Elon Musk has been taking a chainsaw to government spending. Next week, we'll find out how much these antics have chopped Tesla sales.
The largest US electric vehicle company is expected to release first-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers on April 2.
This is the first time we'll get a full, official look at Tesla sales since Musk went full DOGE when President Donald Trump took office in late January.
A well-known Tesla bull just shared his expectations for these numbers and estimated how much Musk's DOGE activity may have hurt sales.
"Musk leading DOGE has essentially taken on a life of its own as in the process Tesla has unfortunately become a political symbol globally," Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. He pointed to protests, demonstrations at Tesla dealerships, and keyed cars.
A 'brand tornado crisis moment'
He expects first-quarter Tesla deliveries of 355,000 to 360,000 vehicles, down about 7% from the same period a year earlier.
Just a few months ago, Wall Street expected more than 400,000 Teslas to be delivered in the first quarter, so some of the DOGE impact has already been discounted, Ives wrote.
Existing data suggests that Tesla's sales numbers in Europe have been under "major pressure," while there's also been "demand softness" in the US and China, the analyst wrote on Wednesday.
"This continues to be a moment of truth for Musk to navigate this brand tornado crisis moment and get onto the other side of this dark chapter for Tesla with much better days ahead we see for the story," Ives wrote.
How much is Musk's fault?
Ives attributed the sales woes to several issues that may be unrelated to Musk's DOGE exploits, such as consumers waiting for an updated Model Y and a lower-cost new car that may come later in 2025.
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He still conceded that anti-Musk sentiment and "brand issues" are causing problems and are "a major factor in this weak 1Q delivery number."
He estimated that 30% of next week's soft Q1 delivery number will be related to "Musk/brand/DOGE," while 70% is more about the timing of new or updated products and "non-brand headwind issues."