Europeans feel caught between the hammer and the anvil. Vladimir Putin’s Russia is attacking not only Ukraine but the whole system that keeps 500m-plus people (mostly) free, safe, and prosperous. More potent than dirty money, propaganda, sabotage, and subversion is the deadly tactic of divide and rule, exemplified by the recent rupture in the Atlantic alliance. If Europe’s security hegemon is now taking Russia’s side, it is not just Ukraine that seems doomed. What can Europeans possibly do?
One option is to freeze into terrified immobility. Perhaps it will all blow over. Perhaps Donald Trump will realize that the United States needs Europe. Perhaps Putin will overreach, or die. Perhaps unicorns will scamper down a rainbow into Red Square.
Or perhaps there is nothing we can do. Our fate is sealed. Europe can scarcely defend itself without American military support, and certainly not if the US turns outright hostile. So the only thing to do is negotiate a surrender. Give Putin and Trump what they want, and hope they do not hurt us too badly. Better red than dead, as some used to say in the Cold War.
Europe’s opinion-formers must avoid making the public think like this. We must depict the threat correctly, as imminent and existential, but at the same time explain what to do about it.
Remember the numbers. The United States is not the only economic superpower. The European Union is one, too. If President Trump wants a purely transactional relationship with Europe, then both sides, not only the Europeans, will be the losers… Europeans cannot force the US to defend them. But they can make it clear that attacks — tariffs, tantrums, or anything else — come at a high price. Hard bargaining teaches hard lessons.
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Russia should be easier. Its population is one-third of the EU’s, and its economy is a bit smaller than Italy’s. So Europe could easily if it wanted to deliver a reminder to Putin about where the real power lies: seizing Russia’s frozen central bank assets or using them to back loans for Ukraine, would be a good first step.
In short, Europe is not a giant version of Poland in September 1939, attacked from east and west by far larger foes. It has agency: the people and the money to determine its own future. True, time is short, and political decision-making is slow. Yet that is fixable, too. We do not see Russian tanks trundling through the streets of Brussels, Paris, Berlin, and Rome. Europe’s governing elite has not been rounded up in the small hours and deported to chop trees in labor camps. Kremlin commissars have not imposed controls on public debate, the media, and academia. Nobody risks losing their job for arguing for unity and resolve in standing up to the threats from Washington and Moscow. In short, nothing is stopping Europe’s leaders from leading and doing so effectively—except Europe’s leaders.
To be fair, a lot is now happening. The European Commission’s defense white paper is a notable step forward. The Rearmament Bank—a plan I co-authored—is gathering support. Behind the scenes are hectic discussions on topics ranging from conscription to intelligence-sharing and nuclear weapons.
Politicians will need to talk clearly and firmly to their voters. They should be humble too. All these changes in our defense, deterrence, resilience, and security will be far costlier, riskier, and more disruptive now.
But the message is still simple. Don’t sit whimpering on the anvil, awaiting the hammer blows. Jump, run, shout, seek help—and fight back, particularly when you are at least as big and strong as your assailants.
Edward Lucas is a Non-resident Senior Fellow and Senior Advisor at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Comprehensive Report
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February 10, 2025
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Europe's Edge
CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America.
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