Here’s my brief outline of what is happening, what might happen and my verdict on what will happen.
Before I do that, here is a useless statistic which explains the heavy congestion in the top three divisions: 20 of the 24 counties have something to play for, which is extraordinary really.
Only Derry, Westmeath, Laois and Leitrim have nothing tangible to aim for, save pride.
Division 1
All counties bar Derry have something at stake.
Five counties could reach the league final – Galway, Dublin, Donegal, Mayo and Kerry. Four counties could join Derry on the way down – Kerry, Tyrone, Armagh and Mayo. A county with seven points could be relegated today and we’ve seen nothing like that since Cork went down on six in 2016. Believe it or not, Kerry could reach the final or even get relegated.
It’s clear Donegal don’t want a final appearance. The same could probably be said of Galway, as they are heading to New York the weekend after the decider, and Mayo may be reluctant too, as they are out a week later in the championship against Sligo.
Who would benefit most from reaching the final? Dublin and Kerry. Both have the room to accommodate it and both could use a tough match before the provincial campaigns. Mayo and Dublin, then, for the final and Tyrone to be relegated with Derry.
Division 2
The highest scoring and most entertaining of all the divisions. Here’s a gas stat: Westmeath are the third highest scoring team; better still, they’ve scored more than the top scoring counties in Divisions 1, 3 and 4. Yet they are pointless and relegated!
Four counties are in contention for promotion – Monaghan, Roscommon, Meath and Cavan. Three have a chance of relegation along with Westmeath – Down, Louth and Cork.
My verdict is a Division 2 final and promotion for Monaghan and Roscommon. And Down to join Westmeath.
Division 3
Highly competitive to the end. Six of the eight counties have something to play for today. Only Laois and Leitrim have nothing at stake. Four counties could get promoted – Offaly, Kildare, Clare and Fermanagh. It will be between Sligo and Antrim as to who gets relegated along with Leitrim.
My verdict is that Kildare and Offaly will go up, while Antrim will join Leitrim on the way down.
Division 4
This is more straight-forward. Wexford are already promoted. And with no relegation, five counties have nothing to play for today – Waterford, London, Longford, Tipperary and Carlow.
If Limerick win, they will be promoted; they play Waterford at home and that is what I expect will happen.
The other contender is Wicklow, who play Tipperary; they need to win and Limerick to lose if they are to join Wexford in Division 3 next season.