The Defence [White Paper](https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/document/download/30b50d2c-49aa-4250-9ca6-27a0347cf009_en?filename=White%20Paper.pdf), published in Brussels on 19 March by the European Commission and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, entitled “Joint White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030”, was a welcome, major contribution, to the debate on European Defence and Security. Unlike similar epistles coming out of Brussels, which one often wonders are written for whom, and by whom, the Defence White Paper is informative, candid and contains well-argued steps going forward. It gives the reader a good sense of the urgency of the situation and sets out clearly a set of steps aimed at addressing the urgency in a timely manner.
The Defence White Paper proposes to take the EU to a different level on the world stage, a geo-political player not just by ambition, but also by its ability to project its strength and use it if necessary. The White Paper outlines 3 key areas of action: Closing capability gaps and supporting the European defence industry, including simplifying regulations and streamlining industrial programmes. Deepening the single defence market and accelerating the transformation of defence through disruptive innovations such as AI and quantum technology. Enhancing European readiness for worst-case scenarios, by improving military mobility, stockpiling, and fostering operational cooperation across the EU.
Three ingredients are necessary for a geo-political player to be taken seriously militarily as a global player: it must have enough population to make it a credible player. The EU’s population is around five hundred million. It must have the financial capacity and clout to play this role. The European Union's GDP is estimated to be $20.29 trillion (nominal) in 2025 or $29.01 trillion (PPP), representing around one-sixth of the global economy. It must have a solid scientific and technological base to address new challenges brought about by rapidly changing ways in which conflicts are pursued. In 2023, the EU spent €381.4 billion on research & development (R&D), which is 6.7% more than in the previous year (€357.4 billion) and 57.9% more than in 2013 (€241.5 billion). Mario Draghi’s report, “The Future of European Competitiveness,” calls for the EU to boost research and innovation spending to EUR 750-800 billion annually to compete with the US and China.
So, all in all, the EU has what it takes to be a geo-strategic global player, but it must do more, which is what the Defence White Paper argues for.
Apart from tangible needs, a global player must have the political will. Here the EU is work in progress. The White Paper sails close to the debate around the power of the 27 member states, but generally avoids it. Commission President, Ursula van der Leyen has by and large secured the support of the member states (Hungary apart, but no one is bothering too much about that). Most leaders have signed up to the ideas contained in the White Paper. But some have done so without consulting their governments back home. Dutch Prime Minister, Dick Schoof, for example, is betting on his coalition partners not wanting to rock the boat by firing him, and pushing ahead with support for Von der Leyen’s agenda. Building a consensus and a political will to act will remain a feature of the EU modus operandi. Europeans have got used to it, and eventually so will the rest of the world.
Cleverly, the Defence White Paper discusses the economic benefit of a massive increase in military spending. Defence spending employs thousands of people and generates large consumer demands. If cleverly deployed they can create crucial pockets of support that would soon outweigh the flimsy demands of bloated populists,
Having read the White Paper, one cannot but wonder if the Brussels bureaucracy can handle it. I think not. This is going to require a major change in the work culture. Von der Leyen must be prepared for this, including by establishing a parallel Brussels bureaucracy. Brussels must not be allowed to kill its own baby.
There is one element which is missing from the Defence White Paper, which will have to be dealt with sooner or later, and that is nuclear deterrence. The two powers that the White Paper highlights as rivals: Russia and China, are both nuclear powers. Now is not the time to discuss European nuclear deterrence. That is premature as is the talk of a European army. But it is time to talk with France, and the UK, about the use and development of their nuclear capability to give Europe the cover it requires. This will require Europe to pay either or both countries large amounts of money. A dialogue with the US is always going to be necessary.
The White Paper lists the countries that the EU sees as potential partners in its new defence endeavours. The UK heads the list, after NATO. “The United Kingdom is an essential European ally with which cooperation on security and defence should be enhanced in mutual interest, starting with a potential Security and Defence partnership. Building on the set of solid agreements in place, bilateral security and defence cooperation can expand, ranging from external crisis management to defence industrial policies”, the White Paper says.
Eventually, a defence agreement EU-UK will be necessary, but the EU must get its house in order first. In the end, almost as an afterthought, the White Paper says: “The EU is and remains a peace project. It must be able to protect its citizens, defend its interests and the values it stands for”.
Many in the EU would prefer to have seen this first. A debate must start within Europe about the future of the EU as a peace project. It is equally important as the discussion on defence.
The EU White Paper of Defence was, however, a timely and significant event, and the Europeans must engage in the discussion that it opens.
##### Source: Dr Dennis Sammut is the Director of LINKS Europe and Managing Editor of _commonspace.eu_.
##### Photo: The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas presents the White Paper for European Defence – Readiness 2030 - 19 March 2025 (European Commission)
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