Since 2011, Libya has been in turmoil, facing a divided state, stalled elections, militia control and unsuccessful UN stabilization efforts.
Feb. 17, 2025: Thousands gathered at Martyrs’ Square in Tripoli to commemorate the 14th anniversary of the February 17 Revolution.
Feb. 17, 2025: Thousands gathered at Martyrs’ Square in Tripoli to commemorate the 14th anniversary of the February 17 Revolution. © Getty Images
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In a nutshell
Libya remains fragmented between rival factions
Armed groups consolidate power, fueling oil smuggling
Local elections show potential, but national governance remains flawed
Since Muammar Qaddafi’s ousting and death in 2011, oil-rich Libya has been plunged into more than a decade of turmoil, marked by political instability and rival factions. This chaos has divided Libya between the east and west, creating a “de facto” partition.
On one side is the Government of National Unity, led by Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibeh and based in Tripoli, with the advisory support of the High Council of State. On the other side is the Government of National Stability, based in Tobruk, led by Osama Hamad and supported by the House of Representatives and the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) under the command of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.
This division dates back to the country’s last election of 2014, which sparked the start of the second Libyan civil war. Although national elections were scheduled for December 2021, they were indefinitely suspended due to instability.
Since 2011, the United Nations has monitored Libya’s challenging political stabilization process through its Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). The mission has appointed 10 representatives and envoys to date, with the latest being Hanna Serwaa Tetteh of Ghana, previously the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for the Horn of Africa. Over the years, UNSMIL has attempted to unite the warring parties through various approaches, but these efforts have not succeeded.
Nov. 16, 2024: Libyans voting at a polling station in Tripoli for municipal council elections, which took place in 58 localities.
Nov. 16, 2024: Libyans voting at a polling station in Tripoli for municipal council elections, which took place in 58 localities. © Getty Images
The final proposal from Stephanie Koury, former UN special representative in Libya, was to initiate a new political process by convening a committee of experts to address all unresolved issues, such as the electoral law, to pave the way for the long-awaited elections. A national reconciliation dialogue would allow the country to find a broader consensus. Instead, Libyan politics have been captured by a few actors backed by foreign states, spoiling the natural process of political selection.
Despite the political quagmire at the national level, locally, Libyan citizens have many ways to make their voices heard. Various rounds of municipal elections have been successfully held over the years. For instance, on November 16, 2024, the first phase of the municipal council elections took place in 58 municipalities, with a significant turnout of 74 percent of eligible voters. However, the second round, originally scheduled for February 8, has been delayed to an unspecified date. Some Libyans suggest it could be May 2025, but this remains unofficial.
Despite these local bright spots, the national crisis persists, exacerbated by issues that have drawn international attention and action.
Sanctions and Libya’s ongoing political crisis
On January 16, 2025, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2769 to extend the mandate of the Panel of Experts on Libya until May 15, 2026, and to authorize actions against the illegal export of Libyan petroleum until May 1, 2026. The package also includes updates to the arms embargo and asset freeze measures already in place from Resolution 1970, adopted on February 26, 2011. The latest report from the UN’s Panel of Experts, released in December 2024, highlighted the alarming situation in Libya more than a decade after the revolution against Qaddafi.
Sep. 5, 2024: Khalifa Haftar, Libya's military leader, speaks at a conference on the country's development and reconstruction.
Sep. 5, 2024: Khalifa Haftar, Libya’s military leader, speaks at a conference on the country’s development and reconstruction. © Getty Images
The report describes how armed groups in Libya have further solidified their hold on politics, consistently weakening already fragile public institutions. One key factor is the systematic smuggling of oil, facilitated by the General Electric Company of Libya’s unethical use of the facilities in the old harbor in Benghazi to divert a considerable amount of diesel.
In fact, since March 2022, experts have estimated – and these are conservative figures – that the volume of smuggled diesel was 1.13 million tons. According to the Panel of Experts’ report, the president of GECOL, Mohamed Omar Hassan al-Mashay, “was instrumental in preventing governmental entities from exercising any form of oversight, including by intimidating responsible national authorities and consistently refusing to cooperate with them.”
The real decision-makers were likely the leaders of western Libya’s most powerful and influential militias. This included figures like Abdel Ghani al-Kikli, who heads the Stability Support Apparatus, and Colonel Abdulsalam al-Zobi, the commander of the 111th Brigade.
Read more from military and counterinsurgency expert Federica Saini Fasanotti
The situation in the east is equally concerning. The LNA, commanded directly by one of Mr. Haftar’s sons, Saddam Haftar, has complete control over all activities in the territorial waters of Cyrenaica. This includes both legal and illegal operations ranging from security to trade. In the south, the LNA exercises unrestricted authority over the borders with Niger and Chad, overseeing all illicit cross-border activities involving arms, drugs, precious minerals and human trafficking.
Furthermore, according to the UN, the Haftars have permitted two Sudanese armies (the Rapid Support Forces and Sudanese Armed Forces), which have been at war with each other for nearly two years, to use southern Libya as a safe haven. In addition to the Sudanese groups, the region also hosts al-Qaeda and Islamic State cells, as well as foreign armed groups and private military companies, particularly from Russia and Turkey.
International response to Libya’s militia-controlled instability
Libyan institutions are held hostage by militias that use them as their fiefdoms. These include not only GECOL but also the National Oil Corporation, the Libyan Central Bank and the Libyan Investment Authority, which is Libya’s sovereign wealth fund established in 2006 to manage the country’s financial reserves from oil revenues. However, 10 member states and 16 financial institutions have consistently failed to adhere to the asset freeze intended to safeguard the Libyan people’s resources, resulting in the erosion or weakening of these assets in certain instances.
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Facts & figures
Libya’s tumultuous journey since 2011
2011: Protests erupted in Benghazi in February, spreading nationwide. Muammar Qaddafi was captured and killed in October; the National Transitional Council declared Libya liberated and planned for elections.
2012: The U.S. Ambassador was killed in an extremist attack in September 2012.
2013: The Petroleum Facilities Guard militia started oil export blockades.
2014-2015: Khalifa Haftar launched anti-extremist operations in Benghazi. Tripoli airport was destroyed, and embassies were closed. In January 2015, warring factions declared a partial ceasefire after UN-sponsored talks. Mr. Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) failed to retake Derna as the Islamic State gained ground.
2016-2017: The UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) was formed in March. Mr. Haftar’s troops seized oil terminals in September. Fighting by the Islamic State persisted in Sirte. In 2017, tensions increased regarding the control of oil fields as both the GNA and LNA attempted to assert dominance over lucrative oil resources.
2018-2020: In September 2018, the GNA declared an emergency in Tripoli. Mr. Haftar’s troops attacked the capital city in April 2019; the GNA sought global support.
2021-2023: Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibeh became prime minister in March 2021. A year later, the eastern-based House of Representatives appointed Fathi Bashagha as interim prime minister. In May 2023, the parliament suspended Mr. Bashagha and assigned Finance Minister Osama Hamada to the role.
2024: Oil production was halted due to Central Bank disputes. Local elections took place in 58 municipalities, the first simultaneous voting in the east and west since 2014.
According to the UN Security Council Report, negative interest rates and unreasonable management fees have been charged. Essentially, the report denounced “non-compliance with international standards, discrepancies in agreed-upon procedures, conflict of interest, depletion of frozen assets, limited visibility of the Libyan Investment Authority and limited control over its frozen assets.”
Moreover, the militiamen operating the notorious prisons in the Tripoli area pose a significant concern. This is illustrated in the case of Osama Najim Almasri, the head of the Mitiga Detention Center in Libya, who has been accused of torturing refugees held in the prisons. Italy’s decision to deport rather than hold him, despite an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court in The Hague, has created real challenges for the Italian government. The situation underscores a significant and systemic issue: In detention camps for migrants and others, militias often enforce summary justice, leading to reports of torture, sexual violence and various human rights violations.
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Scenarios
Highly unlikely in the short to medium term: Elections are held
For this scenario to become a reality, an international security force would be essential, with a mandate to keep the militias at bay and enable those who need to work on the electoral process to do so without fearing for their own safety or their loved ones. Considering the evident deterioration of the situation from multiple perspectives, it seems unlikely that Libya can manage this alone. The Libyans and their closest partners, including Italy and France, would undoubtedly be the main beneficiaries if this scenario were to occur. Many large companies have refrained from investing in Libya in previous years precisely because of this endemic instability. Additionally, migrant flows departing from the Libyan shores would be controlled and managed, benefiting both Africa and Europe.
Very likely: Libya slides further into social disorder
Over the past 14 years, UNSMIL has failed to implement solutions genuinely accepted by the Libyan people. The intention was to “empower” citizens; however, this approach overlooked that UN personnel often had to engage with inadequate leadership.
It would have been unfeasible for national elections to take place in 2021, without any established electoral law or political parties. Stability will remain out of reach as long as these issues are not addressed. Change appears possible, up to a certain point – when those in power realize they could lose their position to a genuine democratic process, prompting them to go to great lengths not to be ousted. The consequences of this instability are evident and are further intensified by the ongoing discontent among the Libyan population and rising concerns about migration within European public opinion.
Moreover, the presence of foreign powers hostile to European policies, particularly Russia, will also hinder stabilization. The new American administration is unlikely to seek more engagement with Libya. Vice President J.D. Vance clearly stated the administration’s position at the Munich Security Conference in February 2025, leaving European leaders stunned by stating that it is no longer in the United States’ interest to protect Europe.
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