Latest Developments
Value Halved Within 8 Months: Iran’s currency collapsed to a record low on March 25. The Iranian rial fell to 1,039,000 against the U.S. dollar, less than half its value in July 2024, when Masoud Pezeshkian became president. The United States has issued four rounds of sanctions on Iran’s oil exports since Trump took office, with little indication that the sanctions regime will be eased.
Iran Spurns Trump’s Offer to Negotiate: In mid-March, President Donald Trump sent a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, announcing a two-month deadline for Tehran to start negotiations to “resolve the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program diplomatically.” So far, Khamenei and other Iranian leaders have signaled that they are unwilling to participate in direct negotiations with the United States. On February 4, the Trump administration reimposed crippling economic sanctions on Iran as part of its “maximum pressure” campaign, with the goal of “denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon, and countering Iran’s malign influence abroad.”
Iranian Intelligence Agents Sanctioned: On March 25, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on three Iranian Ministry of Intelligence (MOI) officials “involved in the abduction, detention, and probable death of former FBI Special Agent Robert A. ‘Bob’ Levinson.” Levinson is believed to have been abducted by Iranian MOI agents in 2007 and is presumed to have died in captivity in 2020. In December 2020, Treasury sanctioned two MOI agents in connection with Levinson’s kidnapping.
FDD Expert Response
“Currency is confidence. The rial’s plunge past 1 million to the dollar sends a clear message: Iranians have lost faith in the regime’s ability to run the economy. If Tehran keeps pouring resources into nukes and terror proxies, it’s not just a currency collapse it’s facing — it’s national ruin.” —Mark Dubowitz, CEO
“The depreciation of the rial in the unofficial market signals that market participants are concerned about further disruptions to the inflow of foreign currency into Iran’s economy due to the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign. This, in turn, contributes to upward inflationary pressures in the near future, potentially forcing the government to draw on its currency reserves to stabilize the market and contain depreciation and inflation.” — Saeed Ghasseminejad, Senior Iran and Financial Economics Advisor
“The Iranian Ministry of Intelligence’s transnational repression, coupled with its assassination and abduction plots in the United States and Europe, underscores its key role in executing the schemes of the leading sponsor of terror: the Islamic Republic. Although the MOI is already a Specially Designated Global Terrorist organization, the United States should also designate it as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.” —Janatan Sayeh, Research Analyst
FDD Background and Analysis
U.S. Levies Sanctions Against Chinese ‘Teapot’ Oil Refineries for Iranian Oil Purchases,” FDD Flash Brief
“Crushing Iran’s oil trade: The path to maximum pressure,” by Mark Dubowitz and Saeed Ghasseminejad
“U.S. Sanctions Should Target Tehran’s Top Economic Operatives,” by Saeed Ghasseminejad
“U.S. Should Impose Sanctions on Iran’s Nascent Lithium Industry,” by Saeed Ghasseminejad
Issues:
Iran Iran Nuclear Iran Politics and Economy