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Deterring the Houthis could take time, here's why - analysis

The Iran-backed Houthis launched a ballistic missile at Israel just after seven in the morning on March 23. The goal was to target Israel during the morning hour when many children are going to school, and people are leaving for work. This was clearly designed to terrorize the population.

The Houthis usually only launched one missile during these attacks. They likely know that one missile will set off sirens across a swath of Israel, sending millions to shelters.

This means they can achieve as much with one missile as with ten. The Houthis have been bragging that they have used a “hypersonic” missile in a recent attack that they claimed targeted Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport.

The Houthi statements were included in Iranian state media, indicating Iran views these attacks as important. At the same time, the Iranians sought to distance themselves from the Houthi attacks.

The Houthis have that they “will continue their operations as long as the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip continues,” IRNA reported.

Footage released by Houthi Military Media says to show a launch of missile, which the Houthis say they fired at Israel, at an unknown location in this screen grab obtained from a handout video released on December 19, 2024. (credit: HOUTHI MILITARY MEDIA/via REUTERS)

Footage released by Houthi Military Media says to show a launch of missile, which the Houthis say they fired at Israel, at an unknown location in this screen grab obtained from a handout video released on December 19, 2024. (credit: HOUTHI MILITARY MEDIA/via REUTERS)

The Houthis also said they had targeted the USS Harry Truman aircraft carriers and other ships. “The operations were conducted in retaliation for tens of US attacks against Yemeni targets,” Houthi spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Saree said.

The Houthis are not deterred despite a week of US airstrikes. The US says that they will also hold Iran responsible for Houthi attacks. The strikes began strong, but airpower is not a magic wand to win wars.

The persistence of the Houthis

The Houthis also faced Israeli aerial attacks and attacks by the Saudis and others in the past. They have weathered the storm. The US has one aircraft carrier off the coast of Yemen.

Reports say a second carrier may arrive in the next weeks. The USS Truman was at the end of its deployment, which has been extended. It is not clear if the Truman and its several dozen aircraft can fully deter the Houthis.

It is also not clear if the US is flying missions from the UAE or Qatar, where it has bases, because those countries may not want to face Houthi retaliation.

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This calls into question where this campaign will go and whether the Houthis, with Iranian advice, think they can simply hide underground and wait. They have shown they are willing to launch missiles in the day and at night targeting Israel.

It is hard to track down ballistic missile launchers. During the Gulf War in 1991, the US also sought to neutralize Saddam Hussein’s Scuds, and it was a difficult process.

While technology has changed, the Houthis also have means of hiding the missiles.

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