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Roundtable: what future for the 49th Parallel?

**Stéphane Beaulac:** There's a dramatic shift happening—absolutely monumental—in Canada’s military realignment away from our immediate neighbor and toward Europe. It’s huge! The new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, immediately traveled to Europe to discuss this.

As we approach the election, I believe the strained relations between Canada and the U.S. will become a major campaign issue—not just the president’s daily outbursts, but the broader implications.

**David Grondin:** One positive outcome of Trump’s approach toward Canada is that it has forced us to reconsider our alliances. For a long time, we’ve been viewed as a freeloader, benefiting from our privileged relationship with the U.S. for security and defence.

Now we have the opportunity to diversify and strengthen our ties elsewhere, particularly with the European Union. In a way, that's the  silver lining to an otherwise unfortunate situation: in the end, reducing our dependence on the U.S. is beneficial.

During the election, Carney will capitalize on a resurgence of Canadian nationalism—even in Quebec—against the U.S., which will work in his favour. Ironically, Trump may end up satisfied with this posture, as he always finds ways to present himself as a winner. In six months, if things stabilize, he may even claim victory in the situation with Canada. We’ll see.

**Karine Côté-Boucher:** For my part, I agree with emerging sociological and economic anthropology analyses showing a shift towards mercantilist policies on both sides of the border. This significantly affects how borders are controlled and perceived in relation to our main trading partner.

We are reorganizing how we administer our border. Over the past 25 years, our perception of it has evolved—from a simple passageway for trade to a checkpoint of national security. Our border agents are now trained accordingly.

However, if we want them to return to being economic regulators rather than law enforcement officers, a major mindset shift will be required. Border priorities will shift from policing the trafficking of fentanyl and migrants to regulating trade.

**Stéphane Beaulac:** Indeed, this is also a major challenge in Europe,  post-Brexit. At the borders between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, or between the UK and continental Europe, new and complex trade regulations are being developed. These Brexit-related border challenges resemble those we now face in Canada under Trump’s policies.

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