The Fantasy Premier League (FPL) community can often be ruthless.
In early March, Mohamed Salah (£13.7m) emphatically broke the game’s all-time points record, but a couple of quiet performances in other competitions, plus the reemergence of Erling Haaland (£14.8m), have managers wondering if the Egyptian King could actually be a calculated sacrifice.
Indeed, he’s already dropped in price since his last league outing.
Let’s look at both sides of this dilemma.
RECORD-BREAKER
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On 306 points when no one else has yet reached 200, Gameweek 28 saw Salah break his own FPL record with nine matches still to play.
A jaw-dropping 27 goals and 17 assists are in the bag, meaning he’s delivered 17 double-digit hauls in 29 outings. Last season, nobody had more than 10 of them, or 11 in the two before that. Only four Salah occasions have ended with a blank.
Under the bonnet, we see that the 32-year-old is also the league’s best for shots (106), penalty area touches (313), creating big chances (21) and racking up expected goal involvement (xGI, 29.16).
The numbers are stunning.
ARE LIVERPOOL TIRED?
Although it should be noted that Salah is overachieving that xGI to an insane level (+14.84). The non-penalty number (NPxGI) too, where 35 returns should instead be 22.06.
A bigger question should perhaps be about Liverpool as a team.
League results aren’t weakening, but things have faltered since their last one almost three weeks ago. Even that afternoon saw the Reds 1-0 down by half-time, at home to last-placed Southampton. A pair of Salah penalties turned it around, naturally.
But surrounding that were two humbling meetings with Paris Saint-Germain. The first leg brought Liverpool a 1-0 win despite being outdone 27-2 in shots. Neither from Salah, though he had four in the second leg, where Arne Slot’s side were okay but could only get two of 19 shots on target.
Days after this Champions League elimination came a shock Wembley defeat in the EFL Cup final. Newcastle United successfully nullified Salah into having 0.00 xGI and fully deserved the victory.
Perhaps a small part of the lull is Ramadan-related, as fasting impacts energy levels. But Salah and Ibrahima Konate (£5.2m) will be out of it by Gameweek 30.
UPCOMING FIXTURES
Of course, Liverpool are still set to comfortably win their second Premier League trophy. Over everyone’s latest six matches, Salah comes first for points (68), second for xGI (5.11) and joint-second when creating chances (17).
However, he’s not near the top for shots (16) or NPxGI (2.75), as his five double-digit scores in seven games have included four successful penalties. That rate is hard to sustain.
Looking to bounce back in style, Liverpool are 12 points ahead of Arsenal after the same number of matches. They should secure the title around Gameweek 34 or 35.
That means Salah and his teammates will likely remain competitive during Gameweek 33. It’s a moment when FPL managers will be stacking up on Double Gameweek players but covering the Reds’ attractive trip to Leicester City could be just as essential.
Furthermore, at the time of writing, they’re one of just eight teams definitely featuring in Blank Gameweek 34. Another occasion to own Salah for, especially when you remember that Tottenham Hotspur were festive victims of his huge 21-point score.
Maybe a post-title-winning sale makes more sense. But Liverpool are out of all other competitions, there’s nothing else to play for, so Salah may as well keep starting and keep scoring. He’ll be trying to beat his 32 goals of 2017/18, then Haaland’s Premier League record of 36. Players love doing that.
CAPTAINCY
Plotting future captaincies is a big factor when deciding what to do with Salah.
Putting his fixtures side-by-side with other notable armband contenders – including Bukayo Saka (£10.2m), on the verge of hamstring recovery – can help determine the attacker’s fate.
Is Salah essential for the final FPL Gameweeks?
For example, those with Haaland will probably go against Salah’s high effective ownership (EO) and captain him at home to Leicester in Gameweek 30.
Then, when Salah has a Gameweek 31 trip to Fulham, it’s Alexander Isak‘s (£9.3m) turn to face the Foxes. Newcastle’s forward follows this with two Gameweek 32 encounters.
Salah gets his go at Ruud van Nistelrooy’s struggling team on Easter Sunday, yet that’s when other players have Double Gameweek 33. By the way, poor Leicester!
Perhaps Gameweek 34 is the time to captain Salah – either him or Isak – but this graphic shows that it’s very possible to go without the former Roma man.
USING THE SALAH MONEY
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For such a high price tag, non-captaining managers will think that money can do better things. It’s not just about whether Liverpool will still be motivated after lifting the trophy.
Despite that idea, we’re seeing bigger problems with other premium names. Cole Palmer (£10.8m) missed Gameweek 29 with a muscle injury and has only one return from the previous seven matches.
Saka isn’t quite back, Son Heung-min (£9.7m) is being kept for the Europa League and we’re not sure when or if Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.4m) recovers from his ankle issue. Where does the money go?
Simply put, it’s not too difficult to afford all of Salah, Haaland and Isak. This stage of the season is about balancing a safe coverage of high-EO assets with a few plunges on the right differential risks.
Such a season means Salah is in almost all active FPL squads – he’s too deep into the template EO quicksand. The punts can potentially go alongside him instead.
FINAL THOUGHTS
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League form isn’t dropping for the Liverpool talisman, while short-term fixtures look good.
There might be a question to ask once the league gets wrapped up, but Slot’s lot aren’t in any extra competitions. With a high-profile contract stand-off, Salah can play out of his skin to either leave on a high or force a new deal to be thrashed out.
Affording both him and Haaland is fine, though managers needing to skyrocket up rankings and mini-leagues should note that the Egyptian will rarely be FPL’s favoured captain.
Otherwise, Salah might be too risky to go without and it might be better to look elsewhere for opportunities.
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