The era of nuclear warfare has been going through a dynamic shift as emerging technologies have revolutionized the terminologies of international relations, i.e., deterrence, strategy, and security. The change is being observed in the form of artificial intelligence (AI) for hypersonic missiles, quantum computing, and strategic autonomous weapon systems. The upgradation of nuclear weapons has raised serious concerns for the international world. Here the question arises: “Will the emergence of these technologies mitigate instability or drive the earth to a devastating war?”
AI is being transformed and integrated into nuclear command and control systems as AI is capable of processing big data, helping in the detection of potential threats more accurately than human analysis, and assisting in strategic decision-making. However, the integration of AI in nuclear strategy raises heavy concerns attributed to security and ethics. The risk of miscalculation or mistake would lead to inevitable circumstances. A nuclear response system, driven by AI without satisfactory human supervision, may perceive a threat mistakenly and respond to the threat too quickly, which would trigger a catastrophic chain reaction.
Hypersonic missiles are being proved to be a game changer in the arena of nuclear warfare as they are capable of travelling at speeds exceeding Mach 5, i.e., five times the speed of sound. Few hypersonic having speed Mach-10 e.g. China’s DF-ZF (HGV) possesses a speed of Mach 10 (12,350 km/h or 7,673 mph) designed for precision strikes against military bases and aircraft carriers. The emergence of these weapons has challenged existing missile defense systems as the hypersonic missiles can strike with unprecedented speed and precision. Global security is challenged after the innovation of such missiles. The international security works with traditional deterrence models, which are based on mutually assured destruction (MAD); however, the development of hypersonic missiles has reduced the decision-making time for retaliation and increased the options for preemptive strikes.
Quantum computing is said to be a revolutionary technology that would enable the users to enhance its cybersecurity. Although quantum computing is still in the developmental phase, it has developed a race towards the achievement of the technology. Companies like Google, IBM, and Quantum Lab of China are working on its development. However, quantum computing, where it provides opportunities, also poses challenges for nuclear deterrence, as the rival states equipped with quantum technologies could break the existing methods of encryption, revealing the command and control system. If nuclear weapon systems become vulnerable to cyberattacks, it would lead to a total collapse of deterrence and enhance ways of miscommunication among nuclear states.
Autonomous weapons have also reshaped nuclear warfare as they are being used in surveillance, targeted attacks, and threat perceptions. However, AI-driven weapons making independent strike decisions have disturbed its emergence. Mitigating human intervention has intensified the risk of escalation. Autonomous drones such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) possess the ability to trace and hit the target independently. Turkey’s KARGU-2 can be the best example of a UAV that reportedly targeted and attacked without human control. Israel’s Harpy Drone is an example of a suicide drone, while AI-driven tanks, guns, and robots can also be operated without human supervision, as we can see with Russia’s Uran-9 combat robot, which was used in Syria. Submarines or surface ships can also be driven by AI, as the U.S. Sea Hunter is an autonomous strategic vehicle specified to trace submarines in the sea. We can also witness Israel’s Iron Dome and Russia’s S400, which is an automated defense system designed to intercept and respond to the threat without human intervention. Autonomous weapons would certainly reshape global security and modern warfare tactics.
The arms race is being fueled by these emerging technologies due to the security dilemma. Contrary to the era of the Cold War, in which the USSR and the United States of America largely dictated nuclear policy, contemporary nuclear states, including Russia, China, and even India, would rapidly enhance their military’s technological advancement. Such advancement without regulation under international bindings could enhance an arms race that would ultimately lead to a threat to global security.
This is the need of the hour to regulate the integration and use of AI in nuclear strategy. Contemporary arms control treaties, such as the New START treaty, were designed to deal with traditional nuclear arms and were unable to account for the complexities brought by emerging technologies. The world urgently needs to prioritize efforts to establish mechanisms and codes of conduct to avoid destabilization and decrease the risk of accidental nuclear conflict.
Nuclear warfare is being revolutionized by emerging technologies in various ways, which could either enhance international security or lead to unacceptable instability, as AI, quantum computing, hypersonic missiles, and autonomous weapons systems offer strategic advantages, but they also possess substantial risks. This is the challenge for international leadership: to drive such technological advancement with cautionary measures, ensuring that strategic modernization does not overtake diplomacy and international security. The world cannot afford irresponsible governance that could lead to unforeseen disaster, as the future of nuclear warfare may be dictated not by strategic balance; rather, it may be driven by technological unpredictability.