If Hezbollah continues to clash with the new Syrian government, this could encourage the government to lean on other extremist militias.
On March 17, Lebanon and Syria agreed to a ceasefire after clashes on Lebanon’s northern border with Syria had led to at least ten deaths. The clashes are the latest to take place on the Syria-Lebanon border due to the presence of Hezbollah. The new Syrian government, which came to power last December after the fall of the Assad regime, is trying to stabilize parts of Syria after fourteen years of civil war. Nonetheless, the continued activity of Hezbollah along the border is threatening stability in Syria.
This is important because Syria is at a crossroads. On March 20, German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock came to Damascus to meet with Syria’s new leadership. She met Syria’s transitional president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and other officials. “More than three months after the end of the Assad dictatorship, the people in Syria long for a fresh start and genuine prospects for rebuilding their lives in their country,” her office said in a statement. When the foreign minister arrived in Damascus, she added that “it is imperative that extremist groups in their ranks are brought under control and those responsible for crimes are held accountable.”
The statement referred to the recent clashes that took place in northwestern Syria’s Latakia in early March. Pro-Assad armed fighters were accused of killing members of the new Syrian security forces. In response, a number of militias rampaged in Latakia, killing members of the Alawite minority. Damascus appears to have hesitated to subdue the disorder and punish the perpetrators to prevent further clashes.
Around 100 miles from the areas of the clashes in Latakia is the town of Qusayr in Syria. It is the gateway to northern Lebanon. During the Syrian Civil War, members of Hezbollah used Qusayr as a waystation as they moved into Syria to back the Assad regime. In those days, Hezbollah was an ally of Damascus, and it could transit this area openly. Hezbollah still has thousands of armed men in Lebanon, where it has stockpiled a large number of rockets and other munitions for “resistance” against Israel. However, Hezbollah has also used these weapons to persecute Lebanese and prop up the Assad regime. Hezbollah and Assad were both backed by Iran.
When the Assad regime fell on December 8, 2024, this was a setback for Hezbollah. It came as Israel had also pounded Hezbollah during months of fighting between September and November 2024. Israel increased its strikes on Hezbollah after the group refused to stop attacks on Israel. Hezbollah had been backing Hamas in Gaza and had fired thousands of rockets and drones into Israel since October 2023. It was in this context that the Assad regime fell. Sharaa came to power, and because the new powers in Damascus opposed Hezbollah and Iran’s involvement in Syria, Tehran could no longer depend on its land route through the country.
The Sharaa government is trying to unify Syria. Sharaa was the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group that once had ties with Al Qaeda. However, today, Sharaa is trying to portray himself as a modern figure in a new Syria. Not only has he hosted Western diplomats and visited Turkey and various Arab states, but also he has signed a deal with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria.
Hezbollah appears to want to spoil this. Damascus has intercepted several shipments of arms that were allegedly destined for Hezbollah over the last months. The clashes near Qusayr are part of this story. Hezbollah has killed members of the Syrian security forces and continues to destabilize the border. This is the same model Hezbollah uses in southern Lebanon to threaten Israel. While Hezbollah posed as “resisting” Israel, it can’t use this excuse in Syria since many Syrians were victims of Hezbollah during the Syrian Civil War.
If Hezbollah continues to clash with the new Syrian government, this could encourage the government to lean on other extremist militias, such as those that attacked Alawites in Latakia in early March. It could also lead to other intrigues with Iran or Russia, which both backed the Assad regime and continue to have interests in Syria. Russia has an army base in Latakia, for instance. In addition, if the Syrian government can’t control the border, it will be harder for it to deal with ISIS threats and work with Kurdish SDF to integrate the various security forces and armed groups in Syria.
Much is in play in Syria. This is a sensitive time. Many Iranian-backed groups are now hard-pressed in the region. The United States began airstrikes on the Iranian-backed Houthis in mid-March, for instance. Hezbollah is weakened, and Lebanon has a new president and prime minister who may rein in the group. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq appear more divided than in the past. Israel launched a new offensive against Hamas on March 18. If the United States and other countries pressure Lebanon to rein in Hezbollah and prevent more clashes with Syria, this could go a long way to help stabilize Damascus and reduce the threat of extremism.
Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets at @sfrantzman.
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