Europe| Adrift
Russia plays for time in Ukraine ceasefire talks
A Black Sea deal starts sinking as soon as America announces it
Apartments buildings in front of Tsemes Bay in Novorossiysk, Russia
Photograph: IMAGO
As american spooks tell it, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky may be willing to talk about ending their war, but they are not ready to stop fighting. “Both leaders for now probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement,” concluded an annual threat assessment by America’s 18 intelligence agencies published on March 25th.
That helps explain why President Donald Trump’s promise to end the war between Russia and Ukraine (within a day, as he used to say) is proving difficult. His officials say they have achieved “epic” results. In fact the deal is being whittled down with each round of shuttle diplomacy. Russia seems intent on imposing conditions at every stage as its forces grind on.
Take the progress thus far. On March 11th America and Ukraine proposed an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire. On March 18th Russia narrowed that to halting aerial attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping in the Black Sea, with details to be worked out. On March 25th America announced an agreement to “ensure safe navigation”, but it was immediately thrown into doubt. Russia insisted it would not be enacted until a Russian state bank was reconnected to the swift payment system. The eu, in turn, said that would not happen until Russia withdrew from Ukraine (SWIFTis based in Belgium).
In any case, the Black Sea deal would alleviate only a minor problem. Western sanctions already exclude Russian exports of food and fertilisers. And Ukraine has already re-opened its maritime trade corridor by fighting back the Russian navy and sending cargo through the territorial waters of friendly states. At best, if the accord prevents attacks on ports, facilities in Mykolaiv, a Ukrainian port, could reopen and insurance rates could fall. Russia might benefit from easier terms for exports.
Ukrainian and European officials worry that America is moving to ease sanctions against Russia without real concessions. A White House statement promised to “help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertiliser exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.”
Kremlin-huggers in Washington seem to have the upper hand. Sticks have been applied mostly to Ukraine, which for a time was cut off from the flow of American weapons and intelligence. Russia is being offered mainly carrots: the Americans speak of recognising its annexation of territory, and denying Ukraine nato membership or security guarantees. Officials are drawing up options to lift sanctions.
In a revealing interview on March 21st Steve Witkoff, America’s envoy for Ukraine, said he sought not just an end to the war but a new geopolitical pact with Russia. It would include co-operation on oil and gas production in the Arctic, exports of liquefied natural gas, artificial intelligence and handling Iran. “Who doesn’t want to see a world like that?” he asked. He mocked European countries for rushing to arm Ukraine and fortify themselves, trying “to be like Winston Churchill”. The fear that Russia would attack the rest of Europe, he claimed, was “preposterous”.
As the talks drag on, Russia seeks to convince Mr Trump to ignore Ukrainian and European concerns and look to a grand bargain. Ukraine, in turn, wants to prove that Russia is negotiating in bad faith, in the hope that Mr Trump might turn against the Kremlin. In an interview with Newsmax TVon March 25th, Mr Trump conceded that Mr Putin may be stalling but seemed unperturbed. “It could be they’re dragging their feet. I’ve done it over the years, you know.” He was confident, though, that both Russia and Ukraine “would like to see it end”.
American officials hope to clinch a ceasefire within Mr Trump’s first 100 days in office. The danger is that a rushed agreement will mean forsaking Ukraine and caving in to Russia. As America’s spies put it, Mr Putin has good reasons to play for time, because “positive battlefield trends allow for some strategic patience”. Mr Zelensky fears a bad deal would “prompt domestic backlash and future insecurity.” ■