U.S., Russia and Ukraine issued their own statements separately, indicating that they all have their own internal needs at the Riyadh talks, and there is still a long way to go for a real Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, experts told CGTN on Wednesday.
"U.S. President Donald Trump wants to end this matter that happened during the former President Joe Biden's term as soon as possible to reduce the U.S. investment in this matter and reduce the burden on Americans. While, Russia's demands are certainly not a simple ceasefire. Russia not only wants to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but also wants to solve the problems of NATO's eastward expansion and the post-war order in Europe," said Wang Yiwei, a professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China.
Their demands are different, and his statements are also different," Wang added.
Three days of technical-level negotiations on the details of a potential ceasefire in Ukraine concluded here on Tuesday without an official joint statement, as participating parties offered somewhat conflicting assessments of the talks.
The intense parallel interactions between the U.S. and delegations from Ukraine and Russia, including a 12-hour one between the U.S. and Russia on Monday, and two shorter rounds between the U.S. and Ukraine on Sunday and Tuesday, came as fighting on the battlefield remains intense.
Although Washington signaled on Tuesday its willingness to continue facilitating negotiations between the warring parties, analysts remain skeptical about the prospects of such a diplomatic push, citing deep-seated distrust, conflicting demands among stakeholders and the inherent complexities of the process.
"The fundamental cause of the current deadlock lies in America's biased approach to mediation – one that failed to address the concerns of both Russia and Ukraine, ignored the stakes of other affected parties, and underestimated the historical intricacies and complexity of the Ukraine crisis," Kang Jie, an associate research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, told CGTN.
The U.S. mistakenly believed it could hastily broker a ceasefire through a great-power deal that treated smaller nations' interests as bargaining chips, epitomizing the adage: "Haste breeds failure," Kang said.
The ceasefire in the Ukraine crisis marks merely the "beginning of the end," while substantive negotiations for a lasting agreement remain nowhere in sight, Kang said, adding that only when all direct parties and stakeholders are integrated into the negotiation process can there be progress toward a durable agreement that balances competing interests.
**Conflicting assessments**
On Tuesday, hours after the U.S. and Ukrainian delegations concluded their second round of talks, the White House issued separate statements elaborating on its understanding of the parallel meetings.
It stated that the U.S. had agreed separately with Russia and Ukraine to "ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea," and to develop measures for implementing the presidents' agreement to "ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine."
The U.S., with Russia and Ukraine respectively, also "welcomes the good offices of third countries with a view toward supporting the implementation of the energy and maritime agreements" and "will continue working toward achieving a durable and lasting peace," the statement added.
Among the outcomes of the U.S.-Russia talks, the U.S. pledged to help restore Russia's access to the global market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, reduce maritime insurance costs, and improve access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.
In the U.S.-Ukraine talks, both sides reaffirmed the United States' commitment to facilitating the exchange of prisoners of war, securing the release of civilian detainees, and ensuring the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin stated on Tuesday that Russia and the U.S. had agreed to ensure the implementation of the Black Sea Initiative, contingent on the easing of sanctions on Russia's agricultural and food trade.
Russia also stipulated the removal of restrictions on its food and fertilizer producers and exporters, the servicing of related Russian-flagged vessels in ports and the supply of agricultural machinery to Russia, according to the Kremlin.
**A long road to a real ceasefire**
"The U.S. issued a statement immediately showing that it is very eager to show its mediation achievements. The Russian side did not issue a statement at the first time, which indicates that the two sides have not yet reached a complete agreement on the specific method of partially lifting sanctions. Russia hopes to continue to put pressure on the U.S. in this way," Kang said.
The Black Sea is no longer a major strategic direction for both Russia and Ukraine, so there is a common interest in reaching a compromise, Kang said, adding that however, this compromise is also fragile at present.
"For example, there may be differences in the definition of military operations in the Black Sea region between the two sides, how to ensure a ceasefire, and how to define the responsibility for breaking the ceasefire," Kang noted.
"In fact, there are still many specific issues. Now Russia and Ukraine cannot negotiate directly. I think it is difficult to achieve a real ceasefire by relying on the United States to pass messages in the middle," said Cui Hongjian, a professor at the China Institute of International Studies.
The U.S. should try its best to promote Russia and Ukraine to solve the problem in a pragmatic manner, and it is best for the two sides to negotiate face to face, said the expert. "As the United States itself has insufficient credibility, I think the final goal is actually difficult to achieve by this kind of so-called U.S. brokered parallel bilateral negotiations."
"Besides, the mutual trust between Russia and Ukraine is far from enough. Now they are holding talks and fighting at the same time, which shows that both sides are actually just acting for the United States to a certain extent. This also shows that negotiations will not produce the expected results," Cui added.
If they want to reach a consensus as soon as possible, the first thing is to take the initiative to reduce military confrontation. That is, both sides should have a common will, just like what the United States said to really began to turn to a peaceful solution, Cui said. "I think that many times now, both sides may only say this to the United States, and they don't really want to put it into practice."
"The second is that both sides should take some other measures as soon as possible. The United States cannot be relied upon solely to lead the negotiations. The Russia and Ukraine should give full play to their subjective initiative," Cui said.
Take the external factor as an example, such as Europe, it should also play a positive role in the process, instead of passively standing on the side of Ukraine like it is now, continuing to support the conflict and so on, the expert said, noting that "Russia and Ukraine are still very far away from a true ceasefire."