Onto the Vikings draft preview. Last year's most overachieving team picks right after the Packers in the first round and then has just three more picks. For years, the analytics have said GMs should do all they can to gather more draft picks because the draft is little more than a crapshoot for even the best scouts. The Vikings GM, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, the league's foremost analytic GM, has taken this theory to its logical conclusion by trading most of his picks for veterans. This probably does help inasmuch as you can usually tell which NFL veterans are good players, but it makes it hell on the salary cap to barely have any rookie contracts. We'll see how the strategy goes.
Needs
The lack of draft picks paired with a surplus of cap space caused the Vikings to go HAM in free agency. They signed several big-name free agents and brought back guys like Harrison Smith, Aaron Jones and Byron Murphy Jr. The buying spree shored up most of their needs, though they could definitely use a guard, linebacker and corner still. Safety and running back are in need of a succession plan. Interestingly, their biggest need right now is QB.
Kwesi reportedly drafted JJ McCarthy last year without the blessing of head coach Kevin O'Connell and McCarthy proceeded to get a freak leg injury in the pre-season. Now, they've let Sam Darnold go after a dream season and seem to have no interest in Aaron Rodgers. I doubt Kwesi will go full analytics and take a QB again this year, but we do need to recognize that lack of QB could kill a team with the best supporting cast in the NFL.
First Round
The most common prediction for the Vikings' first-round pick is a trade-down. I think there's probably a 50/50 shot of that happening. As before mentioned, the analytical approach would be to gather more picks to take more chances at hitting on a great player on a rookie deal.
If they don't trade down, I would guess they'd go defensive back with the first-round pick. Maybe even if they do trade down. A do-it-all safety like Nick Emmanwori or shutdown corner like Jahdae Barrn could be the final piece this defense needs.
Third Round
Assuming the team stays pat and has just one third, I think they go QB or guard with it. Those are probably the two biggest needs but neither is one they'd spend a first on. They could take a page out of the Packers playbook and draft a short-armed tackle with a good short shuttle here to play guard or gamble on someone like Riley Leonard or Dillon Gabriel at QB knowing there's a legitimate chance that guy will start sometime in the next year or two.
Another option would be to gather more defensive line depth (edge Andrew van Ginkel weighs like 220 pounds and the interior guys are like 40). The best way to do that would either be to draft a freak athlete at edge or an unmovable run-first defensive tackle. Both of those options have proven good investments in the third round in the past.
Fifth and Sixth Round
I know these picks don't matter but there were only two other ones so we should at least talk about them. If it were up to me, I'd go for a speedy wide receiver and a super athletic offensive linemen. The receiver can potentially clear out space for your two all-pros there and the offensive lineman can develop into a starter potentially a la Rasheed Walker.
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Mike Price is a lifelong Packers fan who recently moved from Utah to Stoughton (a Madison suberb). You can follow him on twitter at @themikeprice.
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