Argentina’s President Javier Milei faces a critical juncture, as Goldman Sachs urges him to scrap capital and currency controls. Experts insist this step is key to drawing investors and fueling a shaky stock market rally, with markets seeking guarantees of free capital flows.
Since taking office in December 2023, Milei has cut spending, tamed inflation from 230% to 2.4% monthly, and boosted reserves to $30 billion. Progress shows cracks, though. Poverty hit 52.9% in mid-2024 but fell to 36% by year-end, per private data, as wages climbed 167% against 113% inflation.
Foreign investment stays thin, with companies like HSBC pulling out over dollar access woes. Removing the “cepo cambiario” could spark a peso drop, a risk haunting past leaders, yet growth might reach 4% in 2025.
Milei’s reforms stir mixed results. Early austerity deepened a recession, but later stabilization eased living costs, though 50% of kids remain poor and unemployment sits at 8%.
The October 2025 elections will test if voters back his vision, possibly triggering energy IPOs tied to Vaca Muerta’s shale surge. Goldman Sachs spots a difference. Unlike Mauricio Macri’s 2019 flop, today’s public tolerates hard choices for potential gains.
Goldman Sachs Pushes Milei to Free Argentina’s Capital Flows. (Photo Internet reproduction)
Argentina’s Economic Crossroads
No IPOs have launched since 2018, but clarity after the vote could jumpstart deals, especially in dollar-earning energy firms. Risks loom large. Lifting controls might unlock billions for Vaca Muerta’s oil and gas riches or plunge Argentina into chaos again.
Milei aims to pivot from protectionism to exports, yet investors hesitate, needing solid proof of staying power. The numbers tell a raw story. Inflation’s drop and a $20 billion IMF deal hint at recovery, but exits by firms like Mercedes-Benz signal doubts.
Reserves rose from $21 billion in 2023, yet the peso’s black-market gap festers. Milei’s team claims a turning point, with poverty easing and exports up, but the path ahead teeters. Success could reshape Argentina’s economy, failure could rewind it to familiar strife, and the world watches closely.