Today, we’ll look at some of the defensive trends under first-year defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, including blitz rates and coverage usage among other trends.
The Packers' defense finished the season as the 4th most efficient defense in EPA/play (-.066) and 7th in defensive DVOA. Not too shabby for Hafley and his wholesale change from a 3-4 under Joe Barry to a 4-3 in less than a year.
Installing a predominantly 4-3 cover-3 style defense of the Seattle scheme/”legion of boom” mold under Pete Carroll of the mid-2010s, Hafley revamped and re-styled the scheme along the way at various stops, first picking up the scheme with Robert Saleh in 2017 with the 49ers. Since then, Hafley committed to it full-time after bouncing between a 4-3 scheme in Tampa Bay in 2012 and a 3-4 scheme in Cleveland in 2014-2015.
The primary source of data for this article will come from Cody Alexander at Match Quarters utilizing the Field Vision charting for coverage rates, blitz rates, simulated pressures, etc. Other sources of data include RBSDM (EPA metrics), Sports Info Solutions, and Pro Football Reference.
Coverage usage
Coming from Boston College, Hafley was primarily a single high scheme defense (cover-1 and cover-3) where they played cover-1 man 43.0% and cover-3 27.5% of the time.
In 2024 in Green Bay, Hafley called cover-1 17.7% of the time and cover-3 37.2%. The defense finished 10th in cover-3 EPA/play and 11th in cover-1 EPA/play.
At Boston College in 2023, Hafley only called cover-2 3.6% of the time. In the NFL, he ran cover-2 at the 5th highest rate in 2024 at 21.1%. We’ll cover more of this coverage later as it coincides with some of the staple disguises of the scheme on high leverage third downs. They finished 7th in cover-2 EPA/play.
Altogether, the Packers defense played zone 78.2% of the time (9th highest in the NFL) and man coverage 21.8% of the time (24th in the NFL). In the NFL, if you don’t have a stable pass rush that can win a majority of the time then there is no point in calling man coverage at a high rate and the defense did not have a consistent pass rush they could rely on.
Blitz/pressure rate
In 2024, the Packers had the 8th lowest pass blitz rate in the NFL at 27.4%. Instead they, Hafley elected to blitz sparingly and primarily only did so on passing downs. On third and long (3rd and 6+), the Packers defense blitzed 45.2% of the time, 2nd highest in the NFL. On third and medium (3rd and 3 - 3rd and 5), the Packers blitzed 54.4% of the time, 3nd in the NFL.
Here’s an example of a well-timed blitz from week three versus Tennessee. The defensive play call is a cross-dog blitz with cover-1 behind it. It’s a unique personnel grouping rarely seen outside of schemes like DeMeco Ryans and Robert Saleh. There are three defensive ends aligned to the center’s right, with linebacker Quay Walker positioned in the B-gap on the offense’s left and Preston Smith as the edge rusher on the right.
This setup creates an overload pressure, leveraging Walker and Cooper as additional blitzers. Walker attacks the B-gap to the right, while Cooper loops from the A-gap to the left B-gap, disguising his path to confuse the offensive line. The line’s slant to the right forces the center to track Cooper’s movement, leaving him out of position to block Enagbare, who exploits the open inside lane.
Cooper’s blitz draws the center’s attention, creating a lane for Enagbare to pressure the quarterback. Though Enagbare initiates contact, Smith secures the sack, overwhelming the quarterback.
The play’s success hinged on coordinated chaos: misdirection, aggressive line movement, and precise timing. This approach highlighted Hafley’s adaptability to his pro personnel, blending creativity with execution to dismantle protections and disrupt the quarterback decisively.
Here’s a cut-up of 3rd-and-long blitz calls from the 2024 defense. In 5-man pressures, the Packers ranked 27th in the NFL, utilizing 5-man pressures 51.2% of the time. In 6-man pressures, they ranked 19th at 11.6% of their blitzes.
Simulated pressures
Related to the metrics above, the Packers ranked 5th in simulated pressures at 36% of their pass blitz rate. On a simulated pressure, the line of scrimmage is clogged with defenders up on the line with or sometimes seven defenders and the rest of the coverage aligned in cover-0.
The rushers can come from anywhere at this point and the pre-snap pressure alignment is used to manipulate the offensive line’s slide in one direction that usually frees up the pass rushers away from it with a stunt or twist while rushing just four and dropping the rest into zone coverages.
On a critical third down in the third quarter in the week four game against Minnesota, Hafley deployed a Tampa-2 simulated pressure against the Vikings offense. This scheme disguised the defense’s intentions by aligning linebackers Quay Walker and Isaiah McDuffie in a mugged A-gap front, suggesting an aggressive blitz.
However, only Walker rushed as the fourth pass rusher, while McDuffie dropped into middle zone coverage and Preston Smith retreated to cover the hook/curl zone. The design aimed to confuse the Vikings’ protection by showing pressure but maintaining zone coverage behind it.
The Vikings’ offensive line half-slid their protection to the right, anticipating threats from that side, but the Packers exploited this adjustment. Three rushers attacked the offense’s left, with Devonte Wyatt looping inside as Walker surged through the A-gap. This created a 3-on-2 mismatch, overwhelming the Vikings’ protection.
Walker’s unblocked path to the quarterback culminated in a sack, highlighting how Hafley’s deceptive pressure scheme outmaneuvered Minnesota’s blocking strategy through misdirection and effective execution.
In the fourth quarter of the same game, Hafley revisited the same Tampa-2 simulated pressure scheme he had used earlier. The defense executed the identical coverage call, with Isaiah McDuffie dropping into the deep middle zone, Quay Walker rushing as the fourth pass rusher, and McKinney retreating to cover the deep half on the backside of the Vikings’ 3x1 formation.
The concept aimed to once again confuse the Vikings’ protection and disrupt quarterback Sam Darnold’s timing, leveraging the same deceptive structure that had proven effective earlier in the game.
Darnold, looking for a deep crosser over the middle, noticed McDuffie occupying the passing window and hesitated. Instead of taking advantage of Justin Jefferson, who was wide open running up the seam for a potential big gain, Darnold forced an incomplete pass to Jalen Nailor on an underneath route.
This decision highlighted the effectiveness of Hafley’s scheme, as the disguised coverage and disciplined zone drops successfully disrupted Darnold’s reads and prevented a significant play.
The Packers’ ability to execute the same concept twice with success underscored their defensive coordination and the Vikings’ struggles to adjust.
Here are some variations to this defensive play call. You can see Hafley used a variety of ways to spin the coverage to Tampa-2, including getting the corners to bail as the deep half defenders.
Outlook
It will be interesting to see what layers and tweaks Hafley makes to the scheme in 2025 with nearly all of the key players returning. Will Hafley keep the same formula and will these rates stay the same? Or will we see an uptick in blitz rate if the philosophy changes?
One reason to think they wouldn’t see an uptick is that their blitz rate went from 27.4% overall to 19.7% when leading by 10 or more. If the Packers are winning late in games, there’s no need to take unnecessary risks with blitzes that could leave them vulnerable. Either way, it will be interesting to see how Hafley evolves the scheme and what self-scouting they did to make those improvements. Unfortunately, we’ll have until week one of the regular season.