Faced with a razor-thin Republican majority in the US House of Representatives, President Donald Trump on Thursday decided to withdraw the nomination of Elise Stefanik for Ambassador to UN, as he fears an election to replace her could result in a Democratic victory.
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Stefanik is a strong Trump ally, and no great friend to Ukraine or to Europe at large, just as Trump likes his UN ambassadors, but removing her from her Congressional post could jeopardize the Republicans’ 218-213 majority in the lower house.
(Unlike in the Senate, where a state’s governor appoints a replacement for a senator who dies, resigns or otherwise leaves the post, the vacancy of a seat in the House of Representatives requires a special election in that Congressional district. )
While Stefanik won her seat with a breezy 62 percent of votes in 2024, the northern New York State district she represents was divided on presidential elections, with some countries blue, some red. Trump convincingly lost the state as a whole hat same year, garnering just 43 percent.
Republicans on Capitol Hill were unsurprised with the move, as conservatives have been reminded through recent budget talks just how slim a mandate they have, and how critical Steafnik’s New York seat has become.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) said the move was a no-brainer: “They just realized that now?” she asked.
Trump has not yet offered an alternate nomination to the ambassadorship, but analysts strongly suspect that candidate would have similarly skeptical views of Europe and a relatively friendly position toward the Kremlin.
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According to the watchdog group GOPforukraine.com, Stefanik voted in favor of Amendment 21 to H.R. 2670, the National Defense Authorization Act, which would have stricken $300 million of assistance for Ukraine. She also voted down H.R. 8035, the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2024, which ultimately unlocked $61 billion in funding for Kyiv.
“The White House [administration of then-President Joe Biden] has not answered questions as to how those dollars are going to be spent, what is the ultimate goal when it comes to Ukraine… When it comes to Israel, though, our most precious ally in the Middle East, we need to make sure that we’re standing strongly and that people are going to have to make a decision,” she said in November 2023.
During her confirmation hearing in January of this year, Stefanik walked back her previous comments about Russian “genocide” in Ukraine, and was careful not to antagonize the Kremlin as an aspiring Trump team member. She noted only that she fully supported Trump’s efforts to bring peace to Ukraine.
While she cannot exactly be considered a strong advocate for Kyiv, there’s no guarantee that her replacement for the post will be any better.
While Trump has made it clear he intends to decimate those UN programs he views as wasteful, he needs a like-minded ally in that seat by New York’s East River to carry out his vision. At the moment, the acting ambassador is Dorothy Shea, a career diplomat originally appointed by Biden as Deputy Representative of the US to the United Nations. She took the place of Biden-appointed ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield who departed upon Trump’s inauguration.
While Trump and his isolationist base have downplayed the influence that the UN should wield, the US permanent seat on the body’s Security Council has considerable sway in brokering ceasefires, for example, between Ukraine and Russia.
On Wednesday, Stéphane Dujarric, spokesperson for UN Secretary-General António Guterres, commented on the most recent progress in peace talks, noting, “Reaching an agreement on freedom of navigation in the Black Sea to ensure the protection of civilian vessels and port infrastructure, will be a crucial contribution to global food security and supply chains, reflecting the importance of trade routes from both Ukraine and the Russian Federation to global markets.
“The Secretary-General reiterates his hope that such efforts will pave the way for a durable ceasefire and contribute to achieving a just, comprehensive and lasting peace in Ukraine, in line with the UN Charter, international law and relevant UN resolutions and in full respect of Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he added.