Russia and Ukraine may determine there is greater incentive to continuing their war than quickly agreeing to a full settlement, according to an assessment by the U.S. intelligence community that contradicts President Donald Trump's vow for a swift end to the conflict, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.
The U.S. intelligence community also sees a risk that Russian President Vladimir Putin may use nuclear weapons, with the assessment stating: "Russia's inability to achieve quick and decisive battlefield wins, coupled with Ukrainian strikes within Russia, continues to drive concerns that Putin might use nuclear weapons."
Although both nations have conveyed readiness for partial ceasefires, "Leaders for now probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement," according to Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's latest unclassified assessment published Tuesday.
The intelligence assessment was given on Tuesday at the Senate Intelligence Committee's hearing on the annual Worldwide Threat report, where Gabbard and CIA Director John Ratcliffe testified.
Trump administration officials are seeking to reach a full ceasefire as soon as April 20, Bloomberg reported previously, but Ukrainian and European officials have said that is overly optimistic due to Putin's actions that appear to be aimed at prolonging the negotiations.
According to the White House, Moscow and Kyiv agreed Tuesday on partial ceasefires to protect civilian navigation in the Black Sea and to "develop measures" to ban strikes against energy facilities in both of their countries.
But for Putin, "positive battlefield trends allow for some strategic patience, and for Ukraine, conceding territory or neutrality to Russia without substantial security guarantees from the West could prompt domestic backlash and future insecurity," according to the annual intelligence assessment.
However, Putin probably understands that a protracted conflict could drag down the Russian economy and risks "undesired escalation with the West," while Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy likely understands that the future of western assistance is uncertain, the report found.
In addition, Moscow also retains the momentum on the battlefield as a war of attrition is to Russia's military advantages and "will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyiv's position on the battlefield, regardless of any U.S. or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow."
Brian Freeman ✉
Brian Freeman, a Newsmax writer based in Israel, has more than three decades writing and editing about culture and politics for newspapers, online and television.
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