Presented by Lloyds Banking Group
London Playbook
By EMILIO CASALICCHIO
with NOAH KEATE
Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio.
TUESDAY CHEAT SHEET
— Ministers are bigging up public service investments ahead of the spring statement — and playing down a fresh row about welfare cuts.
— Ministers gave the green light to a massive tunnel under the Thames. Without knowing who will foot the (📈) bill.
— Business groups are talking to the government about looming U.S. tariffs and preparing their pleas for help.
— The government was going nowhere near the White House group chat bomb squad antics.
— A minister threw a rock at Rachel Reeves over her freebie pop tickets.
— The U.S. is touting a breakthrough in Russia/Ukraine peace talks.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Right now, over 1.5 million households across the country are on waiting lists for social housing. At Lloyds Banking Group, we are continuing to champion social housing and that’s why we have supported £19.5 billion of funding to the sector since 2018. Find out what’s ahead**
TOP OF THE NEWSLIST
THE FINAL PITCH-ROLL: The government is honing its narrative and geeing up its troops ahead of what could be a bruising spring statement tomorrow.
Calling Dr Jones: In a private briefing to ministers late this morning, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones insisted planned Labour cuts pale in comparison to those under the Conservatives (IFS boss Paul Johnson was helping him out there) and argued plans to slash the welfare bill have (on the whole) public support.
That second bit is important because … ministers are worried the welfare reform impact assessment, set to be slipped out under cover of the spring statement tomorrow, could be a serious flashpoint with backbenchers who are fearing the worst about how the poorest could be hit.
Indeed: DPM Angela Rayner was on the airwaves at noon hoping to calm the waters over the welfare issue ahead of time. On Radio 4’s World at One show she accepted it had “been difficult” to sell some government policies, but argued giving people a solid shove towards the workplace is in their best interest. “It’s a working class thing that people do want to be able to provide for their families and themselves,” she said. “They don’t want handouts, they want support.”
Fingers crossed: Government insiders reckon the initial jitters about the cuts have abated somewhat, after MPs found the welfare announcement going down okay on the doorstep at the weekend. One said backbenchers were more “sanguine” about it, but admitted tomorrow could re-ignite the row.
Erm … what? Backbenchers Playbook PM spoke to weren’t so sure. “That’s not my experience,” one said about doorstep conversations. “If colleagues are more sanguine it’s because they’ve had phone calls from their whips.”
What the government would rather frame the spring statement around: Jones also told frontbenchers in their briefing that government investment in public services so far has been bearing fruit and argued there is more to do. But he insisted there would be no tweaks to the restrictive fiscal rules, because not looking like Liz Truss etc (and not giving the Tories another decade-and-a-half of free hits about Labour’s economic competence) is important. Aides said the reception in the room was positive.
What else the government would rather frame the spring statement around: As well as announcing new growth-focused affordable and social housebuilding this morning (the spin around which is still being debated between reporters and the government) ministers also revealed planning permission has been granted for the Lower Thames Crossing — a tunnel east of London aimed at easing pressure on the Dartford Crossing. It’s no surprise, since Rachel Reeves backed the project two months ago as part of her drive for growth. But it’s another step closer to realizing a scheme that has been in discussion for 25 years and cost around £300 million without a single spade touching the ground.
Good times, bad times: Labour MP for Dartford Jim Dickson said the approval would “finally deliver a solution to the traffic chaos.” But there are still numerous unanswered questions. The government doesn’t know how it will finance the build, with options including all public cash or finding some kind of private finance on the table. National Highways reckons it could cost up to £9 billion, but we all know these things have a tendency to double … or triple … or quadruple … ad infinitum. Downing Street said there were no updates on funding when Playbook PM asked whether £9 billion would actually be the cost limit.
But still: It will be good to get something built. Maybe.
The official line: “This demonstrates this government’s commitment to delivering the vital infrastructure the country needs to succeed, and to be on the side of the builders, not the blockers,” a government official said. This is the framing ministers want ahead of the spring statement tomorrow.
The problem is … on the other side of the growth ledger, there could be no more British-made cars to drive through the tunnel, if Donald Trump follows through on his threat to slap the U.K. (and the rest of the world) with tariffs on all goods entering the U.S. in April.
Indeed: The biggest U.K. export to the U.S. is cars, worth some £8.3 billion and 14 percent of all British exports entering America. Playbook PM hears the car industry is engaging with the government about the looming bloodbath, although ministers are of course angling to sign some kind of trade deal with the White House to mitigate these new duties as well as those on steel and aluminum already in place.
That last bit is important: The U.S. ignored the pleas to spare Britain on the metals tariffs, so there’s a fair chance the same happens this time. And all hell could break loose if so. One government insider said MPs hadn’t clocked that “beyond tomorrow there is this big looming cliff edge.” If there’s no postponement or deal, expect businesses to ask the government for support grants for those facing serious trouble and job losses.
The good news for Trump is … despite threatening to cripple the British economy just when Rachel Reeves needs every penny going, ministers are too scared of angering him to criticize the White House on, well … anything.
We ain’t going there: Downing Street was at pains to avoid commenting on the wild revelation that top White House officials and the vice president chatted about Houthi airstrikes on messaging app Signal, in full view of a journalist who was added to the chat by accident. A spokesperson for Keir Starmer insisted the government is confident British intelligence sent across the pond is nice and safe. “The U.S. is our closest ally when it comes to matters of intelligence and defence,” the spokesperson said. Armed Forces Minister Luke Pollard said similar during a hearing at the defense committee.
Dancing on the head of a pin: Hacks at lobby had a good go at pressing the PM’s spokesperson on whether Signal is used to discuss sensitive and confidential government info over here. “When it comes to external platforms like Signal or WhatsApp or any electronic communications, there are strict rules in place around the management of those platforms,” the spokesperson said. “When it comes to classified, secure information, there are appropriate, secure systems in use within government for communicating information at that level.” All cleared up.
Who would have thought Angie would be so excellent at sticking to a line? Deputy PM Angela Rayner avoided the temptation to take a pop at the farcical (but serious) U.S. Signal row — including including the vice president and his pals slagging Europe off — during an appearance on the BBC World at One. Clips here and here. Now can we have a tariff deal, pleeeeeease?
How it’s falling out over in DC: Trump has stood by his national security adviser Mike Waltz despite the debacle, amid speculation he could end up being the fall guy. Our POLITICO colleagues over in the States have tons of coverage on the whole furore.
DRIVETIME DEBRIEF
FRIENDLY FIRE: Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook this morning took aim at Rachel Reeves for accepting Sabrina Carpenter tickets worth an alleged £600. “I don’t personally think it’s appropriate, if I want to go to a concert at the O2, I’ll pay for it,” he told LBC. These two might need to rebuild bridges before getting to housing and trainlines.
Soaking it up: The Tories of course pounced on the comments. “This is an extraordinary slap down of the profligate champagne lifestyle Rachel Reeves’ has been enjoying since becoming chancellor,” said Cabinet Office Minister Mike Wood — who happens to be one of the few Tories who didn’t register a single donation or gift in the previous parliament. It seems the Tories, who clocked up endless standards scandals since 2020 alone, have realized there are few … legs … to … stand … on here.
Nothing to see here: On the World at One this afternoon, Rayner (who happens to be Pennycook’s boss) did a much better job defending the chancellor. She backed the Reeves argument about the donated tickets being needed for security purposes and, asked whether taking VIP freebies is fine as long as it’s all declared, said: “Yeah.”
Although … Rayner faced her own standards problems, insisting to LBC a personal safari was never part of her plans during a trip to Ethiopia (after the Times reported she asked for one.) She can save the safari for if she ever has to go to the Oval Office.
KEEPING THE SHOW ON THE ROAD: Nigel Farage hosts a jamboree in Lincolnshire this evening at 6.30 p.m. to continue the party’s local election momentum. His attention may be diverted by the publication of the KC’s report into former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, which it said found “credible evidence of unlawful harassment” of two women. Lowe denied the allegations in the strongest possible terms in a long X post, stating “there is no evidence of any bullying, because there was none. No bullying, no aggressive behavior, no violent threats,” and that the row had put his team “through hell.”
Heckling away: Farage’s ambition for a more successful start to his Tuesday by announcing businessman Alexander Jones as Reform UK’s candidate for the Doncaster mayoralty was thwarted when an array of protestors kept interrupting his speech. Leftie group Stand Up To Racism claimed to be behind the protests — with Farage blaming the education system for shaping their views.
STILL TO COME: Possible votes on Labour MP amendments to the Great British Energy Bill aimed at firming up mechanisms to prevent public cash going to firms benefitting from Chinese slave labor. The government insists it has measures in place to vet solar and wind companies winning public contracts to ensure their supply chains do not involve forced labor — but Alex Sobel and Sarah Champion argue their amendments are needed because current mechanisms aren’t strong enough. Votes on Lords amendments and tweaks to Lords amendments should happen in the next 90 minutes or so — if pushed to votes. Negotiations with ministers are ongoing.
TOUGH BUT IMPORTANT WATCH: ITV News filmed Safeguarding Minister Jess Philips this morning meeting the families of women who have died by suicide after sustained domestic abuse. Phillips told them Keir Starmer is the “greatest ally in this fight.” Watch the package on their news bulletin at 6.30 p.m.
GREAT LOOK: A Labour peer is the freeholder of a 122-flat development in Ilford where ground rent (a charge that has zero purpose) increases by RPI every five years, making it difficult to sell the homes. Fran Ivens has the story in the Telegraph.
SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS
TECH AT ITS ABSOLUTE WORST: Science Secretary Peter Kyle sat down with the Internet Watch Foundation to see the horrifying images tech companies have to remove. “It’s something that’s completely alien to comprehend,” Kyle said. Well worth watching to see how vile this stuff is.
HOLDING THE LINE: Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander took on Mail sketch writer Quentin Letts’ claim she’d suit working at a call center by highlighting her time temping at one before walking out after two days due to appalling management. “I decided working for a company which told its call handlers to transfer tricky calls to the stationery department wasn’t for me.”
**With the pressure building to hit clean energy and net zero targets, there's never been a more crucial time for policymakers, industry leaders, and the public to stay up-to-date on the future of energy. To help you stay on track, you can register for a free trial of our Energy & Climate U.K. newsletter from Mar. 27 - 29. Sign up here**
BEYOND THE M25
UKRAINE UPDATE: Donald Trump’s White House announced it has reached separate agreements with Russia and Ukraine to allow for “safe navigation” in the Black Sea. The administration, in two statements, said technical-level talks between U.S., Russian and Ukrainian officials in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, resulted in agreements to “ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.” More from my U.S. colleagues.
NO PEACE IS BETTER THAN A BAD PEACE: Lithuanian Defence Minister Dovilė Šakalienė warned a “bad peace deal” in Ukraine could help Russia mount a “full scale military invasion” into Baltic countries such as Lithuania within the next decade. She told POLITICO Westminster Insider’s Sascha O’Sullivan this afternoon that if Russian soldiers invade Lithuania “this is going to be rape, torture, murder and you have to do everything to protect your home.” Šakalienė, who met with Defence Secretary John Healey today, said European countries must “carry their own weight.” Listen out for the full interview when the podcast drops Friday.
IN THE ISLE OF MAN: A bill legalizing assisted dying on the Isle of Man passed its final parliamentary hurdle before royal assent. It will make the island the first place in the British Isles where assisted dying is accessible. Only adults who’ve been on the island for five years and have a terminal illness with a life expectancy of under a year would be eligible. Sky has a writeup.
MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israeli authorities released Oscar-winning Palestinian director Hamdan Ballal, who was detained by the army after settlers attacked him in the occupied West Bank. AP has more.
IN SUDAN: A Sudanese war monitor accused the military of killing hundreds of people in an airstrike on the Tur’rah market in the western Darfur region. The military denied targeting civilians. The BBC has the rundown.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Tonight over, 164,000 children will go to bed in temporary accommodation. They will face real consequences over the course of their lives such as poorer health, lower wages and fewer opportunities. At Lloyds Banking Group, we are continuing to champion social housing and that’s why we have supported £19.5 billion in funding to the sector since 2018. We are going further – converting decommissioned data centers and former office sites into social housing, providing £200 million of funding for local projects, and working with the Government to unlock investment. Together with Crisis, we are calling for one million more homes at social rent over the next decade. Find out what's ahead.**
TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND
LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) looks at a National Crime Agency report … BBC News at Six focuses on the U.S. accidentally sharing intelligence with a journalist on Signal … as does Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) which has an interview with Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner … ITV Evening News (6.30 p.m.) leads on domestic abuse statistics.
Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Angela Rayner (5 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Save Ukraine founder Mykola Kuleba … former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John E. Herbst … German Die Linke politician Clara Bünger … former U.S. National Security Council Senior Director for Russia Eric Green … LinkedIn’s Janine Chamberlin … commentator Tim Montgomerie and the New Statesman’s Rachel Cunliffe (both 6 p.m.).
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Former U.S. Army Europe Commanding General Ben Hodges.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Former U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton (5.05 p.m.) … former U.S. Department of State Spokesperson Ned Price (5.30 p.m.) … former U.K. Ambassador to the U.S. Kim Darroch (6.30 p.m.).
The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Writer Jack Thorne.
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Former Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven … former U.K. National Security Adviser Peter Ricketts.
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Former Labour adviser Matthew Torbitt … former Tory PPC Alex Deane.
GBN Tonight (GB News, 7 p.m.): Former Tory MPs Ranil Jayawardena and Tom Pursglove … former Lib Dem adviser Jo Phillips.
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Home Office Minister Jess Phillips … former Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn … independent MP Rosie Duffield … former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Labour MP Richard Burgon … Shadow Foreign Office Minister Wendy Morton … former Scottish Labour Leader Kezia Dugdale … APCO Worldwide’s Jo Tanner.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Tory peer Colin Moynihan.
Patrick Christys Tonight (GB News, 9 p.m.): Former Tory SpAd Leon Emirali.
Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Labour MP Clive Lewis … Shadow Housing Minister Kevin Hollinrake.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: George Mann.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Journo Alicia Fitzgerald and Talk’s Peter Cardwell … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Mirror’s Kevin Maguire and LBC’s Ali Miraj.
WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT
WONKING WITH WES: Health Secretary Wes Streeting chats about his plans to turn around the NHS in conversation with the Guardian’s Pol Ed Pippa Crerar from 7 p.m.
TOMORROW’S WORLD
HAPPENING OVERNIGHT: The public accounts committee has a report out about artificial intelligence in government.
KICKING OFF SPRING STATEMENT DAY:Consumer price inflation data for February is released at 7 a.m.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Tackling fraud … and the spring statement.
CHIEF ACCOUNTANT: National Audit Office boss Gareth Davies is quizzed by the public accounts commission from 10.15 a.m.
BETSA ON: Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Mariana Betsa appears at the Lords international relations and defence committee from 10.30 a.m.
Meanwhile … defense chiefs from around the world continue peacekeeping planning sessions at Northwood HQ.
HEALTH CHECK: NHS Confederation Chief Executive Matthew Taylor is among those facing the health and social care committee about the death of NHS England, from 10.45 a.m.
SIGNED, SEALED, DELIVERED: The Cabinet is expected to meet and approve the spring statement late morning.
IN THE COMMONS: MPs sit from 11.30 a.m. with DSIT questions, before PMQs then the spring statement at 12.30 a.m. After all that it’s the remaining stages of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill.
CUTTING THROUGH THE SPIN: Office for Budget Responsibility Chair Richard Hughes holds a press conference at the Institute for Government offices to explain what is actually going on with the public finances, from 2.30 p.m.
NERVES OF STEEL: Industry Minister Sarah Jones and Defence Minister Maria Eagle are probed by the business and trade committee about the U.K. industrial strategy, from 4 p.m.
TO ROUND THINGS OFF: Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to host a press conference to cap off her spring statement messaging.
ANY OTHER BUSINESS
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Roast chicken with pesto pasta, rocket and cherry tomatoes; lentil, chickpea and cannellini bean chili with rice; sea bass with potatoes, roast fennel and spinach … The Debate: Chinese pork belly burger with Asian salad; scotch bonnet cod with pickled carrots, red onion, plantain and pepper rice; cauliflower, pea and potato samosa with makhani sauce … Terrace Cafeteria: Chicken, leek and mushroom fricassee with rice; macaroni cheese with roasted tomatoes; lemon sole goujons with tartare and lemon … River Restaurant: Tandoori coley with curried spinach and butternut squash jalfrezi; roast chicken with all the trimmings; sweet potato veggie chili with sour cream, guacamole and nachos.
SPOTTED: Attorney General Richard Hermer and Middle East Minister Hamish Falconer sipping coffee and nibbling pastries at Nostos on Orchard Place, Westminster.
NEW GIG: The Telegraph’s Madeline Grant is joining the Spectator to write parliamentary sketches and features.
NEW GIG II: Former Irish PM Leo Varadkar has taken a job with U.S.-based PR firm Penta.
SO LONG, FAREWELL: Numerous government departments have set up redundancy schemes, after Labour pledged to reduce headcount and costs in Whitehall, according to Alex Rogers from Sky News. Departees shouldn’t bother training to become accountants in the new AI era, according to former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. He told the Jimmy’s Jobs of the Future podcast he would “steer people away from accountancy because computers are going to be able to do a huge amount of the work that’s currently done by accountants.”
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On 25 March, 1807 the Conservative administration led by Prime Minister William Grenville passed the Slave Trade Act prohibiting the slave trade in the British Empire. On the same date in 2012, Conservative treasurer Peter Cruddas resigned amid a cash for access sting.
WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: Former U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton writes for Prospect magazine about how European leaders could overcorrect their relationship with the U.S. because of Donald Trump’s behavior. “Such changes, once made, will prove far harder to reverse than Trump’s antics, however destructive and unnecessary,” he wrote.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Stefan Boscia.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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