Taking a look at the state of the top 5 race in England
The Premier League title is all but decided, my latest run has Liverpool 99.2% to win and it would take a historical collapse previously unseen and pretty hard to imagine. I would love to live in that world but I am realistic in that it is over and has really been over since December when Saka was lost to injury.
The relegation race is actually even less close. My simulation model has Southampton at 100% to go back down, it isn’t mathematically true yet but given they have 9 points in 29 matches I think it is a stretch to think that they will turn around a 17 point gap (nearly double their point total this season) in just 9 matches. It is not nearly as bad for Ipswich and Leicester this season but it just about as hopeless given both are 9 points back of safety and have the weight of a bad goal difference working against them. They are both at 99.6% to be relegated right now.
That leaves the race for the European spots left to be decided.
This will be the main story line left in the Premier League and at least it will be interesting and there are a lot of teams in contention here with the teams in 3rd to 10th only separated by 10 points.
Right now it looks like a points total of 63-65 points could be enough for 5th place.
Realistically to guarantee Champions League it is looking like 68-69 points or more will be required and getting to 70 or more it is punching the ticket to the Champions League for sure.
Let’s take a look at the state of the race
The going to qualify teams
Liverpool have already won the 70 points required and are going to win the League, no more discussion needed on them. They are at 100% to qualify.
Arsenal are basically a lock after their win against Chelsea got them to 58 points. They need 12 points from their last 9 matches to make it.
Arsenal don’t have the easiest schedule remaining and it would be very helpful for this to not become a thing if they can just win the next two matches and have this very on ice. The complicating factor is that they have their quarterfinal against Real Madrid in between the Everton, Brentford, and Ipswich matches making those all a bit harder given that the focus will rightly be on Europe for them.
Depending on how things go the Crystal Palace and Bournemouth matches are probably the trickiest ones. These are teams that I think very highly of but they could be in the “don’t give an F” zone at this point and that could turn these from tougher matches to ones that carry a bit less intensity. The final day match of Southampton at home could be a nice buffer if points are needed on the final day as well.
Arsenal would have to collapse pretty hard to not make it and my model has them at 99.9% to finish in the top five this season.
The Incumbents
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest have been the Cinderella story of the season and they look like they will have just enough runway to hold on to one of the top 5 positions this season.
They are fortunate to be in this position, earning more points than their performance would have indicated but the good thing is that it really doesn’t matter at this stage because you don’t have to get those points back and there is probably not enough time for variance to swing back around on them.
The sit in third place on 54 points with a 5 point lead on Chelsea, 6 points on Manchester City, and 7 points (game played more) over Newcastle. That isn’t quite as safe as Arsenal but a 16 more points from their last 9 gets them to the promised land and even a few less points might be enough this season when they need to just not get over taken by three teams.
The remaining schedule is one of the easier ones ranking 19th (only Manchester City’s is easier) on paper giving them a really clear path to one of the spots.
Forest are not a great team but they have been hard to beat and the matches they have remaining being hard to beat and scraping some wins might be just enough.
My model has them at about 65-66 points and more likely to finish 4th or 5th than hold on to 3rd but still over 60% to be in the Champions League next season. That would be huge for them and a great story.
Manchester City
Manchester City are next in the table and they are the most likely team outside of Liverpool/Arsenal to qualify for the Champions League (baring any points deductions or punishment) this season in the model and the betting odds.
This has been a disappointment of a season and a far cry from what was expected of them with many of the cans they kicked down the road coming to roost and some weaknesses in squad building getting exposed by injury. City have been good but they are significantly worse than the teams that felt inevitable since Pep took over.
They still look like the third best team and are rounding into form some, they have a favorable remaining schedule that should be enough to see them safely into the top 5.
The final five matches could be a very “DGF” schedule when they are played and could see them finish on a strong note and looking scary for next season.
My model has them with a 77% chance of making the top 5 and I think that feels about right. This team has the potential to slip up and drop points you don’t expect but things have lined up well enough that they have the clearest path to 70+ points here.
Chelsea
Chelsea are in 4th place which should put them in an advantageous position but they look the most vulnerable of the teams here in their spot. They are better than Forest but they have a smaller gap to the teams chasing them. They have performed better than Manchester City this season but their recent form and injuries has them moving in the wrong direction. It is looking like teams are starting to adapt to them and many of the openings that they could exploit previously are gone and the weakness in the team remains.
The schedule they have remaining is tricky, they have three matches against rivals for Europe and all three of them are away from home. They also have two London derby’s and get to host Liverpool still. They also have the Conference League to contend with that while not as demanding as the Champions League or even the Europa League will give them fewer rest and training days as they go through the rest of the season as favorites to win that.
My model still likes them to finish between 3rd and 5th and has them at 67% to qualify for the Champions League but I still think this team is one slip up that doesn’t seem far-fetched from real trouble here.
The Field
Newcastle
Newcastle are a win of their game in hand of being in the group above.
They have won a trophy already and ended a long trophy drought but I still expect that these players will be hungry for a return for the Champions League. I imagine that they have some big bonuses attached to that and there will be plenty of incentive for them to prove that is where they belong.
The remaining schedule is about average and the harder matches tilted towards the end of the season. They also have the advantage of 6 of their last 10 are at St. James Park where they have a pretty healthy advantage historically.
The head to head matches against Aston Villa, Brighton, and Chelsea will be key for them if they are going to finish in the top 5 this season.
My model is a bit skeptical of them with a 46% chance of getting into the top 5 but they have a clear path and control their own destiny here.
Brighton
Brighton have sneakily looked like they have things figured out lately and given that they are just a two points back of Chelsea and point back of Manchester City they have a realistic shot here. Over the last ten matches played they have been the third best team (Liverpool 1st, Crystal Palace 2nd) and while the schedule has been a bit soft it has still been an impressive run of form for them.
They will have some big games against team close to them also gunning for the final spots, a tough away match to Crystal Palace, and late visit from Liverpool. The big thing I am seeing is that there are very few easy matches in the Premier League these days and while this isn’t a gauntlet of a run in, it will still present some challenges.
My model has them on 61 points and gives them a 27% chance of finishing in the top 5. A win this midweek would be huge for them.
Fulham
Fulham have been an underrated team all season and if they had a bit of luck it could have been them in the spot where Nottingham Forest have been.
As things stand that they are a further two points back and will need to jump more teams makes them a tough team to back. They still could finish in a European spot and that would be a fair reflection of their season.
I am talking down against them here because the schedule they have remaining is just brutal ranking third hardest. The four match run of Arsenal, Liverpool, Bournemouth and Chelsea is probably just too much for them to get the points they need here. They also have Aston Villa and finish with City.
If they are able to get top 5 it will have been earned given what they had in this run in. My model thinks it is a long shot at just 1% and puts them at just 55 points and winning just 10 points from the last 9 here.
Aston Villa
I have been hating on Aston Villa a bit lately. I look at this roster and can’t help but think that it is more talented than 9th place being outscored. They probably got more out of the team last year and have bounced back getting less from the talent. It has also been a bit of an Unai Emery special at times where the tactics have not set them up to win points.
This team has just been a massive under performer compared to last season’s team that came in 4th place.
They are 13 points worse, having had a 21-goal swing against them (they had some positive variance last season and have been negative this season). I don’t think the team has been significantly less talented this season looking at the roster but it has played that way.
The schedule the rest of the way is not set up for success, the next two matches are very high leverage for them and then they have Southampton sandwiched around their PSG Champions League match before facing two more direct rivals for top 5 with matches against Newcastle and Manchester City.
This is a tough month for them and it could be historic on one extreme or it could be depressing on the other side going out of the Champions League and being all but eliminated from qualification for Europe next season.
My model likes them a bit more than Fulham giving them a 5% chance on 57 points.
Bournemouth
The final team we are looking at today is Bournemouth. They have been one of the strongest performing teams this season (5th on just this season performance) but they have had injury issues that have finally caught up with them and seen them not quite keep pace with the teams above them.
They are starting to get some guys back and it might be just enough time to be the dark horse team to get into Europe.
They have some favorable sequencing for the fixtures with very winnable matches up first before a pivotal match against Fulham. They do have Arsenal, Aston Villa, and Manchester City to end the season but there is a chance all of those teams are a bit on the beach and maybe they can surprise.
I can’t quite talk myself into them even though I really like this team. I have them at 59 points and probably going to the Conference League but they are still looking like they at 14% to qualify for the Champions League here.
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Now that we have gone through the teams, I am curious to see what you all think about the different teams’ chances? I have two polls here and want to see who you think is most likely to drop out of the top 5 (I know there are too many here and at most 3 of these five will make it).
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The last question is for who of the chasing pack could surprise (even if it might end up being none of them)?
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