes of Eduardo Camavinga, Florian Wirtz, Carlos Baleba and other big names linked to signing this summer will be far more likely to make a move if Champions League football is on offer, and it’ll continue City’s remarkable record of competing in the Champions League in every season since 2010/11.
A best case scenario would have to include securing Champions League football, and winning the FA Cup or even the Club World Cup would be the icing on the cake.
My opinion
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I think we’ll see something in between. I’d be very surprised if City win both the Club World Cup and FA Cup - they need to focus on getting past Bournemouth first in a devious looking fixture at the Vitality Stadium.
But if they get past the Cherries, and without the distraction of Champions League football, City will be in a good position to win their eighth FA Cup.
And as awful as they’ve been in stretches this season, they’ve always maintained within reach of the Champions League spots. Newcastle United, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest and the chasing pack are all inconsistent, so if City can get a bit of momentum behind them they’ll probably be in with a very good shout of qualifying for the Champions League.
To stick my neck on the line, I think City will finish in the top five, but lose in the FA Cup to Bournemouth (as much as I wish to be proven wrong!)
I then think they’ll make a good account of themselves in the Club World Cup, rejuvenate the squad this summer, and be back to something close to their best again next season.