Presented by Lloyds Banking Group
London Playbook
By EMILIO CASALICCHIO
with NOAH KEATE
Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio.
THURSDAY CHEAT SHEET
— Keir Starmer said sanctions must not be eased on Russia and Moscow should face a deadline on peace talks with Ukraine. It sounded like a message to Donald Trump.
— British and French military chiefs will discuss with the Ukrainians how their services could be implemented.
— A senior Labour MP is getting frustrated about the lack of action on Russian asset freezes.
— The chat about tax rises has begun. Welcome to the next six months.
— A Cabinet minister made clear the digital tech tax is on the table to appease Trump — as a steel firm reeling from MAGA tariffs made steps to shutter.
— No more free VIP pop concerts for Rachel Reeves.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Right now, over 1.5 million households across the country are on waiting lists for social housing. At Lloyds Banking Group, we are continuing to champion social housing and that’s why we have supported £19.5 billion of funding to the sector since 2018. Find out what’s ahead**
TOP OF THE NEWSLIST
WILL FOX BE BROADCASTING THIS? Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron tried to send messages to Donald Trump not to appease the Russians over Ukraine after the latest international talks about a possible peacekeeping mission.
No Sea change: The PM and his French counterpart insisted in separate press conferences this afternoon that sanctions must not be lifted on Russia as reward for a truce in the Black Sea — as Moscow has demanded.
The filibuster: “Quite the contrary, what we discussed is how we can increase sanctions to support the U.S. initiative, to bring Russia to the table through further pressure from this group of countries,” Starmer told reporters, adding that “now is not the time for the lifting of sanctions.”
And there’s more: Starmer also said some kind of deadline should be imposed on the Russians for agreeing to peace. “It’s clear the Russians are filibustering,” he said. “They are playing games and they’re playing for time. It is a classic from the Putin playbook, but we can’t let them drag this out.”(Putin playbook is no relation to this newsletter.)
You listening Donald? “Instead, we should be setting a framework and a deadline of delivering real progress, and then we should hold them to that deadline.“ Not sure what the Don will make of that.
The problem is … the so-called coalition of the willing needs its own deadline after hours of meetings that have failed to come up with a finished plan. Macron even said there was no agreement about sending a European-led force. Although he insisted a unanimous agreement is not required to move ahead.
At least this bloke is not bored: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told his own press conference he is pleased with how the coalition summits are going. He said at each meeting the position becomes “clearer and stronger” despite minor differences.
Could be a minor difference: Italian PM Georgia Meloni (who has ruled out sending Italian troops to help out) said the U.S. should be involved in the next summit.
Next steps: Starmer and Macron said French and British forces chiefs who have been in discussions about logistics will present options to Ukraine to decide what is possible.
Deep freeze: As allies hang out in Paris, some MPs are wondering what happened to the idea of seizing Russian frozen assets. The proposal hit a wall over legal objections and risks to the euro, but hasn’t been much discussed since.
Come on come on: Emily Thornberry, chair of the foreign affairs committee, told Playbook PM “everybody knows that we cannot do this unilaterally” but “I have not had a clear answer from the foreign secretary on what he is doing to encourage our allies to move with us on this, whether at the G7, UN General Assembly, or in Paris today.” Thornberry (a lawyer) reckons it’s “a matter of politics, not law.”
IT’S THE STUPID ECONOMY
AS ONE WINDOW OF SPECULATION CLOSES … Westminster kicked off the next six-plus months of speculation about which taxes Rachel Reeves will raise in her second autumn budget, after the spring statement this week left the rumor mill swirling. In his post-spring statement briefing this morning, Institute for Fiscal Studies boss Paul Johnson came up with a couple of ideas to spark up the endless SW1 chatter about the next fiscal event.
Spitballing: “A raid on pensions?” he mused. “A wealth tax on the richest? Another hike to capital gains tax?”
What about no tax rises? Doubtful. Reeves and her colleagues are avoiding questions about tax rises now via the classic refusal to write the next budget this far in advance. But Johnson argued higher taxes are all-but invevitable. ‘There is a good chance that economic and fiscal forecasts will deteriorate significantly between now and an autumn budget,” he said over video link from his office. “If so, she will need to come back for more, which will likely mean raising taxes even further.”
Either that or … there could be spending cuts, with the IFS setting a shining example. The independent economics think tank used to do in-person events for these briefings, with a much-heralded sandwich and cake lunch. But belts have been sorely tightened.
Elsewhere from the IFS spring statement-fest (deep breath): The wonks said spending on debt interest is now £64 billion more than was forecast in 2022 … the chancellor is now borrowing some £50 billion more than expected last October, in part because tax receipts have been lower than expected … the deep spending cuts required at the spending review might well not happen because, erm, such promises get forever broken … the transfer of aid spending to defense spending is something of an illusion, and aid cuts are instead being used to mitigate other departmental cuts … pretending the fuel tax freeze will be unfrozen is propping up about half the chancellor’s “headroom” budget surplus … despite the welfare cuts, spending on benefits is still rising — albeit a little more slowly … the £1 billion allocated for helping welfare claimants into work will impact tens of thousands of people, rather than the hundreds of thousands Labour claims … and all claims on the impact of benefit cuts aren’t worth much regardless, because previous attempts at reform were “spectacularly unsuccessful.”
Oh, and … lots of the above might be total b*llocks because there are big questions around the quality of ONS data right now. For example, the current numbers suggest a dramatic decline in living standards over the forecast period. But the IFS noted it could just be bad measurements, and the decline could instead be marginal.
No biggie … it’s not like we’re using this data to weave make-or-break political narratives and shifting billions of pounds around to hit a few self-imposed targets, right?
On, and one more thing from the IFS: The whole “world has changed” thing is (surprise, surprise) not quite borne out by the facts. The think tank had a chart comparing the impact of global events on current and past economic forecasts, and our current moment suggests the Trump hurricane is a factor but not causing a “world-shattering revision.”
Although … that could of course change when we fail to stop our bestest friend in the world and Churchill bust-admirer Donald Trump slapping 20 percent tariffs from next week on all the stuff we make and send to America. Starmer told the press conference the car tariffs are “very concerning.” The government line on so-called “liberation day” remains that the U.K. is having “pragmatic” and “productive” negotiations with the White House.
Thinking emoji: If talks so far have been productive, what the bejesus would unproductive talks result in? “If British car makers end up on the receiving end of Trump’s tariffs, this will have been a catastrophic failure of U.K. trade policy,” Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith told Playbook PM.
Although … as one trade expert has been telling people in Westminster, if the U.K. is mere MAGA collateral, rather than being a direct target like Canada or Mexico etc, we’re winning.
Here’s an idea: Reeves was sounding a little more robust than her colleagues about the White House dudes when she took to the airwaves this morning — insisting she did not want to start a trade war, but sounding *almost* like she was threatening Elon Musk. Asked on Radio 4 whether the U.K. should stop subsidizing Tesla (£200 million and counting) she said the government is indeed “looking at the zero emission vehicle mandate — which is I think why some of that money goes to Tesla — and looking at how we can better support the car manufacturing industry in the U.K.” Twitter tin foil hats at the ready.
Here’s another idea: We could just give Trump all that he wants and hope it works this time. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told Chatham House this morning the tech tax Trump hates is not something that “can never change or that we can never have a conversation about it,” my ace trade colleague Caroline Hug writes in. The biz sec noted that the Americans have “concerns about the specific structure.” That sounds quite different from Reeves making “get lost” sounds towards the White House last night. She would need to find another £1.2 billion if the tax was ditched, to be fair.
Eyes emoji: Asked how hopeful he was for a U.S.-U.K. trade deal to avoid further tariffs and cancel the existing ones, Reynolds joked “Can I tell you tonight?”
More to thank the Donald for: Chinese firm British Steel (amusing name, right?) announced their Scunthorpe steel works is likely to close — in part due to tariffs from the U.S. making a tough climate even tougher. Reynolds insisted (when he wasn’t being heckled by pro-Palestine protestors) he is working with the firm to reach an agreement that secures the future of the blast furnaces. The shuttered steelworks could be a nice spot to take the Don when he comes for his lavish second state visit.
And of course: Thousands more steelworkers losing their jobs could not come at a worse time optics-wise, as the government slashes welfare and fights off claims it’s not some kind of Thatcherite dress-up show. Labour MPs continued to voice quiet concern about the welfare cuts in the Commons this morning, after Lib Dem MP Steve Darling secured an urgent question on the benefit changes.
Not helping: The number of kids living in relative poverty (below 60 percent of the median income after housing costs) hit a record high of almost 4.5 million in the 12 months to March 2024, according to new government figures.
Now read this: Newbie Labour MP Neil Duncan-Jordan has written an excoriating piece on the cuts for Tribune magazine.
DRIVETIME DEBRIEF
FUN CHIPPED AWAY: Chancellor Rachel Reeves said she will no longer take freebie concert tickets, after the furor over her VIP Sabrina Carpenter box. “I don’t have any intention of doing this again,” she told ITV this morning. “I thought it was the right decision for my family on that occasion but I do understand how people feel about it.”
Reminder: Reeves has said she isn’t a big Sabrina Carpenter fan herself but someone from her clan was desperate to go and getting the box was the only option security-wise. She has said it was not possible to pay for the box — although since an estimation of value exists surely some kind of equivalent charitable donation would be possible in these kinds of cases.
HOURS OF POO: Environment Secretary Steve Reed was spewing bile about sewage discharge into natural waters reaching a new high in 2024. The Environment Agency said storm overflows allowed sewage spills for 3.61 million hours in 2024, up from 3.6 million in 2023. However the number of spills was down a little, from 464,000 to 450,000. Reed said the numbers were a “disgrace” but said the government had passed laws to punish water firms and is cracking on with massive water works upgrades.
MORE BROKEN BRITAIN: The criminal court case backlog hit 74,651 and could reach 100,000 before the end of 2029, according to new figures from the justice ministry.
NSFW: The current crop of Tory MPs are a bunch of “boring stuck-up old bastards,” Nigel Farage declared at his press gallery lunch with journalists today. He otherwise largely steered clear of committing much news after quaffing some salmon and a baked supreme of chicken — in between some G&Ts and red wine. He refused to say how big his debanking row settlement from NatWest was … and revealed he still texts a “little bit” with former bestie Elon Musk.
Speaking of the Tories: The Kemi Badenoch speech to the Anthropy conference at the Eden Project this morning was, aside from this perplexing passage, a classic of the genre about how supporting business is good and Rachel Reeves is bad. Playbook PM could not help but smirk at this wonderful line: “For too long, politics has been about winning elections, not planning for the future. I want to change that.”
CHINESE WATCHERS: The Foreign Affairs Committee launched an inquiry into the government’s China Audit and is accepting evidence until May 5.
JUST STOP OIL JUST … STOP: Climate group Just Stop Oil announced it will no longer pursue its campaign of disruptive and attention-grabbing stunts. The group — which emerged in 2022 — said it had served its purpose because the government had promised to end new exploration of oil and gas in the North Sea. But critics suggested it had been cowed after numerous activists were handed significant prison sentences.
Not in mourning: A spokesperson for Keir Starmer said Just Stop Oil had succeeded in little more than “creating a significant amount of disruption and public nuisance and destroying a few oil paintings.”
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: A £250 million investment from Vishay Intertechnology to make semiconductors in Wales … a £740 million funding allocation to increase special educational needs and disabilities places in schools.
COMING ATTRACTIONS: The Runcorn by-election has been scheduled for May 1.
SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS
GETTING ANIMATED: For some light entertainment and a proper blast from the past, AI has recreated iconic scenes from British politics over the last two decades Studio Ghibli-style.
BEYOND THE M25
FROM NORTHERN IRELAND: The BBC spoke to numerous Northern Irish politicians from across parties about the extensive abuse and threats they have received, with some considering leaving frontline politics altogether.
Anything to declare? TheyWorkForYou’s Alex Parsons announced the invaluable website now has registers of interest for all four parliaments/assemblies in the U.K., and pages breaking down the whole thing by category.
IN POLAND: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk banned migrants from claiming asylum for up to 60 days in response to an influx of migration at the border with Belarus. The Telegraph has more.
ACROSS THE POND: The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services will cut around 10,000 full time jobs and close half of its regional offices as part of a major overhaul by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Reuters has a writeup.
MERZ’S MOMENT? Forming a government in Germany is far from easy as CDU Leader Friedrich Merz, who won last month’s general election, is discovering. In Berlin for the new session of the Bundestag and ongoing coalition talks, Power Play host Anne McElvoy talks to Gordon Repinski, POLITICO’s Executive Editor in Germany, and Jennifer Wilton, editor-in-chief of the daily newspaper Die Welt, about whether Chancellor-in-waiting Merz can restore Germany’s economic fortunes and repair transatlantic relations.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Tonight over, 164,000 children will go to bed in temporary accommodation. They will face real consequences over the course of their lives such as poorer health, lower wages and fewer opportunities. At Lloyds Banking Group, we are continuing to champion social housing and that’s why we have supported £19.5 billion in funding to the sector since 2018. We are going further – converting decommissioned data centers and former office sites into social housing, providing £200 million of funding for local projects, and working with the Government to unlock investment. Together with Crisis, we are calling for one million more homes at social rent over the next decade. Find out what's ahead.**
TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND
LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) leads on a trial at Teesside Magistrates Court … ITV Evening News (6.30 p.m.) focuses on the impact of U.S. trade tariffs … as does Channel 4 News (7 p.m.), which has an interview with Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Youth Select Committee Chair Wania Ahmad (5.05 p.m.) … Just Stop Oil spokesperson Hayley Walsh (5.35 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden … Ukrainian diplomat Mariana Betsa … former U.S. National Security Council Chief of Staff Frederick H. Fleitz … Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen … Danish People’s Party MEP Anders Vistisen … More in Common’s Luke Tryl … APCO Worldwide’s Jo Tanner.
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Pat McFadden … former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Larry Summers.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Confederation of British Metalforming President Steve Morley (5.30 p.m.) … retired U.S. National Guard Major General Randy Manner (6.30 p.m.).
Sky News Daily (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Academic David Bailey.
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Labour MP Stella Creasy … Lib Dem MP Tom Gordon … Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen … former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov.
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Former Tory MP Paul Scully.
GBN Tonight (GB News, 7 p.m.): Labour peer Maurice Glasman … Shadow Defence Minister Mark Francois … former U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton.
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Pat McFadden … George Osborne’s former Chief of Staff Rupert Harrison … Labour peer and broadcaster Ayesha Hazarika … former NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller.
BBC Newscast (Podcast, drops at 7 p.m.): Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride.
Matt Goodwin’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Former Labour PPC Kevin Craig.
Question Time (BBC Sounds and iPlayer 9 p.m. and BBC One, 10.40 p.m.): Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones … Shadow Paymaster General Richard Holden … Lib Dem Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper … the Telegraph’s Camilla Tominey … economist Gary Stevenson.
Patrick Christys Tonight (GB News, 9 p.m.): Tory peer Shaun Bailey … former Labour adviser Matthew Torbitt.
Newsnight (BBC Two, 10.30 p.m.): Luke Tryl … Octopus Energy CEO Greg Jackson.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Jack Surfleet.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Former Tory MP Julie Kirkbride and HuffPost’s Kevin Schofield … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): Former Scottish Labour Leader Kezia Dugdale and ConHome’s Henry Hill.
TOMORROW’S WORLD
HAPPENING OVERNIGHT: The National Audit Office has a report out about T-levels and the public accounts committee has a report out about energy bill support.
DATA DUMP: The ONS publishes final growth (or lack thereof) figures for October to December, at 7 a.m.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Rail upgrades.
IN THE COMMONS: MPs sit from 9.30 a.m. to discuss backbench bills.
IN THE LORDS: Peers are also holding a rare Friday sitting for a couple of debates, from 10 a.m.
BIG IN BRUMMY: Reform UK launches its local election campaign in Birmingham at 7 p.m.
ANY OTHER BUSINESS
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: The Debate: Grilled minute steak on ciabatta with red onion, Monterey Jack cheese and mustard mayo; prawn and cod paella with aioli; miso sesame eggplant and smoky tofu with bulgur wheat, spring onions and maple soy sauce … Terrace Cafeteria: cajun chicken breast with mixed peppers and BBQ beans; caramelized onion and broccoli quiche with salad and roast tomatoes; fish and chips … River Restaurant: Battered tofu with beans and chips; lamb koftas with chips, flat bread and salad; fish and chips.
SPOTTED: Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt running (in a suit) at Trafalgar Square.
JOB AD: The Institute for Government is hiring a researcher for their devolution team, with applications closing on March 31.
IN MEMORIAM: Scotland’s Minister for Drugs and Alcohol Policy Christina McKelvie died aged 57. McKelvie had been an MSP since 2007 and took medical leave last summer to undergo secondary breast cancer treatment. Her partner and SNP Depute Leader Keith Brown said she “was always hard working and enthusiastic and lit up every room she was in with her positivity and bright smile.” Scottish First Minister John Swinney said McKelvie was “one of the kindest and most generous people I have ever met” and “enhanced the lives of all around her.” Nicola Sturgeon, who appointed her minister for equalities and older people, said McKelvie’s “ability to connect with people on a very human level” was her super power. Holyrood magazine has a full tribute.
PRESS PROTEST: BBC journo Mark Lowen was detained by police in Istanbul for 17 hours after reporting on the recent protests against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Lowen, who previously lived in Turkey for five years, was deported back to London for “being a threat to public order,” an experience he called “extremely distressing.” BBC News CEO Deborah Turness said they would make representations to the Turkish authorities and “no journalist should face this kind of treatment simply for doing their job.”
BORN TO RUN: Tory MP Blake Stephenson runs the London Marathon next month to raise money for the Keech Hospice.
MAKING A COMEBACK: The Committee Corridor podcast returns to cover the work of select committees after almost two years away. Treasury Committee Chair Meg Hillier examines the Defense Committee’s inquiry into problems women face in the military and speaks to Lib Dem MP Steff Aquarone and Labour’s Natasha Irons about the experience of sitting on the scrutiny groups.
WHAT I’VE BEEN READING:The House has a long investigation by Justine Smith into the special educational needs crisis affecting more than 1.7 million school children in England — and forcing councils to spend eye-watering sums which are driving some to bankruptcy. Smith highlights how some companies see SEND as a “cash cow” as central government funding fails to meet the high demand.
And also … the i’s Adam Forrest has spoken to civil servants who feel cheesed off about the government’s war on Whitehall and presumption AI is the silver bullet for improving efficiency. They feel like an “easy target” and stressed Labour’s plans would be delayed or fail if their jobs went.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On March 27, 1782 Charles Watson-Wentworth became prime minister for the second time. He initiated the end of British involvement in the American War of Independence and paved the way for the creation of workhouses, but he died 14 weeks after taking office. On the same date in 2019, Theresa May told Conservative backbenchers she would quit as prime minister in exchange for them passing her Brexit deal. On the same date in 2020, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced he had tested positive for Covid-19, as had Health Secretary Matt Hancock — while Johnson’s chief aide Dominic Cummings drove 250 miles to Durham against lockdown guidance. It was a weird time.
Oh, and … it’s 11 years ago since Spectator Editor Michael Gove did the Wham! rap. (h/t Total Politics Group’s Mark Wallace.)
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Stefan Boscia.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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