Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Cardarchive.
March 25 update: Russian gains again slowed—to 73 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about 3 Manhattan islands) in the past month. Meanwhile, in Russia’s Kursk oblast, Ukraine currently controls just 32 square miles, or 4%, of the 470 square miles it controlled in early autumn 2024. U.S.-mediated indirect negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian officials appeared to have produced a preliminary agreement on a Black Sea ceasefire, but Russia’s demands for additional clauses created confusion about when the agreement could come into force.
Who’s Gaining and Who’s Losing What?
Territorial Control (figures as of March 25, 2025)
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Report Card*
Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory.
(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)
Since Feb. 24, 2022:Russia: +27,197 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of New York state).1
Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:Russia: +43,822 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio.)
In past month (Feb. 25–March 25, 2025): Russia gained 73 square miles. Area roughly equivalent to about 3 Manhattan islands.2
In past week: Russia gained 16 square miles, the equivalent of slightly less than 1 Manhattan island.After two weeks of near collapse in Kursk, Ukraine gained 1 square mile of territory there. However, the strategic picture remains effectively unchanged: Ukraine’s armed forces are undertaking a fighting withdrawal, in a continuing effort to impose disproportionate costs on Russian forces seeking to retake control.
Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–February 2025.(Also based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)
Military casualties
Russia: More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate.348,000 missing.
Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate.435,000 missing.
Civilian fatalities
Russia: 387 killed.5
Ukraine: 12,654 killed.
Military vehicles and equipment6
Russia: 20,856 lost.Tanks and armored vehicles: 12,314.
Aircraft: 305.
Naval vessels: 22.7
Ukraine: 8,270 lost.Tanks and armored vehicles: 4,177.
Aircraft: 183.
Naval vessels: 35.8
Citizens displaced
Russia:800,000 left Russia for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
112,000 were displaced in Russia’s Kursk region during Ukraine’s incursion in 2024-2025.
Ukraine: 10.2 million displaced Ukrainians, 23% of Ukrainian pre-invasion population of 44 million.Internally displaced: 3.7 million.
International refugees: 6.5 million.
Economic impact9
Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)1.6% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
Budget deficit in 2024: 1.7% of GDP.
Russian ruble: 0.01182U.S. dollars. No change since invasion.
3-year bond yield: 15.6%.
Ukraine’s economic growth (negative): -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)2.5% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.024 U.S. dollars. -27% since invasion.
3-year bond yield: 23.6%
Infrastructure
Russia: A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2024 that Ukrainian strikes had rendered facilities which accounted for 1/6th of the production of gasoline and diesel fuels in Russia non-operational.
Ukraine: 64%, or 36 out of 56 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied, Ukraine relies for 2/3rdsof its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls.
Popular support
Russia: 59% support peace negotiations.
Ukraine: 51% support peace negotiations.
Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):
Ammunition supply
Foreign military aid
Force generation
Military leadership
Training
Morale
Control of strategic locations
Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.
Footnotes
According to Ukraine’sDeepState OSINT group’s map, as of March 25, 2025, Russian forces occupied 112,453 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (43,418 square miles), which constituted 18.6% of Ukrainian territory, and which is roughly equivalent in area to the U.S. state of Virginia.
In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 189 square kilometers (73 square miles), according to a March 26, 2025 estimate by the Economist.
According to Donald Trump’s January 2025 estimate, 1 million Russian soldiers have been killed.
According to Trump’s January 2025 estimate, 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed.
These are estimates by independent observers cited in Western press. Russian authorities estimated in March 2025 the number of Russian civilians killed in the course of the war to total more than 650.
Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html.
Not being updated as of 2025.
Not being updated as of 2025.
International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,” https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov ; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01.
*This card is being produced by RM staff.
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