Mar 3, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Sacramento Kings guard Keon Ellis (23) reacts during the second half against the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
The Sacramento Kings are a much different team today than it was in October. There has been several franchise-changing decisions that left a roster that has many of us scratching our heads. One of the biggest questions right now (and really for quite some time), is: Why isn’t Keon Ellis getting more minutes?
He played 36 minutes in Malik Monk’s absence against the Milwaukee Bucks Saturday and finished with 20 points (60% from the field), 9 rebounds and 6 assists.
#### **Too Many Cooks in the Kitchen**
Doug Christie is trying to make this roster work right now, but the problem is there are too many ball-dominant players in the starting lineup. The numbers back it up:
DeMar DeRozan takes up 24.6% of the possessions (92nd percentile in usage), according to Cleaning The Glass. Zach LaVine has had a usage rate in the 90th percentile or higher since 2017-18, but and has tried to scale back since arriving in Sacramento – he is in the 57th percentile usage at 23.1%. That is the second lowest of his career. However, he is primarily looking to score instead of creating for his teammates – he is in the 7th percentile for assist-to-usage ratio (how often he gets an assist compared to how much he has the ball), the lowest of his career.
Even with LaVine trying to adapt to playing next to DeRozan in “Chicago-West,” these two are still accounting for close to half of the team’s possessions. Adding in a third high-usage player in Malik Monk (94th percentile in usage) is like adding yet another candy store to Old Sacramento.
Is it really needed or effective?
#### **The Ellis Effect**
This is where things get interesting: With Keon Ellis in the lineup with LaVine, DeRozan, Keegan Murray and Domantas Sabonis, the Kings cook – this lineup has a +18.1 differential, the highest of any lineup this season. When Monk plays with those same players instead on Ellis, the team has a -8.5 differential.
That is a pretty big gap.
That lineup with Ellis also is in the 95th percentile in points scored per 100 possessions. This lineup also allows 117 points per 100 possessions. The lineup with Monk is in the 49th percentile in points scored and allows 125 points per 100 possessions.
Even more interesting: The best lineup in terms of points allowed features Ellis, Monk, DeRozan, Murray and Sabonis. That same lineup is a +17.9 in differential so starting both Ellis and Monk and benching LaVine might be a good option (that will probably never happen).
Everyone knows what Ellis brings on the defensive end, but it isn’t just that he helps the team when he is on the floor, he is the ideal complementary player for the high-volume scorers on the roster. He doesn’t touch the ball all that much on offense (he is in the 0th percentile in usage at just 12.2%) and he is in the 99th percentile in effective field goal percentage, according to Clean The Glass. He is always making the right play and hitting the open shot while never demanding the ball.
On a team with several guys who need to ball in their hands to score, he doesn’t take away from them while helping.
On defense Ellis, who is averaging 23 minutes per game this season, is:
* 98th percentile in block percentage
* 93rd percentile in steal percentage
#### **The Monk Dilemma**
With De’Aaron Fox in San Antonio, and Markelle Fultz not a consistently reliable option in Christie’s rotation, Monk is the only player close enough to a starting NBA point guard the Kings have. He is a good playmaker (97th percentile in assist percentage and 85th percentile in assist to usage ratio) and can create shots for himself and others in ways that no one else on the roster can.
The problem is he is more of a shooting guard, so his natural instincts as a player are to create shots for himself. He is in the 94th percentile in usage at 25.3% this season. Pair that with DeRozan and LaVine and you have 73% of the possessions being dominated by just those three. There just aren’t enough possessions for everyone, spacing gets complicated, and the ball doesn’t move.
LaVine is trying to fit in and not make things worse. His usage rate has dropped since joining the Kings while his points per shot attempt is the highest of his career (98th percentile).
Playing alongside Monk has to complicate the readjustment to sharing possessions with DeRozan again for LaVine.
#### **Both Guys Help the Team Win**
With the strange fit between LaVine and DeRozan, it really isn’t an argument of who helps more between Ellis and Monk. It is simply how they help because both do help.
Check out the on/off numbers:
* Ellis: 82nd percentile differential (+5.6 points per 100 possessions)
* Monk: 79th percentile differential (+5.3 points per 100 possessions)
They both make positive impacts.
#### **Try Starting Ellis**
So, both players are good, it is just on Christie, who is in the head coaching spot for the first time, to figure out how to take over for the coach of the year, manage losing the team’s star player and make this roster fit together.
No easy task.
But the data shows that Ellis fits better next to LaVine and DeRozan because he doesn’t dominate the ball, provides spacing and plays defense. His three-point shooting gives DeRozan room for his midrange game and LaVine’s drives. He also averages 43% from three.
Monk is a solid playmaker and can drive and kick out to shooters, or run a pick and roll. But he has to do it by dominating the ball, which takes the ball out of the hands of the two guys who need it the most to score. And he is averaging just 32% from three. As he did much of Mike Brown’s tenure as head coach, Monk could go back to the bench and dominate second units and not have to compete with two All-Stars for touches in the starting lineup. Monk could still play heavy minutes and close games if the matchup lends itself to it.
These rotation decisions matter when considering positioning for the play-in tournament, and the Kings are 3-7 over the last 10 games. To be fair to Monk, he did not play in three of those losses, but the team was 2-4 with him.
Christie has to manage egos and contract size in the process. This is stuff not all coaches are great at and while Doug has done an admirable job, it is a tough spot to be in, especially as a first-time head coach.