A Dari-language article in the Afghan press assesses the lessons learnt from the Western failure in Afghanistan, arguing that any strategy should have also included regional players such as China, Russia, and Pakistan, in order to avoid a power vacuum.
"Western governments, by focusing solely on state-building and neglecting other consequential factors, essentially failed to properly understand the shifting balance of power in the region and the world," the article states.
The article, titled "The Great Failure Of The United States In The War In Afghanistan" and published by Sarie News, notes that European countries will need their own military power to enter Afghanistan-like situations.
"In the current situation, where the significant migration of the Afghan people to European countries is increasing, Europe may soon conclude that it should not have relied on the capabilities of a country like the United States to enter the battlefield in Afghanistan," it says, adding: "Without American military planes, America's allies could not have evacuated their forces and personnel from Afghanistan."
Following are excerpts from the article, as translated from Dari:
"The United States Spent Over Two Trillion Dollars In Afghanistan In An Attempt To Establish Governance Institutions And Structures – However, We Witnessed That All Of These Infrastructures Collapsed Within A Few Weeks"
"The war in Afghanistan has always and at all times been considered a major failure and a great defeat for the United States. The high costs of this war, contrasted with its very limited achievements, highlight a fundamental question: Why was this war initiated? Over the course of 20 years of war in Afghanistan, more than 48,000 Afghan civilians, at least 66,000 Afghan military personnel, and 3,500 NATO soldiers lost their lives.
"The United States spent over two trillion dollars in Afghanistan in an attempt to establish governance institutions and structures. However, we witnessed that all of these infrastructures collapsed within a few weeks.
"The irresponsible withdrawal of the United States, which created a power vacuum, proved that the people of Afghanistan have been left stranded and abandoned in the absence of a state and national leadership. For the West, the current duty and mission is to review its lessons from Afghanistan and take them as a guiding principle moving forward.
"The first lesson that can be drawn from the Afghanistan disaster is that the use of foreign military force is not a wise strategy for effectively and sustainably advancing the agenda of 'regime change.' The West completely failed in building a modern, democratic, and strong state that could significantly counter threats.
"Within this framework, the United States effectively fell into a similar trap to the one it faced after its illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003. Only a short time after the U.S. attack on Afghanistan, Iraq witnessed a surge in terrorist activities, which in turn paved the way for the emergence of the group 'ISIS.' Similarly, we witnessed this in Libya, where NATO's action in overthrowing Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi plunged the country into chaos, insecurity, and civil war."
"China Could Have Been An Effective Player In Afghanistan's Developments. However, From The Very Beginning, It Was Kept Out Of The Afghanistan Equation – Without A Doubt, China Could Have Made Significant Investments In Afghanistan And Helped Move The Country Forward"
"Overall, it must be said that the very idea of 'nation-building' from the top down (forced nation-building) is fundamentally flawed and doomed to failure from the outset. This model assumes that military presence in a country and the influx of resources will inevitably lead to security, development, and democratic governance. However, nation-building requires popular support and can only succeed when carried out by local representatives who are perceived as legitimate by the people.
"This element was significantly absent in Afghanistan. The United States, by relying on warlords who had committed numerous wrongful acts on Afghan soil and who also fled during the recent crisis in Afghanistan, effectively made a substantial portion of the Afghan nation lose trust in it.
"From a broader perspective, the idea that existing institutions in a country can easily be replaced with new ones has largely proven to be incorrect. Most governments have been formed through a gradual process of cooperation and compromise over time, rather than by external forces and actors. Therefore, persuading nations, as opposed to coercion and superficial imitations in the context of nation and state-building, will yield far better results.
"The second lesson that can be drawn from 20 years of failure and war in Afghanistan is that state-building must be accompanied by regional strategies. Approaches that ignore key regional players are not realistic. Western governments, by focusing solely on state-building and neglecting other consequential factors, essentially failed to properly understand the shifting balance of power in the region and the world.
"China could have been an effective player in Afghanistan's developments. However, from the very beginning, it was kept out of the Afghanistan equation. Without a doubt, China could have made significant investments in Afghanistan and helped move the country forward. Nevertheless, this did not happen, and this opportunity was wrongly wasted, leaving the people of Afghanistan unable to benefit from the country's development."
"Similarly, Greater Cooperation And A More Active Presence Of Russia In Afghanistan Could Have Transformed Afghanistan's Northern Corridors Into Hubs That Would Bring Prosperity And Economic Growth To The Country"
"Similarly, greater cooperation and a more active presence of Russia in Afghanistan could have transformed Afghanistan's northern corridors into hubs that would bring prosperity and economic growth to the country. However, this did not happen, and Afghanistan remains largely dependent on the southern corridors along the Pakistan border for trade and meeting its essential needs. This has effectively given Pakistan a significant leverage in Afghanistan's affairs.
"Moreover, the United States, through actors such as Saudi Arabia, which has made significant investments in Pakistan and is a close partner of Washington, could have exerted pressure on the Pakistani government to play a more effective and constructive role in Afghanistan's affairs. However, this opportunity was also lost.
"Ultimately, the last lesson that can be learned from the Afghanistan disaster is related to Europe. It is a lesson that reminds Europe that it must develop its capabilities in alignment with its strategic interests. Given the shifting balance of power and the global power corridors, Europe must significantly reconsider its reliance on the power and international capabilities of the United States.
"The process of the withdrawal of American forces and their allies from Afghanistan by American planes clearly shows what is at stake. Without American military planes, America's allies could not have evacuated their forces and personnel from Afghanistan. In the current situation, where the significant migration of the Afghan people to European countries is increasing, Europe may soon conclude that it should not have relied on the capabilities of a country like the United States to enter the battlefield in Afghanistan."
Source: Sarie.news (Afghanistan), February 24, 2025.