Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Reddit Email Print
File photo: A crowd gathers outside a local money exchange shop amid mounting currency instability and the collapse of the Iranian rial
Two-minute read
The clerical regime in Iran is facing an unprecedented economic meltdown, triggering rare public admissions of failure and anxiety across regime officials and state-controlled media. With inflation soaring, the national currency in freefall, and a staggering budget deficit, insiders are openly acknowledging the depth of the crisis—and warning of its potentially explosive consequences.
On March 21, Kamal Seyed Ali, a former deputy head of the Central Bank, revealed that the regime is now running a budget deficit of over 50%, warning that even under the best conditions, including continued oil sales to China, “the inflation rate cannot be brought below 40%—and in the worst-case scenario, it could reach 60%.”
In a further sign of systemic failure, state-run outlet Bahar News reported on March 21 a 442 trillion toman increase in government debt to the banking system in just six months. Liquidity has ballooned to nearly 10 quadrillion tomans, with the monetary base exceeding 1.27 quadrillion tomans by the end of February—figures that signal deep monetary instability.
#IranProtests: Nationwide Demonstrations, Clashes, and Economic Hardship Intensify on March 9, 2025https://t.co/X6Dxj41Kan
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 9, 2025
But perhaps the most alarming indicator is the collapse of the national currency. On March 19, the U.S. dollar surpassed the symbolic barrier of 100,000 tomans in the open market, pushing the rial to its lowest value in history. Former ICT Minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi declared bluntly, “The rial is dying. There isn’t even an economic minister left for Parliament to impeach as a scapegoat.”
Former chief of the regime’s Chamber of Commerce Hossein Selahvarzi went further, predicting that the currency collapse could trigger “a rare structural crisis” in Iran’s economy and society. “It’s not just a currency shock—prices will skyrocket, purchasing power will collapse, and widespread poverty will ensue. The social and political instability could lead to open rebellion,” he warned.
These grim forecasts are compounded by worsening infrastructure failures. On March 21, Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with the IRGC Quds Force, reported a humiliating 28-minute blackout during an international football match at Tehran’s Azadi Stadium. The event, broadcast globally, was described as an “international disgrace,” despite recent renovations at the venue. Bahar News also noted that basic construction flaws persisted, with rainwater leaking from the roof and outdated electrical systems contributing to the failure.
#Iran’s Economic Collapse and Social Unrest Looming in 2025https://t.co/zN1eMj0Spm
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 18, 2025
At the macro level, Bahar News reported that Iran’s electricity deficit for 2025 has already reached 24,000 megawatts, with gas shortages estimated at 250 to 300 million cubic meters per day during peak winter consumption—further evidence of systemic breakdown.
Meanwhile, skyrocketing food prices are making basic nutrition unaffordable for millions. According to regime statistics, the cost of staple goods has risen dramatically over the past year: potatoes by 217%, eggplants by 122%, tomatoes by 116%, yellow split peas by 108%, and pinto beans by 104%. Bahar News observed that “people can no longer afford even legumes.”
The mounting crisis has also exposed internal fractures within the regime. While the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei used his Nowruz speech to claim that the current government must take charge of economic recovery, his assertion that “the Leader does not interfere in economic planning and has no right to do so” was widely interpreted as an attempt to deflect blame and set up Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration to absorb the fallout from looming economic catastrophes.
As Iran’s currency collapses, inflation spirals and critical infrastructure falters, the regime appears gripped by a quiet but escalating panic. The public airing of such deep anxieties by former ministers, economists, and regime-affiliated outlets marks a striking shift—and a warning sign that the economic crisis may soon spark a broader political reckoning.