Ruud van Nistelrooy has vowed not to give up on Leicester City’s Premier League survival until it’s mathematically impossible, but is there a point at which that approach becomes detrimental?
Should City, instead, look to get a headstart on next season in the Championship by beginning their planning now?
As things stand, City are nine points from safety with nine games to go. To stay up, they need to eclipse the great escape of 10 years ago, when they recovered from a deficit of seven points at the same stage.
They must bridge that gap on the back of 13 defeats in 14 league matches, having failed to score in 11 of those games.
Many fans have conceded defeat and are now looking ahead to next season back in the Championship. Stats group Opta reckon City have a 0.5 per cent chance of survival.
But van Nistelrooy’s approach is understandable. Odds of one in 200 don’t feel insurmountable for a club that has achieved a 5,000-1 feat. Stranger things have happened than a relegation-battling side winning four or five matches.
So on the pitch, for now, the plan should be to try to pull off a miracle. Off the pitch, planning has to begin.
The club have to be thinking about the make-up of the squad for next season in the second tier. Which players will leave in the event of relegation, either because they don’t fancy the Championship or because they need to be sold to balance the budget?
Which players on loan or in the academy can come into the fold? Which positions would the club then be short in? Where would they need to strengthen and where does the budget need to be spent? Then it’s about scouting potential signings, so that a quick start can be made in the transfer window.
In the event that City lose to Man City and Newcastle next week, and Wolves beat West Ham and Ipswich, the gap would be 15 points with 21 to play for. It would effectively be over.
At that point, it would make more sense to consider changes on the pitch to prepare for next season too.
If van Nistelrooy and City are true to their word and both stand by the Dutchman’s contract in the event of relegation, then the manager will want to be thinking about next season as well.
Perhaps he should start fielding only those players who he anticipates being in the squad from August, players with something to prove, allowing him to get a feel for how they work together.
Maybe he could bring more academy talents into the fold, to give them a taste of senior football before they’re thrust into the action next term.
It would get fans interested but would it be sensible? It may harm their development and confidence if they come into a side that is losing every week.
Then there’s the case of Jamie Vardy. It seems unlikely he will still be at City if they go down, but fans would not like to be denied the final few games of his career at the club because he doesn't factor into planning for a season in the Championship. There is a balance to strike.
They have less solid foundations than City, but Luton have shown what can happen to Premier League clubs who don’t adjust well.
City have to get it right to ensure they’re in contention to come straight back up. That means, off the pitch, they start planning now. They’re probably only a few games away from doing so on the pitch too.
At what point should van Nistelrooy start preparing for next season? Click HERE to have your say.
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