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In today’s newsletter:
Belize elections
SICA, Taiwan, Nicaragua
Colombia Finance Minister resigns
Ecopetrol investigation
Peru security emergency
Ecuador debate this weekend
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Belize had an election last week. Prime Minister John Briceño was reelected as the ruling People’s United Party (PUP) won 26 out of 31 seats. Voters are happy enough with Briceño to give him another five years in office thanks to a nice little mini economic boom last year (GDP growth somewhere around 6%). Meanwhile, the opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) was not very united. The divisions in its leadership led to a huge loss and the party leadership has been tossed out post-election.
Nationally, the PUP won about 67% of the votes cast compared to 19% and 10% for the two factions of the UDP.
Here is agood writeup if you want to read more about the campaign.
The current regional trend is that we’re in an anti-incumbent environment unless the governing party dominates the political system against a weak and divided opposition. Belize definitely fits that second category.
One issue to watch is that voter turnout was only 65%, compared to 82% in the 2020 election. That drop in turnout can be explained in part by a relatively uncompetitive campaign (analysts ahead of time were relatively certain the PUP would win). Still, that’s a big drop and the missing votes, people choosing to abstain rather than vote against the party in power, likely added to the government’s win.
The other big winner in this election is Taiwan. Belize is one of the few countries in the world that recognizes the government in Taipei. Taiwan rewards the government with development funds. Briceño is not changing the country’s Taiwan policy anytime soon, giving Taipei a bit of stability in its regional competition with Beijing.
The other place Taiwan is holding on is SICA. The Central American Integration System is an organization where Taipei has a presence and influence and Beijing does not.
Nicaragua is supposed to have the leadership of SICA from 2021-2025. Nicaragua’s top agenda item for SICA is kicking out Taiwan and installing China and Russia as observers. However, given the widespread consensus that Daniel Ortega is an awful human being, the other countries in Central America haverepeatedly rejected the names proposed by Nicaragua to lead SICA. At the same time, not every country in SICA agrees with fully suspending Nicaragua from the organization. This disagreement over how to handle Nicaragua has led to the organization stalling out.
In the past, I’vecriticized Taiwan’s strategy to just maintain bare footholds in Latin America, but at least with this week’s examples of Belize and SICA, that strategy has worked. They are holding on long enough that the region is now seeing a bit more criticism of Beijing starting to form. I don’t think the tide has totally turned against China, but Taiwan is at less risk of being suddenly pushed out than it was two years ago.
Colombia’s minister of financeresigned after only three months on the job. Diego Guevara had pushed for a reduced deficit, arguing that getting Colombia’s fiscal situation under control would be the best way to get long term growth and reduce poverty. President Petro is more concerned with the election that is just a year away. Spending now to boost the economy will give his side more of a fighting chance.
Petro will name Germán Ávila Plaza as his new minister of finance. It will be his fourth minister in that position in three years. Ávila Plaza is no more or less qualified or sensible than Guevara. He’ll play the same role that every Petro finance minister plays: be the voice of reason while the president proposes fiscally irresponsible spending; convince foreign investors that there is an adult in the room.
Meanwhile, Petro is angry that the Congress is blocking his proposed Labor Reform. He continues to threaten a national referendum to push forward his policies, but he’s been threatening the same thing for his whole time in power. With an approval rating in the low to mid-30s, Congress doesn’t take the threats seriously because they don’t think the president could win a national referendum right now. In fact, while people are aware of the uncertainty and risks that the referendum would bring, the general consensus is that it would more likely than not backfire on Petro.
In separate Colombia news,BBC has a big whistleblower report on pollution caused by Ecopetrol. Beyond the horrifying pollution parts of the story (*there is a dead baby manatee!*😢), the report also highlights the overlaps between private security firms and illegal paramilitary groups. Colombia is one of the countries with the highest numbers of environmental defenders at risk of threats and death. The report alleges (a very credible allegation in my view) that Ecopetrol engaged with security firms and paramilitary groups that threatened the environmental defenders.
The largest portion of these allegations precede Petro’s time in office, though there are also some abuses that overlap with his term. Petro came into office as a strict defender of the environment and has undermined Ecopetrol as he has rolled back Colombia’s fossil fuel and mining industries. With only a year left, many analysts are hopeful that the next president will get Ecopetrol back on track. Reports like this could push Petro to further restrict future Ecopetrol activity in ways that go beyond his term. And given how ugly the information in this report is, he wouldn’t be unjustified in doing so.
Peru’s governmentannounced a state of emergency in Lima after a surge of gang violence over the weekend. A singer was killed in an attack on the band’s tour bus and an explosion at a restaurant left 11 injured.
While homicides in Peru remain lower than in Colombia, Ecuador or Brazil, the numbers have increased rapidly. Extortions and violent robberies have also increased.Polling last year showed that people feel threatened and that many people have been the recent victim of a violent crime.
Peru’s Congressplans a vote of no-confidence against the minister of interior this week to demonstrate their anger at the government’s lack of action on crime. There is also aninvestigation into Peru’s minister of interior over a corruption scandal1, leading the government to blame prosecutors for the political attacks that hold back their efforts to stop crime.
Peruvians hate both the current executive branch and Congress. Nobody is going to win that fight. But this new round of gang attacks is going to drive the 2026 election towards a security populist figure along the lines of a Bukele or Noboa. Presidential candidates will be leaping over each other with hawkish proposals. Someone with a very hardline view is likely to win.
President Daniel Noboa debates Luisa Gonzalez on Sunday. It’s the one debate for the second round and the first time the two have debated since the election in 2023. Polling currently shows Gonzalez with a slim lead and prediction markets are close to a 50-50 split right now between the two candidates.
In the past, Noboa has proven to be great at debates, while Gonzalez is a weak debater. It’s just not her best format. Combine that with the likely publication of a pro-Noboa poll this upcoming weekend or early next week, and that means that many analysts will have Noboa as the favorite again a week from today.
Noboa hascontinued to push a plan to use foreign militaries and mercenaries to combat gangs. As Iwrote a few weeks ago:
Inviting foreign forces could be a winning idea if the public’s security fears override the sovereignty concerns that often dominate debate in Latin American politics. At the same time, by being so open about the policy Noboa is ensuring that voters who enter the polling station less than two months from today will understand that they may be voting in favor of foreign troops entering their country. It’s a big gamble to believe that voters will decide in the president’s favor.
In Sunday’s debate, it won’t be enough for Gonzalez to criticize Noboa’s plan. She needs an alternative plan of her own if she hopes to gain any ground on the president.
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1
To be fair, there are investigations into many of Peru’s politicians. If I name a politician in Peru, they probably face a corruption investigation.