It's become increasingly rare for NBA stars to change hands via free agency in recent years. Thanks to the 2025 NBA trade deadline, that trend is unlikely to change this offseason.
Jimmy Butler and Brandon Ingram were poised to be two of the best free agents this year. However, both got dealt ahead of the Feb. 6 trade deadline and signed extensions with their new teams, taking them off the market before they ever had a chance to test it.
As of now, Myles Turner, Brook Lopez, D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley are among the best players who are set to become unrestricted free agents this summer. LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Julius Randle and Naz Reid could join them by declining their respective player options, but few (if any) of them are likely to leave their current teams. Some might pick up their player options in lieu of becoming free agents at all.
A handful of intriguing players are set to become restricted free agents, including Jonathan Kuminga, Josh Giddey and Quentin Grimes. However, few teams are projected to have enough salary-cap space to pry them away from their incumbent teams. The Brooklyn Nets should have nearly $55 million of spending power, according to Keith Smith of Spotrac, but they're the only team currently projected to have more than $25 million.
That's setting the stage for a relatively quiet free agency where teams largely make additions around the margins rather than a big free-agent splash.
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The Bleak Market
The Nets should have enough cap space to offer a max contract to any free agent, even one with 10-plus years of NBA experience who can receive up to 35% of the cap. But barring a surprise, they'll have a tough time finding a free agent who's worthy of that type of payday.
LeBron is highly unlikely to leave Luka Dončić and the Los Angeles Lakers to join a rebuilding Nets team without a second star. Irving just tore his ACL, so he might decide to pick up his $44.0 million player option and test free agency in 2026 once he's healthy again. Even if not, his Nets tenure flamed out in dramatic fashion two years ago, so neither side might be open to a reunion. The same goes for James Harden, who figures to stay in L.A. with Kawhi Leonard on the Clippers.
Nets general manager Sean Marks does have a history of throwing bloated offer sheets at restricted free agents, which should have the Golden State Warriors, Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers nervous about Kuminga, Giddey and Grimes, respectively. However, the Nets might wind up being the only team that can offer more than the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception outside of sign-and-trades.
Teams won't necessarily rush to use the non-taxpayer MLE or acquire free agents via sign-and-trade, either. Doing either would hard-cap them at the $195.9 million first apron, which would limit their financial flexibility over the remainder of the league year. Some teams instead might choose to save their MLE to use it as an in-season trade exception.
Outside of a few exceptions—notably Isaiah Hartenstein and Tobias Harris—the NBA's middle class largely had to settle for lower-than-expected contracts in free agency last year. Although the salary cap is expected to increase by the full 10% that it's allowed to rise year-over-year, we might be headed for a repeat of that this offseason.
The Player Option Dilemma
Since cap space projects to be so sparse throughout the league, free agency figures to be a buyer's market. That could set the stage for some team-friendly deals.
It also raises a dilemma for a number of players with player options in their contracts.
Take Randle, who has a $30.9 million player option. His numbers are slightly down this year relative to what he did with the New York Knicks over the previous five seasons, but he's earned three All-Star nods and made two All-NBA teams in the past half-decade. That's the resume of a typical max-contract player. But if the Nets aren't interested in signing Randle, where would that huge contract come from?
Randle's teammate, Naz Reid, figures to decline his $15.0 million player option and re-sign with the Minnesota Timberwolves, which could further complicate Randle's decision matrix. If he opts out, would the Timberwolves even be willing to re-sign him at the value of his player option?
The decision should be easier for players such as Khris Middleton ($34.0 million) and John Collins ($26.6 million), both of whom should pick up their player options without thinking twice. It’s less clear for Milwaukee Bucks forward Bobby Portis ($13.4 million) and Sixers forward Kelly Oubre Jr. ($8.4 million), who might be hoping for more in free agency but could be forced to settle for less if they can't find a team that's willing to use the non-taxpayer MLE on them.
Values Abound
Last summer, Tyus Jones, Gary Trent Jr. and Delon Wright all wound up settling for one-year, veteran-minimum contracts. Beasley signed a one-year, $6 million deal with the Detroit Pistons, while Russell Westbrook took a two-year, $6.8 million deal with the Denver Nuggets.
Beasley, Kuminga and Grimes figure to be headed for hefty raises this offseason, which would affect how much cap space is available across the league. Established veterans such as Lopez, Clint Capela and Malcolm Brogdon might not have to settle for minimum deals, but they could struggle to land hefty contracts if they don't re-sign with their current teams.
Tre Jones could be an under-the-radar value if he decides to leave the Chicago Bulls. Since arriving in Chicago at the trade deadline, he’s averaging 11.5 points on 57.2% shooting, 4.9 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 1.1 steals in only 25.3 minutes per game. If the Bulls re-sign Giddey, Jones might prefer a shot at a starting job rather than being stuck behind Giddey and Coby White. The 25-year-old won't keep shooting nearly 60% overall and 50% from three-point range, but he could bolster any team's backcourt.
Dennis Schröder, Caris LeVert, Larry Nance Jr. and Moe Wagner are among the other free agents who could make a difference in the right role, even though none possess superstar upside at this point in their respective careers. Given the market dynamics, teams might have to focus more on hitting singles and doubles than home runs in free agency this year.
Beasley, Westbrook, Kris Dunn and Guerschon Yabusele were all relatively inexpensive signings this past offseason that have generated positive return on investment. Some teams are bound to find similar values this summer. Although this free-agent class lacks much star power—and teams are largely devoid of cap space—landing a rotation regular at a below-market rate can still increase a team's championship chances.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats viaNBA.com,PBPStats,Cleaning the Glass orBasketball Reference. All salary information viaSpotrac and salary-cap information viaRealGM. All odds viaFanDuel Sportsbook.
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