The pitchforks are out as we await the long-awaited Man City FFP verdict, but how will they feel about their five potential sanctions?
Two sodding years have passed since Man City were referred to an independent commission over 100+ alleged breaches of the Premier League’s FFP regulations, but the process is finally nearing a conclusion with the case’s verdict due ‘any day’ now.
You’d think it would be squeaky bum time at the Etihad, but Man City have remained confident in insisting on their innocence throughout this process, as proven by the lucrative new contracts awarded to Pep Guardiola/Erling Haaland and their market-leading massive spend on transfers in January.
Man City will be lawyered up beyond belief as after investing literal billions to become a footballing superpower, they will now be spending a fortune (presumably more than the Premier League) to remain as such and protect their under-scrutiny image.
Still, some pretty severe punishments await Man City if the eventual ruling goes against them. But which possible sanction would impact them the most? Below, we’ve ranked them from least to most severe…
5) A fineMan City’s Sheikh Mansour may have been overtaken by PIF in the Premier League owner rich list, but he is certainly not short of a pound or two.
So, while a multi-million-pound fine would be enough to send certain English clubs into turmoil, it would not even scratch the surface at Man City.
Given the calibre of lawyers that will inevitably be at their disposal, a large fine would be the least severe punishment if their wrongdoing is proven, and that’s largely why it is probably most likely.
READ: Man City FFP: Liverpool, Man Utd, even Spurs among new winners of reallocated trophies on alternate timeline
4) Transfer banWhile Man City would not be seriously impacted behind the scenes if they are handed a huge fine, the same cannot be said on the pitch if they are given a transfer ban for their supposed misdemeanours.
Many presumed Guardiola headed into the 2024/25 campaign with the best squad in the Premier League, but Ballon d’Or winner Rodri was papering over the cracks, and their disastrous form around the New Year ended their title hopes as they have to settle for a Champions League qualification fight.
Their £180m+ spend in January barely scratched the surface as it remains to be seen whether their winter additions (barring Omar Marmoush) will shine or flop, while Kevin De Bruyne is likely to follow Kyle Walker in leaving when his contract expires this summer.
A transfer ban would allow Liverpool, Arsenal and others, potentially, to march clear of Man City heading into next season and beyond. Still, even with their dramatic decline, the promising academy products at Guardiola’s disposal and the ridiculous Erling Haaland ensure they would still have enough to remain in the top four picture until they are allowed to enter the market for signings again.
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3) Points deductionNow, onto the tastier solutions. A points deduction – which could reportedly be 100 at most – could at least end Man City’s title aspirations for another season, especially with Liverpool and Arsenal bound to strengthen in the summer.
Based on the current Premier League standings, which is not a normal reflection of Man City under Guardiola, they would still be a point clear of the relegation zone with a 30-point deduction. Last season, they would have finished above Newcastle United in seventh with the same penalty and survived the drop if they had 60 taken away.
The ever-widening quality gap between the Premier League and Championship would typically be enough to quash Man City’s fears of finishing in the bottom three via a massive deduction, though their uncharacteristic 24/25 form, plus potential prolonged slump if Guardiola messes up their rebuild, could give them a mountain to climb even against a side struggling to reach the 20-point mark next term.
2) ExpulsionImmediate expulsion to the Championship (or below) would be the dream scenario for most of Man City’s Premier League rivals, and with them out of the picture, neutrals would be treated to an all-timer title race with non-elite calibre contenders Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle United potentially left to chase each other’s tails.
But for the elder, non-glory supporter contingent of the Man City fanbase, a nostalgia-filled stint in the Football League could even be welcomed for old-time’s sake.
The prospect of Man City doing a Rangers and climbing back up through the divisions would be a refreshing respite for onlookers of the Premier League who had grown tired of their relentless dominance or recent return to the periphery of the title scene.
While this could simply delay the inevitable as Man City lay the groundwork for another period at the top, Saudi-backed Newcastle United are already waiting in the shadows with FFP the only thing in the way of them rapidly establishing a new elite.
An enforced relegation down a league or two would afford the Magpies an opportune chance to grasp City’s Premier League crown for the next era of dominance.
READ: Man City FFP: Guardiola’s 28-man squad ranked on post-relegation exit likelihood with verdict looming
1) Being stripped of Premier League titlesAs inconvenient as some of these punishments would be, it would not take away Man City’s recent history with eight Premier League title wins and one Champions League triumph.
If their guilt ends up being proven, a rather large asterisk would suddenly hover like a dark cloud over Man City’s period of supremacy, but supporters would – even if it made themselves and rivals feel uneasy – still be able to cling to the fact that their trophy haul remains intact.
Yet should Man City’s titles be snatched away, not only would rivals such as Arsenal, Liverpool and Man Utd gleefully accept their delayed crowning moments, this drastic action would undo the unbelievable work done by Guardiola and the less-famous decision-makers behind the scenes who have collectively transformed them into an elite force in the footballing world.
While their immaculate structure would remain in place, their recent history of success would be diminished as on paper, they would return to being a middling Premier League side who are striving to emerge from under the shadow of local (and superior) rivals Manchester United.
Thankfully for Man City, the money men typically come out on top in these scenarios, so we better brace ourselves for the meltdown at the maximum sanctioning of a simple fine should the Premier League unexpectedly come out on top.