The Vikings famously destroyed their win total last season. What's it being set at it this year?
Nov 10, 2024; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell before the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium.
Nov 10, 2024; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell before the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. / Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images
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Minnesota Vikings
Last year, the Vikings famously crushed their preseason Vegas win total to an extent that few teams in NFL history can match. They came into the year projected to win 6.5 games and more than doubled that, going 14-3 behind an incredible season from Sam Darnold and an elite defense. Kevin O'Connell was named the AP Coach of the Year as a result.
The Vikings' 2025 win total has now been revealed at ESPN BET. It's higher, but not by a ton, with the over/under sitting at 8.5 wins.
That feels somewhat fair. Let's make the case for both the over and the under.
The case for over 8.5 wins
O'Connell has soared over this number in two of his three seasons as Minnesota's head coach. And in 2023, the Vikings were 6-4 and then fell apart with Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall starting games at quarterback. Picking the head coach who is 34-17 in regular season games to find a path to at least a 9-8 record feels like a solid bet, though this should not be considered betting advice.
Obviously, the risk here is that J.J. McCarthy is now expected to be the starting QB, and he hasn't played a real game in the NFL yet. But if O'Connell can get the kind of production he's gotten out of Kirk Cousins and Darnold (and Dobbs and Mullens at times), why should we expect anything less from the guy he felt confident in selecting with the tenth overall pick last year? By all accounts, McCarthy was thoroughly impressing the Vikings' staff before his injury last August.
And just look at the pieces around him. The offensive line has two huge upgrades on the interior — Will Fries and Ryan Kelly — and is now 80 percent filled with Pro Bowl-caliber players. Last year's elite weapons (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, T.J. Hockenson) have now been supplemented with Jordan Mason and Rondale Moore.
Defensively, Brian Flores and the Vikings were second in the NFL last season in DVOA and opponent EPA per play, and they got better (on paper) this offseason. The signings of Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave addressed the biggest need on the roster, which was interior pass rush production. The front seven is going to be lethal, even if Dallas Turner doesn't make a big leap in year two. And in the secondary, Isaiah Rodgers and Theo Jackson should be solid replacements for Stephon Gilmore and Camryn Bynum.
This is a stacked roster led by two great coaches in O'Connell and Flores. If McCarthy is even a middle-of-the-pack quarterback right away, nine wins is very attainable.
The case for under 8.5 wins
This one starts with McCarthy, of course. He was the fifth QB picked in last year's draft, and because of his injury, he won't have thrown a pass in a competitive game in almost two years by the time Week 1 rolls around. His passing volume at Michigan was also much lower than the other quarterbacks in his draft class, so there's a good deal of uncertainty there.
The Vikings' schedule is also tougher this year. They've got the Eagles, Ravens, Commanders, and Bengals at home, and their road slate includes the Steelers, Cowboys, Chargers, and Seahawks. That's not to mention their six games against the Lions, the Packers, and the potentially much-improved Bears.
Minnesota was also quite healthy last seaon. McCarthy and Mekhi Blackmon were out for the entire year, and a couple players (Hockenson, Christian Darrisaw, Ivan Pace Jr.) missed chunks of time, but almost all of the Vikings' key contributors were out there basically every week. Their free agent haul this offseason includes four players (Fries, Kelly, Allen, Hargrave) who missed a combined 42 of 68 games last season. There's some risk on that front.
With a tough schedule and an unknown 22-year-old stepping in at quarterback, any significant injuries could be very damaging to the Vikings' outlook. And even if they stay healthy, they'll be counting on McCarthy to deliver if they're going to have a third winning season under O'Connell.
The Vikings are +450 to win the NFC North at ESPN BET, which is last in the division. The Lions are +135 and have a win total of 10.5. The Packers are at +260 and 9.5. The Bears are +425 and 8.5. Minnesota is +3500 to win the Super Bowl, which is tied with Chicago for the 14th-best odds.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Published 16 Minutes Ago|Modified 2:40 PM EDT
WILL RAGATZ
Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.