With roughly three weeks left in the regular season, the Oklahoma City Thunder owns the best record in the NBA and has clinched the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. It’s been a phenomenal season for the young team, but also for several individuals on the roster. Most notably, the face of the franchise, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, appears to be on his way to his first-ever NBA Most Valuable Player Award.
His odds currently sit at -900, an implied probability of roughly 90%. Since ESPN’s MVP straw poll last month — when Gilgeous-Alexander already had started to build a clear lead — the Thunder superstar has only elevated his play and has increased his case to win the award.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -900
Nikola Jokic: +475
Giannis Antetokounmpo: +10000
Jayson Tatum: +25000
At this point, Nikola Jokic is the only actual competition for Gilgeous-Alexander. Given only a few weeks remain in the regular season, it would take a generational close to the season for Jokic to become the outright favorite for the award. His basic counting stats are better than Gilgeous-Alexander’s overall, but Denver has won 14 fewer games than Oklahoma City to this point. That matters, as value often brings victories.
The MVP is an individual award, but Gilgeous-Alexander’s impact on winning is undeniably the best in the NBA. The Thunder is on pace for 68 wins, with him leading the league in scoring while also being one of the most impactful defenders in the NBA. Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t just a neutral defender. He’s a top-ten Defensive Player of the Year candidate for the second-straight season.
Availability is also a key component for any player that is most valuable in any regular season campaign. Gilgeous-Alexander has played in 67 of 70 games for the Thunder this season. He’s posted averages of 32.9 points, 6.3 assists and 5.1 rebounds per contest while shooting 58.4% from 2-point range, 37.4% from beyond the arc and 90.1% from the free throw line. Gilgeous-Alexander is second in the NBA in total steals (118), fourth in total blocks among guards (69) and 16th in total deflections (181) while being the NBA’s top scorer. The two-way impact is undeniable.
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This isn’t to discount Jokic's impact, because he's had an unbelievable season to this point. He's the best player in the world and has won MVP in three of the last four seasons to prove it. But as it relates to the player who has been the best and most valuable in the 2024-25 campaign, Gilgeous-Alexander is the guy.
The NBA’s Most Valuable Player Award will be voted on at the conclusion of the regular season but won't be announced until May. When that day comes, the expectation is that Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder will be amidst a playoff run to the NBA Finals. In the meantime, he'll continue to put together wins and dominant individual performances over the final few weeks of the regular season to officially lock down the award.
At this point, MVP is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's to lose and only Nikola Jokic has the ability to overtake him for the honor.