They had everything but didn’t get the ring. Our historical TRACR ranks the greatest teams since 1986-87 that failed to win the NBA Finals. Is your team in the top 10?
Oklahoma City Thunder fans will say it’s all pointless speculation. And they’re probably right.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (NBA-best 32.8 points per game) and the Thunder keep cruising along – almost under the radar while teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors and players like Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Nikola Jokic garner much of the attention.
Oklahoma City has won six in a row and is a league-best 22-3 since the start of February. The team leads the NBA in winning percentage (.831) and ranks second in points allowed per game (106.9) – just behind the Orlando Magic (106.1).
If that holds up, the Thunder would be the first team to rank first in winning percentage and in the top two defensively since the 2011-12 Chicago Bulls. Only five teams have finished that way over the past 35 years.
Given all of the above, our projection model gives OKC a whopping 47.6% chance of winning it all. It’s an impressive number, but it also means there’s a better chance (52.4%) they won’t claim the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
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Our historical TRACR model, which goes back to the 1986-87 season, normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate numbers (think the run-and-gun 1980s compared to the stifling defense of the ’90s) by considering advanced metrics and other factors on both sides of the ball to calculate how many points per 100 possessions better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club during the season.
From that output, we’re able to create an offensive TRACR (O-TRACR), defensive TRACR and overall TRACR. Lower is better for defensive TRACR (D-TRACR).
Entering the week, OKC ranks second in O-TRACR (7.0) behind the East-best Cleveland Cavaliers and first in D-TRACR (minus-6.8) ahead of the previously mentioned Magic.
There’s a long way to go still, but should they maintain their 13.8 overall TRACR and fall short of winning the NBA championship, the Thunder would be the highest-rated team not to win a title. The Cavs, with a TRACR of 8.8 but only a 17.6% probably of winning it all, would actually be eighth on that list.
Remember, only one team can win that last game in June. But for now, here’s the list of greatest teams that fell short of winning it all, per TRACR (since 1986-87).
1. 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs (11.7 TRACR)
We know what you’re saying. What about the 73-win Warriors? But that Golden State team overshadows just how good the 67-win Spurs were that season. For much of the campaign, both teams were on a blistering pace. Entering play on Jan. 25, 2016, the Warriors were 40-4 and the Spurs 38-6.
At the end of the regular season, the Warriors had a plus-10.8 point differential while the Spurs had a 10.6 mark. This San Antonio team ranks as the sixth-best team in TRACR since 1986-87, while Golden State is eighth. Both teams were stunned in the wild 2016 NBA playoffs.
tracr ranks
(*-as of March 23, 2025)
2. 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (11.0)
When Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman and the 1995-96 Bulls were on the way to breaking the regular season win mark at 72-10, they said “it doesn’t mean a thing without the ring.” So even though the 2015-16 Warriors made history by breaking the Bulls wins record at 73-9, they’re left on this dubious list after blowing a 3-1 series lead against LeBron James and the Cavaliers in the NBA Finals. The 2015-16 and 2016-17 Warriors are the 12th- and 11th-best teams in O-TRACR, respectively.
3. 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers (10.3)
LeBron James was only in his sixth season when he led the Cavs to an NBA-best 66-16 in 2008-09. He averaged 28.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.2 blocks on the way to the first of his four NBA MVPs. Cleveland rolled into the Eastern Conference finals with an 8-0 record before falling to Dwight Howard and the Magic in six games.
4. 2012-13 Oklahoma City Thunder (9.6)
With Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant in their prime and forming one of the best tandems in NBA history, the Thunder rolled to a Western Conference-best 60-22 record. But during the team’s opening-round win over the Houston Rockets, Westbrook suffered a torn meniscus and was ruled out for remainder of the playoffs. Instead of heading toward an NBA Finals rematch with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and the defending champion Miami Heat, the Thunder lost to the Memphis Grizzlies in the West semifinals.
In this photo taken Wednesday, April 24, 2013, Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook grabs his right knee during the second quarter of Game 2 of a first-round NBA basketball playoff series against the Houston Rockets in Oklahoma City. Westbrook, who remained in the game, will have surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee and be out indefinitely, dealing a harsh blow to the City Thunder’s championship chances. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
In this photo taken Wednesday, April 24, 2013, Thunder guard Russell Westbrook grabs his right knee during the second quarter of Game 2 of a first-round playoff series against the Houston Rockets in Oklahoma City. Westbrook would need surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
5. 1996-97 Utah Jazz (9.3)
Reggie Miller. Charles Barkley. Patrick Ewing. There are plenty of players who never won a title because Michael Jordan and the Bulls stood in their way. John Stockton, Karl Malone and the Jazz made back-to-back trips to the NBA Finals in 1997 and 1998, only to lose to Chicago in six games both times. In the 1997-98 season, the Jazz finished a West-best and franchise-record 64-18.
6. 2018-19 Milwaukee Bucks (9.1)
The Bucks seemed to finally come of age in Giannis Antetokounmpo’s sixth season, winning 60 games for the first time since 1980-81. Giannis (27.7), Khris Middleton (18.3), Eric Bledsoe (15.9) and Malcolm Brogdon (15.6) all averaged at least 15 points per game. Milwaukee, however, lost four straight to the Toronto Raptors after winning the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals. The Raptors would go on to win the title in Kawhi Leonard’s only season with the franchise.
7. 2009-10 Orlando Magic (8.9)
After taking down LeBron James and the Cavaliers before losing to the Lakers in the 2009 NBA Finals, the Magic won 59 games for the second consecutive season. But Orlando fell short of getting another shot at the title, falling to Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and the Boston Celtics in the East finals.
8. 2003-04 San Antonio Spurs (8.7)
The Tim Duncan-Tony Parker Spurs won the NBA championship every other year between the 2002-03 and 2006-07 seasons. But in the seasons between when they didn’t win it all, they were just as good by the numbers. The 2003-04 Spurs rank as the best team since 1986-87 in D-TRACR. They won 57 games during the regular season, but lost to Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone, Shaquille O’Neal, Gary Payton and the Lakers in the West semis.
D-TRACR
9. 1995-96 Utah Jazz (8.7)
With Stockton and Malone leading the way, the Jazz put together an NBA-best .678 winning percentage (701-333) between the 1988-89 and 2000-01 seasons. The Jazz won 55 games and nearly reached the NBA Finals for the first time in 1995-96. They lost 90-86 on the road to the 64-win Seattle SuperSonics in Game 7 of the West finals.
10. 1993-94 Seattle SuperSonics (8.6)
These SuperSonics were two years away from reaching the NBA Finals for the first time since winning their only title in 1979. They were dominant during the 1993-94 regular season, winning 17 of their last 19 games on the way to a franchise-record 63 games (they’d break that mark two years later). However, Seattle was the victim of one of the biggest upsets in NBA history when it lost as the top seed to the eighth-seeded Denver Nuggets. It’s hard to forget about Dikembe Mutombo clutching the ball at the end of Game 5.
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