Written by Kjeld van Wieringen.
The US Trump administration has set its sights on Ukraine’s vast mineral resources, and proposed a deal: to secure a portion of Ukraine’s rare earths in exchange for US support in the war against the Russian aggressor. Ukraine is a candidate for EU membership, and an earlier 2021 strategic partnership means the EU also has a stake in the future of Ukraine’s mineral sector. This briefing analyses the US and EU positions, to shed light on the potential future of rare earth mining in Ukraine.
In an interview on 10 February 2025, US President Donald Trump stated that the US should receive US$500 billion worth of rare earths from Ukraine as compensation for continued US military support to the country in resisting Russia’s war of aggression. Ukraine is known to possess deposits of 25 of the 34 raw materials identified as critical by the EU. Just days earlier, on 7 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had reaffirmed his openness to the idea of granting the US rights to exploit Ukrainian critical minerals, having previously included critical minerals as part of a ‘victory plan‘ presented to the US in September 2024. In January 2025, the Ukrainian government announced that it was working on deals with Western allies, including the US, Britain, France and Italy, involving the exploitation of critical materials.
However, many of Ukraine’s resources are located in the east and south, in areas that are either contested or occupied by Russia. According to the Ukrainian government, about 20 % of Ukraine’s minerals and half of its rare earth deposits are under Russian occupation. Current mappings of Ukraine’s supposed mineral wealth also rely on outdated Soviet-era surveys, which did not consider the cost or viability of developing those deposits, with many rare earth sites estimated to be unprofitable to extract.
[In an interview on 10 February 2025, US President Donald Trump stated that the US should receive US$500 billion worth of rare earths from Ukraine as compensation for continued US military support to the country in resisting Russia’s war of aggression. Ukraine is known to possess deposits of 25 of the 34 raw materials identified as critical by the EU. Just days earlier, on 7 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had reaffirmed his openness to the idea of granting the US rights to exploit Ukrainian critical minerals, having previously included critical minerals as part of a ‘victory plan’ presented to the US in September 2024. In January 2025, the Ukrainian government announced that it was working on deals with Western allies, including the US, Britain, France and Italy, involving the exploitation of critical materials.
However, many of Ukraine’s resources are located in the east and south, in areas that are either contested or occupied by Russia. According to the Ukrainian government, about 20 % of Ukraine’s minerals and half of its rare earth deposits are under Russian occupation. Current mappings of Ukraine’s supposed mineral wealth also rely on outdated Soviet-era surveys, which did not consider the cost or viability of developing those deposits, with many rare earth sites estimated to be unprofitable to extract. " data-image-caption="
Deposits of critical raw materials in Ukraine
" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Critical-raw-materials.png?fit=240%2C300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Critical-raw-materials.png?fit=820%2C1025&ssl=1" src="https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Critical-raw-materials.png?resize=820%2C1025&ssl=1" alt="Deposits of critical raw materials in Ukraine " class="wp-image-69853" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Critical-raw-materials.png?w=1080&ssl=1 1080w, https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Critical-raw-materials.png?resize=240%2C300&ssl=1 240w, https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Critical-raw-materials.png?resize=160%2C200&ssl=1 160w, https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Critical-raw-materials.png?resize=768%2C960&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Critical-raw-materials.png?resize=80%2C100&ssl=1 80w, https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Critical-raw-materials.png?resize=500%2C625&ssl=1 500w, https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Critical-raw-materials.png?resize=690%2C863&ssl=1 690w, https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Critical-raw-materials.png?resize=1024%2C1280&ssl=1 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px">](https://epthinktank.eu/?attachment_id=69853)
Deposits of critical raw materials in Ukraine
US-Ukraine talks on a deal involving the exchange of rare earths for security
At the Munich Security Conference in mid-February 2025, Zelenskyy reportedly refused to sign an agreement with the US in which Ukraine would hand over 50 % of its rare earth reserves to the US, in exchange for military support. He however agreed to continue talks for an alternative deal offering ‘real security guarantees’, his office stated. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also noted that the US had no legal rights to Ukraine’s minerals, as they were part of a strategic partnership on raw materials Kyiv had signed with the EU in 2021. He also remarked that ‘these raw materials are not only Ukrainian, they’re also European’. On 28 February 2025, Zelenskyy met with Trump at the White House for talks that were meant to lead to the signing of a new minerals deal. However, after a public argument, Zelenskyy was asked to leave instead. On 19 March, the White House stated that it had moved beyond the idea of establishing a US-Ukraine minerals deal, focusing on long-term peace instead.
Could Ukraine’s rare earths enhance the EU’s strategic autonomy?
The EU relies on China for 98 % of its rare earth imports. The EU Critical Raw Materials Act states that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine exposed the EU’s structural supply dependencies and their potentially damaging effects during crises. For example, nickel and lithium, crucial for electric vehicles and renewable energy, saw a 36 % and 15 % increase in prices, respectively, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine has vast mineral reserves, positioning it as a potential key global supplier of critical raw materials. However, significant investment is needed to exploit these reserves. According to the Ukrainian State Geological Service, the country harbours the largest titanium reserves in Europe, one of Europe’s largest lithium reserves of roughly 500 000 tonnes, and 20 % of the world’s graphite. The latter two are crucial components of current electric vehicle batteries. Rare earth metals found in Ukraine include beryllium, manganese, gallium, uranium, zirconium, graphite, apatite and fluorite, which are critical for sectors such as defence and semiconductors. In recognition of Ukraine as a significant source of critical raw materials, in 2021 the EU signed a strategic partnership with the country aimed at better integrating critical raw materials and battery value chains. Then-Commissioner Thierry Breton stated at the time that, ‘this partnership will contribute to diversifying the EU supply of raw materials and addressing … strategic dependencies’.
Ukraine is among the world’s top 10 suppliers of mineral resources. Before the invasion, its mining and metals sector contributed approximately 10 % to GDP and constituted 33 % of its exports. Ukrainian income from mining has since more than doubled (see Figure 2), stressing the strategic importance of minerals.
[Ukraine is among the world’s top 10 suppliers of mineral resources. Before the invasion, its mining and metals sector contributed approximately 10 % to GDP and constituted 33 % of its exports. Ukrainian income from mining has since more than doubled (see Figure 2), stressing the strategic importance of minerals. " data-image-caption="
Ukrainian mining income in Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) (in billions)
" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Ukrainian-mining-income.png?fit=300%2C77&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Ukrainian-mining-income.png?fit=796%2C204&ssl=1" src="https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Ukrainian-mining-income.png?resize=796%2C204&ssl=1" alt="Ukrainian mining income in Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) (in billions)" class="wp-image-69856" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Ukrainian-mining-income.png?w=796&ssl=1 796w, https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Ukrainian-mining-income.png?resize=300%2C77&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Ukrainian-mining-income.png?resize=200%2C51&ssl=1 200w, https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Ukrainian-mining-income.png?resize=768%2C197&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Ukrainian-mining-income.png?resize=390%2C100&ssl=1 390w, https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Ukrainian-mining-income.png?resize=500%2C128&ssl=1 500w, https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Ukrainian-mining-income.png?resize=690%2C177&ssl=1 690w" sizes="(max-width: 796px) 100vw, 796px">](https://epthinktank.eu/?attachment_id=69856)
Ukrainian mining income in Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) (in billions)
Ukraine has a qualified and relatively inexpensive labour force, well-developed infrastructure, and its mining sector remains attractive to investors. Observers suggest that mining investment in Ukraine could drive the EU’s green transition and support Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. Developing Ukraine’s mining sector with US or EU support would contribute to ‘Western self-sufficiency and economic security but also to strengthening both Ukraine’s economy and defence capacity’, according to Maria Repko from the Kyiv-based Centre for Economic Strategy. ‘Access to Ukrainian resources could help democratic countries achieve greater autonomy from non-democratic regimes, particularly in energy and technology’, according to Nataliya Katser-Buchkovska from the Ukrainian Institute for the Future. Ukraine’s critical raw materials are also part of the EU-Ukraine enlargement negotiations (Chapter 20). According to the European Commission, ‘Ukraine continues to lack specific regulations and strategic projects for the critical raw materials sector, prompting the need for alignment with EU standards after the adoption of the Critical Raw Materials Act’. In the context of increasing geopolitical competition, the US and EU each have a large stake in the future of Ukrainian rare earth mining. The question remains which power stands to benefit the most. Much will depend on future investment strategies, regulatory frameworks, and Ukraine’s own alignment.
Read this at a glance on ‘The future of rare earth mining in Ukraine‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.