The U.S. Navy is poised to announce a decision this week that could reshape its carrier-based air power for decades, selecting the winner of the F/A-XX program—a next-generation stealth fighter designed to counter China’s growing military reach in the Indo-Pacific.
F/A-18 Super Hornets from Truman hit Houthi sites in Yemen
CENTCOM Video screenshot
Sources familiar with the process, speaking on condition of anonymity due to its sensitivity, indicate that the Navy will choose between Boeing and Northrop Grumman for the engineering and manufacturing development phase of this multibillion-dollar effort.
Unveiled as a replacement for the aging F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fleet, the F/A-XX is expected to bring advanced stealth, extended range, and seamless integration with uncrewed combat aircraft, positioning it as a linchpin in America’s strategy to maintain naval dominance.
The decision, overseen by newly confirmed Secretary of the Navy John Phelan as of March 24, 2025, carries a short-term contract value in the single-digit billions, with potential costs soaring into the hundreds of billions over its lifecycle. With China’s assertiveness driving the urgency, this choice may signal a new era for how the U.S. projects force from its carriers.
The F/A-XX program emerges at a critical juncture for the Navy, which faces a sophisticated adversary in China’s rapidly modernizing fleet, including J-20 stealth fighters and advanced anti-ship missiles. Unlike its predecessor, the Super Hornet, the new jet is envisioned as more than a standalone platform—it’s a hub for a networked “family of systems” that includes drones and cutting-edge sensors.
The Navy declined to comment ahead of the official announcement, but insiders suggest the competition has narrowed to Boeing and Northrop Grumman after Lockheed Martin reportedly fell out of contention earlier this month, per a Reuters report on March 4.
Boeing brings recent wins like the Air Force’s F-47 contract and its MQ-25 Stingray uncrewed tanker, while Northrop Grumman leverages its stealth pedigree from the B-2 and B-21 bombers. The stakes extend beyond the aircraft itself, potentially deciding which company will lead the integration of piloted and unpiloted air power on America’s carriers through the 2030s and beyond.
This announcement marks a pivotal milestone in the F/A-XX timeline. The engineering and manufacturing development phase will refine the jet’s design, paving the way for production models expected to enter service in the early 2030s, with Super Hornets slated to fly into the 2040s.
The Navy’s requirements are ambitious: a fighter with enhanced stealth to evade modern radars, greater endurance for long-range missions across the Pacific, and the ability to coordinate with uncrewed platforms like the Collaborative Combat Aircraft being developed under separate programs.
These capabilities aim to address China’s anti-access/area-denial [A2/AD] strategy, which relies on missile barrages and air defenses to keep U.S. carriers at bay. “The F/A-XX isn’t just about replacing an old jet—it’s about redefining how we fight from the sea,” said Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and former Navy strategist, in a recent interview. “Whoever wins this will set the tone for carrier aviation against a peer competitor.”
Boeing enters the fray with a mixed but promising portfolio. The company has faced turbulence—labor strikes, layoffs, and setbacks with the Starliner capsule and KC-46 tanker—but its recent F-47 win for the Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance program signals a rebound.
The MQ-25 Stingray, already in testing as the Navy’s first carrier-based uncrewed refueling drone, gives Boeing a head start in integrating piloted and unpiloted systems. A spokesperson for Boeing declined to comment on the F/A-XX competition but pointed to the company’s “proven track record in naval aviation,” citing its production of the F/A-18 and EA-18G Growler.
Industry analysts suggest that securing both F-47 and F/A-XX could allow Boeing to streamline costs by sharing materials—like advanced composites—and technologies, such as radar or propulsion systems, across the programs. “If Boeing pulls this off, they could dominate U.S. fighter production for a generation,” said Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, in an email exchange.
Northrop Grumman, meanwhile, offers a different strengths profile. Known for its stealth expertise, the company has delivered the B-2 Spirit and the B-21 Raider, both of which redefined bomber design with low-observable technology. While Northrop hasn’t built a carrier-based fighter since the F-14 Tomcat era, its experience with complex airframes and advanced avionics positions it as a contender.
The firm’s work on the X-47B, an uncrewed combat air vehicle demonstrator that landed on a carrier in 2013, also hints at its potential to innovate in the uncrewed space. A Northrop spokesperson declined to discuss specifics but emphasized the company’s “legacy of pushing boundaries in aerospace.”
Analysts speculate that Northrop could adapt B-21 technologies—like radar-absorbent coatings or sensor fusion—for a smaller, carrier-capable jet, offering a fresh approach distinct from Boeing’s evolutionary path.
Lockheed Martin’s apparent exit from the race adds intrigue. The maker of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter was once seen as a frontrunner, given its dominance in fifth-generation aircraft. However, sources cited by Reuters suggest the Navy found Lockheed’s proposal lacking in key areas, such as an advanced radar system and carrier landing performance—critical for operations on pitching decks.
The company did not respond to requests for comment, and the Navy has yet to confirm the elimination formally. This shift may reflect a strategic choice to avoid over-reliance on a single contractor, especially after the F-35’s well-documented cost overruns and delays, which have exceeded $1.7 trillion over its lifecycle, per Government Accountability Office estimates.
The F/A-XX’s role extends beyond hardware to the Navy’s broader vision for carrier strike groups. Facing China’s DF-21D and DF-26 “carrier killer” missiles, which boast ranges up to 4,000 kilometers, the U.S. needs aircraft that can strike from greater distances and survive contested airspace.
The new jet’s integration with uncrewed systems could amplify this capability, allowing drones to scout, jam, or strike while the F/A-XX directs operations from a safer standoff range. “This is about building a networked force,” said Peter Singer, a defense technology expert at New America, in a recent podcast. “The winner needs to prove they can make piloted and unpiloted aircraft work as a team.” Boeing’s MQ-25 experience could give it an edge here, though Northrop’s X-47B history suggests it’s not out of the game.
The industrial implications are equally significant. The F/A-XX contract, while starting in the billions, could balloon into a $200-300 billion program over decades, factoring in production, maintenance, and upgrades for hundreds of jets, according to projections from the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
For Boeing, a win would solidify its recovery and potentially reshape its aerospace division, which employs over 60,000 in the U.S., per company data. Northrop, with a smaller fighter portfolio, could see a victory to revive its legacy in naval aviation, diversifying a business currently anchored by bombers and drones.
“This isn’t just a contract—it’s a lifeline for one of these companies,” said Loren Thompson, chief operating officer at the Lexington Institute, in a phone interview. “The loser might struggle to stay in the fighter game.”
China looms large over this decision. The People’s Liberation Army Navy has expanded its carrier fleet, with the Fujian—a Type 003 vessel—entering trials in 2024, boasting electromagnetic catapults akin to the U.S. Ford-class carriers. Coupled with the J-20 and rumored uncrewed wingmen, China’s air power poses a direct challenge to U.S. naval supremacy.
The F/A-XX aims to restore that edge, offering a sixth-generation leap over the fifth-generation F-35 and aging Super Hornets. Specifications remain classified, but Navy documents reviewed by congressional committees in 2023 outline goals for a combat radius exceeding 1,000 nautical miles—double that of the F/A-18—and stealth surpassing the F-35’s, tailored to penetrate dense A2/AD networks.
The competition’s intensity reflects its stakes. Boeing and Northrop submitted detailed proposals and prototypes after years of concept work, with the Navy conducting rigorous evaluations at facilities like Patuxent River Naval Air Station. Insiders describe a process marked by secrecy and high pressure, with test data closely guarded.
The winner will face immense scrutiny to deliver on time and budget—unlike the F-35, which saw its first flight delayed by years and costs spiral. “The Navy can’t afford another overrun,” said Clark. “They’ll be watching every step.” Production jets won’t hit carrier decks for nearly a decade, giving the contractor time to refine designs but also raising the risk of technological obsolescence if China advances faster.
For the U.S., the F/A-XX is part of a broader modernization push. Alongside the Air Force’s NGAD and the Navy’s DDG[X] destroyer program, it represents a generational shift to counter peer rivals. The integration with uncrewed systems aligns with initiatives like the Air Force’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft, expected to pair with F-47s, suggesting a future where drones extend the reach and survivability of piloted jets.
Boeing’s dual role in F-47 and MQ-25 could streamline this vision, while Northrop’s stealth focus might prioritize raw survivability over networked complexity. “It’s a trade-off between evolution and revolution,” said Aboulafia. “The Navy’s pick will show which they value more.”
As the announcement nears, the decision rests with Secretary Phelan and Navy leadership, who assumed their roles amid a charged political climate. The winner will inherit a legacy of expectation, tasked with ensuring U.S. carriers remain unmatched in contested waters.
Whether Boeing’s scale or Northrop’s innovation prevails, the F/A-XX will carry the weight of redefining naval air power—not just against China, but for an era where technology and strategy evolve at breakneck speed.
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