Arsenal's interest in Benjamin Sesko last summer was entirely understandable. A run of goals in seven consecutive Bundesliga matches, often in powerful fashion, is enough to elevate someone onto the world stage.
Sesko was one of the big names to watch at Euro 2024 and for good reason. He had plundered 11 in the final 15 league matches of the season for RB Leipzig, assisting another two. Between January 27 and May 18 he only failed to contribute in three games out of 16.
His form for Slovakia was there too. A rapid runner with height and immense, highly clippable, aesthetics. Sesko was the talk of the town and looked to make a lot of sense for Arsenal.
Mikel Arteta needed inspiration and creativity to open up tight matches, especially against low defences. Sesko has a lot of the ingredients for impacting matches, often out of nowhere.
He has followed up 14 Bundesliga goals in 17 starts with 10 from 24 so far this campaign. He has more assists this year as well, already reaching five. Sesko is trusted more after playing a full season in Germany and still yet to turn 22.
There is a lot of hype around Sesko and it remains, even if he isn't scoring with quite the same level of regularity. He is simply less in the spotlight.
His career to date is one of patches. Prone to stretches without goals, Sesko can hit form without any prior warning. This season he scored in one of the first eight league games, starting all of them, as well as just two of the first 12.
Arsene Wenger alongside Lauren, Freddie Ljungberg and Kolo Toure during an Arsenal training session on March 23, 2004 (Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
That was followed up with five goals in as many games before being sent off. He got both a goal and an assist in two games out of three last month. He is an enigma.
The underlying numbers tell the same story. On one hand he is outperforming his xG (expected goals) yet again. He was nearly twice as prolific as the metric suggested he would be last season and has scored almost three more than the model expected this year.
That usually indicates a good finisher but Sesko has an xG per shot of 0.13 this season, which is lower than the 0.16 he managed last term as well. Kai Havertz, the man Sesko would be replacing or competing with, recorded 0.18 xG per shot this season, which is the highest in the Arsenal squad for anyone with more than 20 attempts in the league.
Sesko's 0.18 is lower than Mikel Merino and Gabriel Jesus, marginally under Gabriel Martinelli. He is a fierce shot taker, averaging more than 2.5 per match, which is in line with the Arsenal players, but that is in a league which favours chaos and open space.
Whereas Arsenal are often up against deep defences, Sesko rarely faces anything of the like with Germany's transitional style. He is also not a massive link player, although he does have decent and developing technique.
Sesko is learning, as is natural. He is not the finished article Arsenal may need to take the next step right now, though. Perhaps this is why they are happy to pursue him with Havertz as the main No.9. Sesko can adapt and act as rotation whilst offering something entirely different from the bench.
The question is how transferable is this? Sesko's xG for the shots that he did score were valued at 0.25 on average last season and 0.27 this season. In contrast, Havertz's goals came from shots with an average xG of 0.47 and 0.46. It says that he is getting and taking more high quality opportunities.
Leipzig's Slovenian forward #30 Benjamin Sesko celebrates scoring his team's first goal during the German first division Bundesliga football match between RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt
(Image: AFP via Getty Images)
That is the way that Arsenal play. They may well be able to generate the same sort of situations for Sesko, who is tall like Havertz. The risk, which is applicable to all transfers, is if it will work with his playing style. Does Sesko have the game intelligence and fit for Arsenal?
His instincts are less predictable, as opposed to Havertz who has been coached by the control-seeking Arteta as well as two years under Thomas Tuchel. These are two positional heavy managers whereas Sesko is playing in a much more free-flowing environment.
At more than £55million, it is quite the gamble to take. If he can develop the desired tendancies and hone his craft for English football then there is still a lot to like but Liverpool have seen a similar struggle with Darwin Nunez and the comparisons are fair.
Nunez cost £85million as a 22-year-old with one senior season of serious goalscoring. He fired in 26 from 24 starts in Portugal one year after managing less than 10.
What has been evident is that Nunez's flashes of quality are not enough to sustain a team. Jurgen Klopp saw it that way and Arne Slot has been even more dramatic in his use, offering only eight starts in the league.
Nunez is no longer anything more than an impact player who cannot be planned for or caged. He is an ambitious shot-taker and attempted more than 4.7 per match last season. His xG per shot is still higher than Sesko's. So too, it must be said, is Bukayo Saka's, but he really is an elite finisher.
Sesko and Nunez are able to cheat the system in some ways because they do tend to score the occasional long-range strikes. The issue is that it is not necessarily sustainable.
The only way to find out is to try it and see. For such an important transfer, Arsenal need to be sure they are set on Sesko before going into what could be an exciting but unique partnership.
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Arsenal Manager Mikel Arteta, Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard and Gabriel Jesus with the Arsenal Therapy Dog Win during the Arsenal Men's team group shoot at London Colney on September 18, 2023
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