The Houston Texans have had one of the more interesting off-seasons of any team in the NFL, and one of the most interesting in team history, for sure. The Laremy Tunsil trade, in which the Texans sent the five time Pro Bowl tackle to the Commanders for four draft picks, has been very polarizing, with Houstonians largely loving it, and pundits outside of Houston wondering why a team would trade its best pass protector after a season where C.J. Stroud was sacked 52 times.
With that trade being, by far, the most high profile move the Texans made over the last couple weeks, it's no surprise that it's hard to find a national expert who grades the Texans' offseason anywhere above a C or C+. Several have them in the D and F range, citing the Tunsil trade as the main reason.
Despite the criticism of how they've handled their roster construction this March, the Houston Texans remain a prohibitive favorite to win the AFC South. The post-free agency odds were posted late last week by SportsBetting.ag, and indeed the Texans are one of seven division winners from 2024 to be slotted as the favorite to do it again in 2025.
Here are this season's AFC South odds:
Houston Texans +100
Jacksonville Jaguars +300
Indianapolis Colts +300
Tennessee Titans +800
So basically, the Texans are 50-50 shot to win the division, by their odds. In plain English, the Texans' chances of winning the AFC South are the same as the other three teams combined, an amazing two year turnaround engineered by DeMeco Ryans, Nick Caserio, and the foundational players on the Texans.
If I had to place a bet inside the division, aside from the Texans, it would likely be Jacksonville at 3/1. The Colts' quarterback situation is to shaky right now, with Anthony Richardson battling Daniel Jones for the starting role, and neither guy inspiring confidence. There is zero value with the Titans at 8/1. As for the Jaguars, there is a decent chance new head coach Liam Coen helps Trevor Lawrence figure some things out. Still, I'd bet the Texans, even if weren't a slightly biased fan and Houston media member.
Here are the odds for the other seven divisions, with my non-favorite that I would bet in each division:
AFC East
Buffalo Bills -250
Miami Dolphins +500
New England Patriots +600
New York Jets +1000
AFC EAST UNDERDOG PICK: The Bills are, far and away, the biggest division favorite out of all eight favorites, at -250 to win the division, with the next closest team being the Dolphins at +500. My underdog pick, though, is New England, who upgraded in a big way at head coach with Mike Vrabel, and with Drake Maye showing some promise in his rookie season under center in 2024.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens -125
Cincinnati Bengals +200
Pittsburgh Steelers +500
Cleveland Browns +2200
AFC NORTH UNDERDOG PICK: The most noteworthy thing on this odds board is Cleveland's +2200 number, the longest shot in the league to win a division. Guess that Deshaun Watson trade didn't really work out. I'll take the Steelers at +500 as my underdog pick, better value than the Bengals, who might give up 35 points per game on defense this season.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs -125
Los Angeles Chargers +300
Denver Broncos +350
Las Vegas Raiders +1600
AFC WEST UNDERDOG PICK: Will 2025 be the season that the Chiefs' stranglehold on the division comes to an end? We'll see. The Chargers and Broncos are both coming off playoff berths in 2025, but at +1600, with Pete Carroll as the new head coach and Geno Smith as the new QB, there's more value in the Raiders than either of those other two teams.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles -150
Washington Commanders +200
Dallas Cowboys +700
New York Giants +2000
NFC EAST UNDERDOG PICK: The Giants are a disaster, with no chance to win the division. ZERO chance. As a Houstonian, I can't, in good conscience, bet on the Cowboys, so I'll take the Commanders at +200, I guess.
NFC North
Detroit Lions +125
Green Bay Packers +250
Minnesota Vikings +400
Chicago Bears +400
NFC NORTH UNDERDOG PICK: This is, far and away, the division with the highest floor, with not a single team having longer odds than +400 to win the division; crown. I'll take the Vikings as the best non-favorite value, at +400, even with J.J. McCarthy, and his zero NFL starts, as the Week 1 starter at quarterback.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +100
Atlanta Falcons +200
Carolina Panthers +400
New Orleans Saints +700
NFC SOUTH UNDERDOG PICK: The Buccaneers have the same odds to win the NFC South as the Texans have to win the AFC South. This is a wretched division, but if I have to take a non-Bucs team for a bet, I'll take the potential of the highest payout with the Saints, and their new head coach Kellen Moore getting the best out of Derek Carr.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers +125
Los Angeles Rams +150
Seattle Seahawks +600
Arizona Cardinals +700
NFC WEST UNDERDOG PICK: The Niners are the only divisional betting favorite to have failed to win their division last season. I don't think they should be favored. They're getting love from the betting markets due to their pedigree over the past several seasons. I'll go with the Rams at +150.
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