analysis
We're at a turning point in world history but our leaders are distracted
By Alan Kohler
Topic:World Politics
16m ago16 minutes agoSun 23 Mar 2025 at 6:56pm
Albanese and Dutton in a compositie image close up.
The world is in freefall while Australia heads into another small, dreary cost-of-living election. (AAP: Richard Wainwright/Jono Searle)
Australia is heading towards minority government at a turning point in world history.
This is a time when clear political vision and decisive leadership is called for, when the stakes for tomorrow's federal budget and the coming election couldn't be higher. Not that you would know it from the grubby squabbles that pass for national debate these days.
America's democracy is under attack from an autocratic cabal of political extremists and billionaires; Europe and China are frantically trying to Trump-proof themselves; Russia and Israel are carrying out brutal assaults and refuse to stop; the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere last year was the largest in history, and the global temperature was the hottest; and an automation and robotics revolution is in the midst of a great leap forward towards … what? No one knows.
A sun setting behind a hilltop
The reality of global warming is one issue Australia's leaders should be talking about. (Reuters: Pilar Olivares)
Challenges facing Australia could not be greater
Lenin's quote that "there are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen" is getting a solid work-out these days, but last week there was a single day on which decades happened. It was Tuesday, March 18.
Here's what happened on that day:
Germany's parliament, the Bundestag, voted to end 80 years of fiscal shackles and constraints on military spending, to Trump-proof its and Europe's economy, changing the course of European history.
China launched its own fiscal stimulus programme for the same reason, potentially changing the course of its own history, although it has much less fiscal room to move than Germany.
In a phone call with US President Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin refused a 30-day ceasefire, and started bombarding Ukraine again.
Israel resumed its bombardment of Gaza, warning that the "gates of hell" would open if hostages weren't released.
The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold but pivoted towards easing policy, saying the impact of tariffs was likely to be "transitory", prompting markets to rise sharply.
Trump described the judge who blocked the deportation of more than 200 men under the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, a "radical left lunatic" and said he should be impeached, escalating his administration's war with the American judiciary.
Trump fired two commissioners of the Federal Trade Commission, even though courts have established that it's illegal for the president to remove officials of agencies created by Congress.
AI computer-chip maker Nvidia unveiled the next generation of its artificial intelligence products, in an attempt to combat the Chinese firm DeepSeek, which is producing AI models at a fraction of the cost of Nvidia.
China's advanced humanoid robot, Unitree G1, performed the world's first robot side flip.
Microsoft and a Swiss company called inait announced they were collaborating to commercialise inait's digital brain technology.
The last of these could end up being the most significant, although there's stiff competition, especially from the assault on American democracy.
The Trump regime is now openly, vehemently defying the two other arms of US government — the judiciary and Congress — and there is no longer any doubt about what they are doing: that is, an autocratic takeover of the country. They're not even trying to hide it any more.
The challenge this will present for whoever is running the Australian government over the next three years could not be greater: even if the ANZUS treaty holds in theory, can the US be relied upon anymore? And what will be the economic impact of three years of trade war?
That cyclone is combining with global warming and automation to form an immense Fujiwara effect (the name for what happens when cyclones merge).
I dealt with climate change last week; the rest of today's column will focus on robotics and AI.
AI could threaten future of employment
inait, and its forerunner not-for-profit, The Open Brain Institute, have spent 20 years building a digital brain with 1 billion euros from the EU. They've now done it, incredibly, and Microsoft has been invited to help commercialise it.
Announcing the deal last Tuesday, Microsoft called it a new artificial intelligence paradigm, but that doesn't come close to describing its significance.
In a presentation to the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, the founder of inait, Professor Henry Markram said: "A digital brain is a computer model of the brain. It is a replica of the brain. It copies the shape, the dimensions and the behaviour of the synapses, the neurons, the brain circuits, the brain regions, the whole brain."
In short, this form of AI will be able to behave like a human being — that is, learn on the job and respond in real time to what's happening around it. Put it inside a humanoid robot and it's a person.
The deal with Microsoft is designed to sell it to companies so they can replace those who, inconveniently, have to eat, breathe, sleep and love.
Even before this digital brain takes AI to a new level, automation and robotics are producing a revolution that will mean all manufacturing and almost all professions can be fully automated.
Production of all goods and most services will be 24/7, all day, every day, with higher productivity than any human can achieve, allowing massive increases in output and reductions in cost.
Two extremes may eventuate. Society could collapse, as those who own these means of production make off with the loot and cause inequality to skyrocket, or it will flourish because firm, benevolent political leadership makes sure that doesn't happen, and the benefits and difficulties are equally shared.
It seems pretty clear that the billionaires now running America are leaning towards the first of those outcomes.
Can the rest of the world make sure they don't succeed?
Happily, or unhappily — I can't decide which — Trump and his gang seem determined to destroy the US economy with tariffs, austerity and administrative chaos, and in any case, it looks like the future of technology is being taken out of American hands by China.
China is so far ahead in high-tech manufacturing that it looks impossible for the US to catch up.
China has long led the world in high-volume manufacturing and recently its engineering quality has grown to be competitive in several industries: batteries, renewables, drones and electric vehicles.
Chinese firm DJI accounts for over 80 per cent of the global commercial drone market and 90 per cent of the American consumer market. China is the leading producer of renewable energy equipment and electric cars — all cars in fact — and they are very good, and very cheap.
Now, it's taking the lead in robotics: more than 250,000 robots per year are being installed in China, compared with tens of thousands in the US and Europe, and Chinese firms are supplying about 50 per cent of the local market.
The most viable humanoid robot on the global market, China's Unitree G1, is now entirely decoupled from American components.
a human-like robot stands in front of a man who is holding a remote.
The Unitree G1 humanoid biped robot on display at Japan Robot Week in 2024. (REUTERS/Issei Kato)
Given the huge advantage it is now developing in robotics and high-tech manufacturing, China is the only country in a position to make and sell the equipment world-wide, with Taiwan making the computer chips for the brains.
Meanwhile in Australia, we are heading into another small, dreary cost-of-living election, arguing about power bill relief and non-existent nuclear power stations, when we should really be talking about the great American retreat, the reality of global warming, and the potential for wholesale replacement of human employment.
Alan Kohler is finance presenter and columnist on ABC News and he also writes for Intelligent Investor.
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Posted16m ago16 minutes agoSun 23 Mar 2025 at 6:56pm
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