Nearly half a century ago, China had an audacious vision—halt the world’s fastest-growing desert by building the world’s largest man-made forest.
Since 1978, the Three-North Shelter Forest Program (TNSP), more famously known as the “Great Green Wall,” has been quietly covering millions of hectares of arid and semi-arid land with vegetation.
Designed to hold back the encroaching Gobi Desert and reverse the tide of desertification, the project aims to cover nearly 350,000 square kilometers with trees by 2050—nearly the size of Germany.
On the surface, the numbers are staggering.
As per official figures, over 30 million hectares of forest have already been planted and China’s forest cover has expanded from about 10% of the country’s area in 1949 to over 25% today. In some areas, tree belts and shrubland strips now visibly anchor shifting dunes, while solar farms in the desert—which are a part of China’s renewable energy push—have created cooler microclimates for vegetation and livestock.
But even as the campaign is hailed as a landmark in ecological restoration, there may yet be cause for caution. Beneath the canopy lies a tangle of challenges that hint at deeper vulnerabilities—some ecological, others systemic.
A Lot Has Worked For The Great Green Wall So Far
From a macro perspective, China's reforestation program has delivered some real gains. Forest cover across the country has expanded significantly in recent years. Remote sensing data from NASA and the Chinese Academy of Sciences also confirms widespread greening across key northern zones.
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In places like the Gobi fringe, where farming once exacerbated land degradation, government-backed projects have encouraged transitions toward more sustainable land uses like agroforestry and ecotourism.
As the program evolved, so too have its methods. In more recent years, officials have focused more on planting native drought-tolerant shrubs. There has also been a growing emphasis on preserving existing vegetation and restoring degraded grasslands—often more effective than planting new trees in desert-prone regions.
However, A Lot Of Cracks Still Remain
While the imagery of encircled deserts and rejuvenated landscapes suggests a success story, scientific scrutiny says there’s a lot yet to be told. One of the recurring challenges facing the program has been the tree survival rate.
Many species introduced in the early phases of the program—especially fast-growing poplars and pines grown in monoculture plantations—were poorly suited to the harsh, dry environments of northern China.
Lacking deep roots and demanding high water inputs, these trees often failed to establish long-term ecosystems. In fact, a January 2023 study published in GIScience and Remote Sensing found that only about 10% of the trees planted on sandy land in China over 40 years ago are still alive today.
The consequences extend beyond wasted effort. Monoculture plantations, while effective in sequestering carbon, tend to support low biodiversity and are more vulnerable to collapse under climate stress. In Ningxia, a major afforestation zone, outbreaks involving the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) have wiped out millions of poplar trees, erasing decades of progress.
Afforestation in arid zones also comes with an unintended cost.
Trees consume more water than grasses or shrubs, and in some parts of Southwest China, large-scale planting has led to significant declines in groundwater levels. Afforestation in Southwest China could contribute to an uptake of up to 10% of the annual water supply available in the region, according to a March 2020 study published in Scientific Reports.
For all of China’s efforts with the TNSP, however, desertification has appeared defiant in its cause. As of 2024, China’s desert cover had only reduced to 26.8% from 27.2% a decade ago.
The Great Green Wall May Still Hold Some Promise
Despite these setbacks, there are areas where the Great Green Wall has made tangible improvements. One promising shift in recent years has been the diversification of strategy.
Rather than relying solely on afforestation, the Chinese government has begun focusing more on protecting existing vegetation, particularly grasslands and native shrublands that are naturally resilient to arid conditions. These ecosystems not only require less water but also support greater biodiversity and more stable long-term carbon storage.
Some types of shrublands naturally thrive in arid landscapes, helping to stabilize soil and support ... More biodiversity.getty
More recently, there has been a heightened focus on bringing renewable energy into the mix through solar farms. These installations provide renewable energy while also reducing wind speeds and soil evaporation, creating favorable conditions for vegetation growth. In some cases, medicinal plants like licorice have been cultivated under the panels, enhancing soil health and offering additional income streams.
The central challenge is balancing ambition with ecology. In areas like Duolun County — once vastly made up of sand land — strategic planting has improved forest cover and stabilized dunes. Yet in drier zones, pushing fast-growth species without hydrological planning risks undermining the very ecosystems the wall aims to protect.
Still, China’s afforestation campaign has evolved. Where early phases may have prioritized optics and metrics, recent years show signs of adaptive learning — improved species selection, better integration with local water systems and mixed-use landscapes that align more closely with long-term sustainability.
In that sense, China’s Great Green Wall is more of a learning curve. And the lessons it offers, in a world racing to plant its way out of climate and biodiversity crises, may prove even more valuable than the forests themselves.
China’s efforts to counter climate change highlights the fragility of our relationship with nature. How do you feel about our chances against the worst that climate change has to offer? Take a 2-minute test to see where you stand on theClimate Change Worry Scale.