Presented by Lloyds Banking Group
London Playbook
By STEFAN BOSCIA
with BETHANY DAWSON
Good Thursday morning. This is Stefan Boscia.
DRIVING THE DAY
THE MORNING AFTER: Rachel Reeves will try to get on the front foot this morning and contain the fallout from a spring statement that has left the chancellor facing a horror set of front pages and unanswered questions. Namely — how bad will the Labour rebellion be against welfare cuts? And will she have to come back for more tax rises and spending cuts this autumn … especially after the overnight antics of one Donald Trump?
Line ‘em up: After outlining a slashed growth outlook for this year, billions in spending cuts and a bit of optimism thanks to Labour’s housing reforms (Wednesday’s spring statement details were in Playbook PM), Reeves will do a bumper broadcast round this morning to try to make the running. Times Radio will get the first crack at the chancellor at 7.05 a.m., before she goes on to face Sky News at 7.15 a.m., Today at 8.10 a.m. and GMB at 8.30 a.m. Full list below as always.
What she wants to talk about … is the overnight Treasury announcement that unused public land around army bases and railways will be seized to build more than 40,000 new homes (via Sky News). Reeves will also use the broadcast round to hammer home her message that the government is making tough decisions to respond to the disastrous global economic conditions. More on those, uh, conditions shortly.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Right now, over 1.5 million households across the country are on waiting lists for social housing. At Lloyds Banking Group, we are continuing to champion social housing and that’s why we have supported £19.5 billion of funding to the sector since 2018. Find out what’s ahead**
But what they’ll actually ask about … is whether she will rule out future tax hikes, after once again leaving herself very little room for error. Reeves’ spending cuts mean she has £9.9 billion of headroom against her fiscal rules — the same amount that was wiped away by just a few months of rising bond yields after the October budget.
Wonks’ paradise: The Institute for Fiscal Studies will have more to say on this when its boss, Paul Johnson, gives his traditional post-statement briefing this morning. An online stream of the IFS event will go live at 10.30 a.m. here.
Do you feel lucky? The limited headroom means future uncertainty caused by — oh, let’s just take a hypothetical example — a certain erratic world leader could well bump her off course. Many of the papers splash on the prospect of Reeves facing a familiar dilemma at the autumn budget that could force her to cut spending (again), raise taxes (again) or change her fiscal rules (again). Honestly, who would want to be chancellor?
Those front pages in full: “Five years of record taxes” (Telegraph) … “Tax hikes and extra cuts on the way” (the i) … “Tax rise fears cloud Reeves’ fiscal fix” (FT) … “Balancing the books on the backs of the poor” (Mirror) … “Reeves accused of balancing books at expense of the poor” (Guardian) … “Growing pains for Reeves hit home” (Sun) … “Reckless Rachel tanks economy by killing growth” (Express) … “Deluded” (Mail) … “Reeves squeezed by Trump” (Times). And right on cue …
BEHIND THE WHEEL: Here comes that hypothetical example. Donald Trump announced last night he would implement universal 25 percent tariffs on all auto imports into the U.S. from next Wednesday (per POLITICO’s Doug Palmer and Daniel Desrochers). That’s on top of the tariffs that the OBR said would wipe out Reeves’ headroom at a single stroke.
Collision detected: While the U.K. is not an auto superpower like Germany or Japan, the U.S. is still the No. 1 export destination for British automakers. The tariffs will come into place alongside a load of other measures on foreign goods from April 2, which Trump is calling “Liberation Day.”
Dodgems: While European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is already hinting Brussels could announce retaliatory measures on American cars, Britain is very unlikely to do anything of the sort for now. The Times’ splash reports that ministers are hopeful of striking a deal to get a carve-out from at least some of Trump’s tariffs this week; such noises have been rumbling for a few days. One thing now being seriously discussed by U.K. officials is dropping the digital services tax, a bugbear of Trump-supporting Big Tech bosses, as a part of an agreement with the U.S.
Another one to watch: Reeves (who dodged a digital services tax question on Wednesday) will certainly be asked about all this during her broadcast round. We’ll also get to hear from Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds at 11 a.m. when he gives a big speech on trade policy at Chatham House. You could argue the most consequential single decision for Britain’s economy this week will come not from Reeves, but him.
CONCERNS FOR WELFARE: And Reeves will, of course, be asked about the other major plot line to come from Wednesday’s spring statement. The chancellor’s extra benefit cuts, including some drawn up at the last minute, have gone down about as well as you’d expect on the Labour back benches.
Don’t show the MPs this: Playbook has been scanning through dire figures from Torsten Bell’s old buddies in the Resolution Foundation, after its wonks spent the night trawling through the spring statement. The center-left think tank reckons the benefit cuts will actually be worth £8.1 billion by 2029-30 and that lower-income households will now be £500 poorer by the end of parliament. Yowch. Resolution Foundation chief exec Ruth Curtice will speak about the findings with OBR boss Richard Hughes and others at 9 a.m.here.
Worse than VAR: Government officials disagree with the OBR’s assessment that the cuts would raise less than expected, but reckon Reeves had no choice but to find an extra £500 million more of savings from the benefits bill to wiggle the figures into her fiscal target.
Rebel yell:The Guardian’s Heather Stewart and Pippa Crerar reckon around three dozen Labour MPs are preparing to rebel on the welfare changes, which largely focus on restricting disability benefits to get people back to work. That would be nowhere near enough to overturn Keir Starmer’s massive majority, but it would be the largest rebellion of his premiership.
Grim figures: Backbench anger was further inflamed by the OBR’s estimate that welfare cuts would plunge 250,000 people into poverty, including 50,000 children. Ministers believe this figure won’t actually come to fruition because the OBR has not taken into account the people who could end up back in work due to the changes.
But but but: This hasn’t stopped some Labour MPs (including Crewe and Nantwich MP Connor Naismith) using the stark figures to go public with their opposition to the policy. And they may be given more ammunition this morning when the DWP releases its latest poverty figures at 9.30 a.m.
And it’s worth noting … that the OBR findings will make it particularly awkward for the government when it brings forward its child poverty strategy in around June. There’s already a row over whether it’ll do something about the two-child limit on benefits.
Maybe don’t deliver the papers to No. 11 today: It all makes for tough reading for Reeves, especially among traditionally Labour-friendly papers. The Mirror’s Kevin Maguire labeled her a “benefits snatcher” who deserves “no mercy from Labour rebels, union leaders, charities, political opponents and her victims … the Guardian’s leader accused her of bringing back austerity … meanwhile the Telegraph’s Allister Heath, in his typically understated style, wrote that “Britain’s drift to socialism and middle class pauperization continues unabated” … the Times’ leader said “the Treasury has adopted a firefighting, rather than strategic, approach to the economy to appease the OBR” … and the Sun called on the government to use the poor economic figures to ditch net zero and its workers’ rights reforms.
Tough crowd:The Guardian’s Eleni Courea reported that Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones was sent out in front of a group of 30 angry Labour MPs to quell anger about all this on Wednesday. She hears Jones was rewarded for his efforts by … getting a tongue lashing from almost half of those in attendance.
A senior government official told Playbook: “There are always a range of opinions within the PLP, but people can see that the plan is working and that’s what we’ll continue to focus on.”
Left out to dry: Jones caused dismay on Wednesday afternoon when he likened the government’s reforms to taking away pocket money from his children … a statement he apologized for last night on ITV’s Peston (he called the statement “tactless”). But … that was only after Reeves herself had doubled down on the comparison in an interview with LBC’s Iain Dale. Playbook is sure she’ll love having to be asked about it again this morning.
NOW READ THIS: My POLITICO colleagues Esther Webber and Dan Bloom have a piece out this morning on the Starmer-Reeves relationship and whether it could start to fray. They report the PM is now trying to hire a senior economics adviser in what may be a sign No. 10 wants a stronger grip on fiscal policy making.
ACROSS THE CHANNEL
COALITION, ASSEMBLE: Keir Starmer will shortly be welcomed to the Elysée Palace by Emmanuel Macron as the pair convene another meeting of the coalition of the willing. Starmer and Macron will brief 29 other world leaders, including Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on what a Ukraine-based peacekeeping force could look like. A senior government official told Playbook the meeting “is an important part of maintaining the political momentum” behind the Anglo-French plan.
With the top brass: No. 10 said the U.K. hosted more than 200 military planners from across the world this week to assess “the structure of any future force to ensure Ukraine can defend itself from future Russian aggression.” The PM will today update other world leaders on the results of the meetings, before fronting a solo press conference at around 12.50 p.m. Macron and Zelenskyy will also hold press conferences early this afternoon.
To Russia, no love: In a No. 10 release in the last hour (timing which handily pushes the news agenda onwards after the spring statement) the PM attacks Vladimir Putin, saying the Russian president is “not a serious player in these peace talks” and “needs to show he’s willing to play ball.” Putin said this week he would only implement a Ukraine-Russia Black Sea ceasefire if agricultural sanctions were eased on Russia.
Starmer added: “Playing games with the agreed naval ceasefire in the Black Sea despite good faith participation from all sides — all while continuing to inflict devastating attacks on the Ukrainian people. His promises are hollow.”
You don’t say: And it now looks like the White House may finally be coming to that conclusion as well. Bloomberg’s Alberto Nardelli and colleagues report that U.S. officials are growing frustrated with the Kremlin’s negotiating tactics, after they tried to tack on sanctions relief to the ceasefire deal. European officials told the outlet they’re hopeful Trump will soon realize that Putin does not actually want a lasting peace agreement.
Maybe he’ll just go away: Zelenskyy, for his part, is just hoping that Putin will die soon. The Ukrainian president said after a Wednesday night meeting in Paris with Macron that Putin “will die soon, and that’s a fact, and it will come to an end.” The Mail has his quotes in full.
Speaking of going away … The Times’ Larisa Brown reports that Britain has scaled back the size of its military presence in Estonia, despite recent promises to beef up its defenses against Russia. Estonian MEP Riho Terras, a former military officer, told Times Radio that the U.K. was not taking the defense of NATO’s eastern flank seriously. “The U.K. has difficulties to put together one brigade to participate in operations. I see it in Estonia every day,” he said.
TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
PLANET KEMI: Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch will have a one-on-one interview at the Anthropy Conference at 9.30 a.m. today. The interview is being billed as a chat about “the critical challenges facing the nation, her thoughts on building national confidence, the economy, global positioning and alliances.” So … that’s quite broad then.
UNHAPPY CAMPERS: The major changes to the assisted dying bill were pushed through in sponsor Kim Leadbeater’s name by ministers worried that MPs could pass an impractical law that puts more pressure on the NHS and courts, the Guardian’s Jessica Elgot reports. One Cabinet minister told Elgot that “a lot of people are cross about the timing of this. There are huge plates spinning and this is being seen by some as a priority?”
PEACEFUL PRAYER: The Home Office is giving police greater powers to stop “intimidating” protests being staged near places of worship. Police already have the authority to restrict demonstrations under the Public Order Act, but the change will give them a clearer basis to stop disruptive actions near churches, synagogues, mosques and other religious sites. The BBC has a write-up.
CHA-CHING: NatWest and Nigel Farage have settled their debanking dispute, with Farage posting a joint statement on X that the “bank has apologized” to him, although the terms of the settlement are confidential. The Reform UK boss will be attending an on-record Lobby lunch today, where this — and much, much more — will likely come up.
ON THE PLAYLIST: Rachel Reeves told ITV’s Lewis Denison that she accepted free tickets to a private box at a Sabrina Carpenter concert for security reasons, because she couldn’t sit in the crowd with other fans. “I know that for some people, that will look weird. I totally get that,” the chancellor said. “But I do want to carry on doing the things that normal parents do with their kids. And that gave me the opportunity to do that.” She did cave, though, and told Denison her favourite Carpenter song is “Please, Please, Please.”
DESPERATE FOR VIT D: Labour MP Alex Mayer is trying to use her parliamentary powers to cause a “fundamental shake-up of time.” The newbie MP has the adjournment debate on British Summer Time, having previously called for clocks to remain one hour ahead of GMT in winter and two hours ahead of GMT from spring. Nobody tell Peter Hitchens.
THE AGENDA GODS SMILE: Labour peer and former Downing Street chief of staff Sue Gray will make her Lords maiden speech during the second reading of the Employment Rights Bill. Cosmic timing for someone who had a pretty rough 100 days in one of the U.K.’s most important jobs.
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with transport questions … business questions to Leader of the House Lucy Powell … a general debate on St. Patrick’s Day and Northern Irish affairs (led by Labour MP Adam Jogee) … and a general debate on the 10th anniversary of the Modern Slavery Act 2015 (Conservative MP Karen Bradley). Labour MP Alex Mayer has the adjournment debate on the potential merits of double British Summer Time.
WESTMINSTER HALL: Debates from 1.30 p.m. with a debate on prevention of drug deaths (led by DUP MP Jim Shannon) … and on the first anniversary of the Hughes report on valproate and pelvic mesh (Labour MP Sharon Hodgson).
On committee corridor: Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty discusses antimicrobial resistance with the Public Accounts Committee from 10 a.m. … former Justice Secretary Robert Buckland scrutinises the Crime and Policing Bill with the bill committee at 12.15 p.m.; Victims’ Commissioner Helen Newlove joins at 2.40 p.m.
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 11 a.m. with questions on providing exemptions for certain funds associated with foreign powers to invest in U.K. newspapers and news magazines, a quota for refugee resettlement and moral implications of reducing Official Development Assistance funding … a statement on the spring statement … and second reading of the Employment Rights Bill.
BEYOND THE M25
FIGHTING TALK: An anti-Labour unit has been set up in Lib Dem HQ to refine attacks ahead of the Hull and East Yorkshire mayoralty contest and council elections in Newcastle, Sheffield and Liverpool, the Spectator’s James Heale reports. Attack lines are set to include winter fuel, social care and special educational needs support.
CHAOS:The crisis in Ireland’s parliament deepened Wednesday as Sinn Féin and other opposition leaders demanded Speaker Verona Murphy resign after only three months on the job. Sinn Féin Leader Mary Lou McDonald said her party will introduce a formal no-confidence motion unless the speaker resigns by the end of the week. My colleague Shawn Pogatchnik has the story.
NO SIGN OF STOPPING: Özgür Özel, the leader of Turkey’s main opposition party, told the BBC that protests will continue “in every city” until early presidential elections are called or the jailed mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu, is released.
IN COURT: Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro will stand trial for allegedly attempting to stage a coup against current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, after the Supreme Court’s panel voted unanimously in support of the trial going ahead. Read more on the BBC.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Tonight over, 164,000 children will go to bed in temporary accommodation. They will face real consequences over the course of their lives such as poorer health, lower wages and fewer opportunities. At Lloyds Banking Group, we are continuing to champion social housing and that’s why we have supported £19.5 billion in funding to the sector since 2018. We are going further – converting decommissioned data centers and former office sites into social housing, providing £200 million of funding for local projects, and working with the Government to unlock investment. Together with Crisis, we are calling for one million more homes at social rent over the next decade. Find out what's ahead.**
MEDIA ROUND
Chancellor Rachel Reeves broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today (8.10 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.) … Bloomberg TV (8.40 a.m.) … GB News (8.45 a.m.).
Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride broadcast round: GMB (7.10 a.m.) … Channel 5 (7.30 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … GB News (8.05 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (8.30 a.m.) … LBC (8.45 a.m.) … Talk (9.15 a.m.).
Also on Today: Lib Dem Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper (6.50 a.m.) …OBR Chair Richard Hughes (7.10 a.m.) … Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately (7.30 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Crossbench peer Karan Bilimoria (7.10 a.m.) … former U.S. intelligence officer Matthew Shoemaker (7.20 a.m.) … former Commercial Secretary to the Treasury Jim O’Neill (7.40 a.m.) … Currys CEO Alex Baldock (8.35 a.m.) … former Assistant Chief of the Defence StaffJonathan Shaw (9.05 a.m.).
Also on Good Morning Britain: Mother of murdered teenager Brianna Ghey, Esther Ghey (8.15 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: OBR Budget Responsibility Committee member David Miles (7.15 a.m.) … Labour MP Richard Burgon and former Chancellor Philip Hammond (8.05 a.m.) … the Lib Dems’ Daisy Cooper (8.45 a.m.) … IFS Deputy Director Helen Miller (9.35 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Reform UK Chair Zia Yusuf (7.45 a.m.) … Daisy Cooper (8.30 a.m.).
Also on LBC News: Daisy Cooper (7.20 a.m.) … Unite the Union National Lead Officer Onay Kasab (7.45 a.m.) … former Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green (8.20 a.m.).
Politics Live (BBC Two, 12.15 p.m.): … Labour MP Catherine Atkinson … Conservative MP Saqib Bhatti … Green Party Co-Leader Carla Denyer … the Spectator’s Katy Balls.
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: The Starmer and Reeves double act is about to be tested.
Daily Express: ‘Reckless’ Rachel ‘tanks economy’ by killing growth.
Daily Mail: Deluded.
Daily Mirror: Balancing the books on the backs of the poor.
Daily Star: Bombs away!!
Financial Times: Tax rise fears cloud Reeves’ fiscal fix.
i: Tax hikes and extra cuts on the way, as 250,000 people pushed into poverty by benefits squeeze.
Metro: Anger at Labour’s warfare state.
The Daily Telegraph: Five years of record taxes.
The Guardian: Reeves accused of balancing books at expense of the poor.
The Independent: Labour admits Reeves benefit cuts will push 250,000 into poverty.
The Sun: Prince of bales.
The Times: Reeves squeezed by Trump.
TODAY’S NEWS MAG
POLITICO Europe: The House of Le Pen — France’s political immortals.
The New Statesman: Putin’s Endgame.
The Spectator: Power Players.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: The sun will do its best to break through the clouds. High 18C, low 8C.
SPOTTED … at the Labour Growth Group drinks reception at Walkers of Whitehall: Labour MPs Lola McEvoy, Connor Rand, Kate Dearden, Claire Hazelgrove, Imogen Walker, Naushabah Khan, Sean Woodcock, Chris Curtis, Alistair Strathern, Joe Powell, Tom Rutland and Callum Anderson … Foreign Office SpAd Will Heilpern … Treasury SpAd Spencer Thompson … LCEF’s Megan Corton Scott … Co-op Group’s Caitlin Prowle … Labour staffer Jenny Symmons … Anacta’s Teddy Ryan and Kate Forrester … and hacks Ailbhe Rea and Patrick Maguire.
Also spotted … at the Food and Drink Federation dinner at the Guildhall … Small Business Minister Gareth Thomas … Food Security Minister Daniel Zeichner … Shadow Environment Secretary Victoria Atkins … Labour MPs Mike Reader, Amanda Hack, Julie Minns and James Asser … Conservative peer Anne McIntosh … Food and Drink Federation CEO Karen Betts and President Gerald Mason … former BEIS Secretary Greg Clark … and the Times’s Oliver Wright.
Also spotted … at the LGBT+ Labour and Labour YIMBY fundraiser for LGBTQ+ homelessness charity Akt: Creative Industries Minister Chris Bryant … Labour MPs Deirdre Costigan, Andrew Western, Rachel Taylor and David Burton Sampson … drag queen host Lola Lasagne, who said: “I do appreciate the irony of a Labour fundraiser after that Rachel Reeves speech today” … Stonewall’s Charles White … NEC member Abdi Duale … Labour YIMBY’s Marc Harris and Shreya Nanda … Centre for Cities’ Ant Breach … YIMBY Alliance’s Kane Emerson … CEO of AKT Adam Pemberton Wickham.
Also spotted … at the launch of Quentin Letts’ novel “Nunc!” at St. Matthew’s Church … Conservative MP Esther McVey … former Conservative MPs Greg Hands, Nigel Evans, Philip Davies, Alan Duncan, Jonathan Aitken and Jacob Rees-Mogg … Conservative peer Norman Lamont … columnist Dominic Lawson … former Times Executive Editor Roger Alton.
NEW GIG 1: The House’s Tali Fraser is joining ConservativeHome as its new assistant editor.
NEW GIG 2: The Economist has appointed Social Affairs Editor Sacha Nauta to the role of Britain editor.
YIKES: U.S. Republican House Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene shouted down Sky News’ Martha Kelner for, er, daring to ask a question, saying “we don’t give a cr*p about your opinion and your reporting. Why don’t you go back to your country where you have a major migrant problem?” Charming.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK FRIDAY MORNING: Stefan Boscia.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: POLITICO’s D.C. Playbook Managing Editor and Author Jack Blanchard … Bracknell MP Peter Swallow … former Peterborough MP Paul Bristow … Lib Dem peer Qurban Hussain … former Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy … former BBC political correspondent Ross Hawkins.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Dan Bloom and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dean Southwell.
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