With just over two weeks left in the NBA regular season, a three-team race for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference has taken shape. There's a good chance only one of those three teams — the Clippers, Warriors, and Timberwolves — will escape the play-in tournament.
Here's what the West standings look like heading into Thursday night's games. The Nuggets, Lakers, and Grizzlies aren't mathematically secure in their top-six seeds, but they should be safe unless they fall apart down the final stretch. The Lakers got a big buzzer-beating tip-in from LeBron James on Wednesday night against the Pacers to keep some distance over teams 6-8.
NBA Western Conference standings as of March 27
NBA Western Conference standings as of March 27 / ESPN
Which team will avoid the play-in fate and secure the No. 6 seed? Let's take a look at the remaining schedules for each of the Clippers, Warriors, and Wolves.
Clippers Warriors Timberwolves
3/28: @ Nets (23-50) 3/28: @ Pelicans (20-53) 3/28: vs. Suns (35-38)
3/30: @ Cavaliers (58-14) 3/30: @ Spurs (31-40) 3/30: vs. Jazz (16-57)
3/31: @ Magic (35-38) 4/1: @ Grizzlies (44-28) 4/1: @ Nuggets (46-28)
4/2: vs. Pelicans (20-53) 4/3: @ Lakers (44-28) 4/3: @ Nets (23-50)
4/4: vs. Mavericks (35-38) 4/4: vs. Nuggets (46-28) X
4/5: vs. Mavericks (35-38) 4/6: vs. Rockets (47-26) 4/5: @76ers (23-50)
4/8: vs. Spurs (31-40) 4/8: @ Suns (35-38) 4/8: @ Bucks (40-32)
4/9: vs. Rockets (47-26) 4/9: vs. Spurs (31-40) 4/10: @Grizzlies (44-28)
4/11: @ Kings (35-37) 4/11 @ Trail Blazers (32-41) 4/11: vs. Nets (23-50)
4/13: @ Warriors (41-31) 4/13: vs. Clippers (41-31) 4/13: vs. Jazz (16-57)
The Warriors have the toughest remaining schedule of the three, with a combined opponent winning percentage of .512. They've lost consecutive games against the Hawks and Heat without superstar Steph Curry, who is expected to return on Friday against the Pelicans. Starting next week, they play four in a row against top-five teams in the West. And they're now going to be without a key bench player in Gary Payton II, who is dealing with a thumb injury.
The Clippers have the next-toughest schedule, with a combined opponent win percentage of .497. They only play three teams with a winning record, but one of those is the Cavs. The Mavericks also got Anthony Davis back from injury recently. That game against the Warriors at the Chase Center to wrap up the regular season could loom large here. LA has won nine of its last 11 games.
The Wolves, who are a half-game back, have the easiest remaining schedule of the three. Their nine opponents have a .444 winning percentage. Five of the final nine are against bottom-six teams in the entire NBA. Of course, the Wolves have some bad losses this season, most recently against the lowly Pelicans last week. After dropping three of their last four, they're hoping to rediscover the edge they found during their eight-game winning streak to start this month.
In the event of a two-way tie for sixth, the Wolves would hold the tiebreaker over the Clippers (they went 3-0 against them this season) but not the Warriors (1-3). The Clippers are 3-0 against the Warriors and thus hold the tiebreaker there regardless of what happens on April 13.
If it's a three-way tie, assuming the Lakers hold on and win the Pacific Division, the Wolves will win the tiebreaker. If the Warriors win the final game against the Clippers to set up a three-way tie, the Wolves win the tiebreaker because they're 4-3 against the other two teams, while the Warriors would be 4-4 and the Clippers 3-4. If the Clippers win, they'd be tied with the Wolves at 4-3, so it would go to conference record, where the Wolves have the best mark at 29-19.
As you can see, things are set up pretty nicely for the Wolves to avoid the play-in if they can take care of business. They've got the easiest remaining schedule of the three teams and they hold a two-way tiebreaker over the Clippers (but not GSW) and a three-way tiebreaker over both teams.
This should be a fun race to follow over the final two-plus weeks of the regular season.