The US predicts that the situation in Gaza, as well as the dynamics between Israel-Hezbollah and Israel-Iran, will remain volatile, according to the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, published on Wednesday.
The 31-page report dedicates sections to threats from Iran and Islamist terror, as well other threats such as Russia, China and North Korea.
According to the threat assessment relating to the Israel-Hamas War, the US believes "even in degraded form, Hamas continues to pose a threat to Israeli security."
"The group retains thousands of fighters and much of its underground infrastructure, and probably has used the ceasefire to reinforce and resupply its military and munitions stock so that it can fight again."
The report notes that Hamas has the ability to resume "low-level guerilla resistance and to remain the dominant political action in Gaza for the foreseeable future."
A FAMILY displaced to the southern part of the Gaza Strip sets out to return home in January after a Hamas-Israel ceasefire was reached. Even amid Gaza’s destruction, Hamas celebrated the return of displaced civilians to northern Gaza as a nationalist victory, says the writer. (credit: Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters)
A FAMILY displaced to the southern part of the Gaza Strip sets out to return home in January after a Hamas-Israel ceasefire was reached. Even amid Gaza’s destruction, Hamas celebrated the return of displaced civilians to northern Gaza as a nationalist victory, says the writer. (credit: Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters)
The assessment states that there are "low expectations on all sides that a ceasefire will endure," adding that "the absence of a credible postfighting political and reconstruction plan portend years of instability."
Israeli-Palestinian conflict
Interestingly, the report notes a decline in support for Hamas among Gazan civilians but a consistently high level of support among Palestinians in the West Bank, especially relative to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
"The long-term Israeli-Palestinian relationship also hinges on the trajectory of an increasingly unstable WestBank," the report continues. "The PA’s weak and declining ability to provide security and other services in the West Bank, Israeli operations in the West Bank, violence from Israeli settlers and Palestinian militant groups including Hamas, and a potential leadership transition in the PA are likely to exacerbate governance challenges in Ramallah."
The future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict hinges significantly on how Israel deals with post-conflict Gaza, the report continues.
Threat from Iran, proxies
Iran also poses a significant threat, the report states, adding that the impact of the Islamic Republic is felt in the US and not just in Israel and the Middle East.
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"During the Gaza conflict, Iran encouraged and enabled its various proxies and partners to conduct strikes against Israeli and at times US forces and interests in the region."
The assessment considers Iran's proxies as key elements of the overall threat, noting the role of the Houthis, Iraqi Shia militias, and Hezbollah in inflaming regional tensions.
"The Houthis have emerged as the most aggressive actor, attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean, US and European forces, and Israel. Iraqi Shia militias continue to try to compel a US withdrawal from Iraq through political pressure on the Iraqi government and attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria."
"Further fighting between Hezbollah and Israel would threaten Lebanon’s fragile stability and any political progress begun by the election of a president in January after years of trying. A resumption of protracted Israeli operations in Lebanon could trigger a sharp rise in sectarian tension, undermine Lebanese security forces, and dramatically worsen humanitarian conditions."
The assessment notes that, while weakened, Hezbollah "maintains the capability to target US persons and interests in the region, worldwide, and—to a lesser extent—in the United States."